Mike, On the North Divisions (NFL)

I turned on my television Saturday afternoon, and there, right before my eyes, I saw a game we here in America like to call football. And all was right with the world.

Yes, college football began in earnest last weekend, and before I get to the people who get paid to play the sport, I will simply acknowledge that yes, Appalachian State just beat the school for which I root, which also happens to be the school I had losing to USC in the title game. Shows you how accurate I can be sometimes. Anyway, my interest will return to college football next Labor Day, as I have simply chalked this season up to a loss. All of it. Ok, now – moving on to the big fellas.

This will be a five part preview. Each day this week, I will preview one division in each conference, with the playoff picks coming the final day. The schedule will be as follows [Ed. note: if I can get them published in time]:

Monday – AFC & NFC North
Tuesday – AFC & NFC South
Wednesday – AFC & NFC East
Thursday – AFC & NFC West
Friday – Playoffs & Super Bowl

So, with the housekeeping complete, it’s time to cue Hank Williams and bring up division number one.

AFC North
I think this division will be highly competitive, if for no other reason than every team has some major holes to go along with their clear strengths. First off, while I believe the Browns will be improved and have a very outside chance at .500, they will most likely finish fourth once again. I truly hope this doesn’t cost Romeo Crennel his job, because he’s worked wonders with scraps for the past two years and should be given at least two years to develop Brady Quinn to work with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. The offense is just one or two linemen short from being playoff caliber, so hopefully Romeo gets to see another year.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh will struggle to score points again, because quite frankly, Big Ben isn’t really that good, and new coach Mike Tomlin has apparently soured on Willie Parker. The loss of Joey Porter will hurt from a leadership standpoint, but I still think the defense is what will keep them afloat with an outside playoff shot. Their issue will be trying to score on Baltimore and stop Cincinnati, two things I don’t think they’ll be able to do enough of to win more than once in the four games against those two teams combined.

The Ravens still have an excellent defense, and if McNair can once again stay healthy, this team should win the division. Ed Reed is legitimately one of the five best safeties in all of football, and the scheme itself is perfectly designed to stop the run, pressure the quarterback, and let the athletes at linebacker and defensive back make the plays. Brian Billick just needs to get out of his own way and allow the offense to be creative, rather than stifling it to the point where you get last year’s Colts-Ravens postseason game, where neither team scored a TD. That can’t happen if Baltimore wants to win another championship.

Lost in the whole “Michael Vick/Pacman Jones” uproar is the fact that the Bengals could field an entire side of the ball just using team members who’ve been arrested in the past 18 months. Until Marvin Lewis (or someone above him) decides to clean up the act along the banks of the Ohio, a great offense featuring a top tier QB (Palmer) and two top tier WR’s (CJ & TJ) will continually be undermined by a lack of team cohesion. This is truly a great offense to watch, and it’s a shame they haven’t been able to play a full postseason game together. This could be the year – if the team shapes up and steers its attention towards on field play rather than off-field antics.

Pick: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland

NFC North
Only in the NFC North can John Kitna say that his team, arguably the worst franchise in the sport, could jump from 3-13 to 10-6 and no one considers putting him in an institution. Why? Because Rex Grossman led his team not only to a division championship, but a Super Bowl. So imagine what Kitna’s thinking when he sees Roy Williams on one side and Calvin Johnson on the other. Yes, the Lions offense will be better than the Bears. Will it be good enough to beat the Bears and win the division? I don’t think so, but it could be fun watching competitive football on Thanksgiving for the first time since I was born.

Meanwhile, the Monsters of the Midway have their own issues. Lance Briggs doesn’t really want to be there, Tank Johnson, thanks to the American judicial system, isn’t there, and I’m fairly confident my 12-year-old sister could at least be the backup QB. Couple that with a first place schedule and the loss of Thomas Jones, and things could get dicey in Chi-town. Soldier Field is still standing, though, and there isn’t another team that I can honestly say is better than the Bears in this division, so I guess they could wind up being the pick by default. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it does come with a home playoff game.

The wild card here is Green Bay. Favre wouldn’t keep coming back if he didn’t think his team could compete, and they showed at the end of last season that there definitely is some talent being assembled by the Pack. The big question is Donald Driver’s health, because if he can play a full season and be Brett’s go-to receiver, it would only increase the development of the younger players while giving Favre a reliable target with whom he is comfortable and familiar. Schedule is somewhat favorable, so game against Detroit and Chicago could be crucial.

Oh, and the Vikings still play football. Poor Adrian Peterson. When someone other than Tavaris Jackson is playing quarterback, let me know and I’ll consider taking a deeper look into this team. Winter is long in Minneapolis, and the Vikings will not be doing anything to ease the difficulties of the season this year. This is one of three teams, in my mind, that will contend for the top pick in next year’s draft, which is good because it should be a strong QB class. My only suggestion, after this weekend – don’t take Chad Henne.

Pick: Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota