On the Michigan Game (NCAAF)

At least one major sports website has already branded Appalachian State’s victory at Michigan one of the greatest upsets in college football history, and I have no doubt that is true. The fact that they are a I-AA team, the fact that it happened in the Big House, the fact that they stopped Michigan on two key two-point conversions, they fact that they squeezed a game-winning two-minute drive in between two blocked field goals—no question this game was special. But I got to wondering, how unlikely was it?

As you probably know by now, Appalachian State isn’t just any I-AA team. They’re a little I-AA dynasty, back-to-back national champions. This was the kind of David and Goliath matchup that reminds you David was already God’s anointed by the time of his most famous duel. (If you believe Jim Harbaugh, the Michigan players are all philistines, too.)

Now, I don’t know how you feel about computer rankings, but they’re one tool for measuring how well different groups of teams match up against each other. Jeff Sagarin’s ratings put I-A and I-AA teams into the same pool. Last year, Appalachian State finished 53rd in those rankings, ahead of quality teams like Houston, Alabama and Purdue. The year before, they finished 69th.

One way is to consider a direct analogy. Marshall was the I-AA dynasty of the mid-90s, and then made the leap to D-IA. They proceeded to lose only four games in three years, collecting wins over South Carolina, Louisville and Clemson along the way. By ’99, they had an undefeated season and cracked the top ten. Under current rules, they would’ve made the BCS. Now, that last team featured Randy Moss and eventually Chad Pennington, but the initial Marshall squad couldn’t have been too much better than App State, and they won the MAC. It’s not totally unreasonable to believe the numbers above.

However, these rankings are probably inflated at least a bit. The nature of a knockout playoff system is that, obviously, somebody wins a bunch of games in a row against good opponents. Since there is some luck involved with this method, this team will be ranked a little higher than they probably deserve. In his preseason ratings this year, Sagarin had Appalachian State at number 80, which is still ahead of Michigan’s conference opponents Indiana and Illinois. Although, considering that Appalachian State won the title twice in a row, then beat Michigan, maybe Sagarin had it right the first time.

Either way, they are comparable to some I-A teams, probably better than other Top 25 opponents Mississippi State, East Carolina or Baylor and certainly much better than anybody in the Sun Belt. If they’re really as good as Alabama or Purdue was last year, it is not at all out of the question for them to beat a Wolverines team that is still putting together a new defense. If they’re only an Indiana, they could still be dangerous. In the last five years, Indiana has three wins against ranked opponents, including one road win in 2004. Michigan has a history too. They had a close call against San Diego State three years ago, only winning 24-21 against a team that was less talented, less experienced, less well-coached and more frightened than the one they faced yesterday.

It was a crazy game, no question, and certainly deserves to be mentioned as one of the greatest upsets ever. But I’m still not sure it was one of the unlikeliest.