On Week 5 Football

It’s a good thing I got my gloating in last week, because my latest picks were pretty bad. Although both games were at least close, I lost on favored Alabama and Penn State. Also, I thought South Carolina would give LSU more of a game than they did. Not good.

What we did learn, from both sides, is that the gap between LSU and the rest of the SEC West is indeed very large, considering Alabama and Arkansas both dropped their games.

Also, from Penn State’s loss to a 1-2 team, we learned that the Big Ten might be back down to Ohio State and Michigan. Or pretty close.

Now, this week’s games:

West Virginia at South Florida. Thanks to Louisville’s loss against Syracuse, at home, this game has gotten ten times bigger. West Virginia is clearly the most talented team in the conference, but they drew Rutgers, Cincy and USF on the road, and all look dangerous. Meanwhile, South Florida is undefeated, has beaten a top ten team in each of the last two seasons, and has a favorable schedule. And remember, if they win, it would take two losses for WV to catch them.

Also, as an aside, Louisville’s Brian Brohm is in line to follow in Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn’s footsteps and drop down draft boards for no better reason than his defense can’t get a stop. I can’t wait for the Bills to pass on him.

California at Oregon. Two of the nation’s most explosive offenses meet. Not only will the winner of this game have a shot at USC for the Pac 10 title, but, thanks to the strength of the Pac 10, the winner of this game has an inside track at a BCS at-large bid even if they don’t beat the Trojans. This would be especially big for Oregon, who gets USC and Arizona State at home later and could start legitimately dreaming about a national title if they win.

Michigan State at Wisconsin. Anytime two undefeated Big Ten teams play, it’s a big game. Wisconsin has somehow managed to lose only one game of the 17 Bret Bielema has coached without creating any buzz whatsoever; if they had Michigan helmets, they’d be in the top five right now. Part of the reason is they haven’t managed a statement win against a quality team. Now would be a good time.

Predictions: West Virginia is too fast for USF, plain and simple. That’s all you really need to know. I think Tennessee could have beat Cal if they’d had one or two more good possessions, and Oregon has had a good possession just about every time this season. I think they will win surprisingly easily. Also, I think Wisconsin will take Michigan State, but it won’t be the quite the big win the Badgers are hoping for.

Picks: WV, Oregon, Wisconsin