On Week 1

Like last year, each week I’ll preview the three college football games with the most BCS implications. This doesn’t mean national title game per se, just the BCS picture in general.

In Week 1, there are generally only a few major games, and this year is no exception. A couple undercards of note are Virginia Tech-East Carolina, featuring an ACC contender visiting a C-USA favorite, and Tennessee-UCLA, who are both major conference darkhorses. But here are the big three:

#20 Illinois vs. #6 Missouri, at St. Louis. This was a shootout last year, but between two teams who were unranked at the time. In retrospect, it was one of the best games of the first month of the season. This year, we know that going in. Illinois will have to put pressure on Chase Daniel, who will look to get his Heisman candidacy going against two new safeties.

#24 Alabama vs. #9 Clemson, at Atlanta. This will be strength against strength and weakness against weakness. Alabama’s senior QB John Parker Wilson is up against a completely returning Clemson secondary, and on the other side of the ball Clemson will break in three new linemen against a defense replacing their all-conference DE and a couple of linebackers. If Clemson’s line does hold up, they’ve got a ton of great skill players.

Utah at Michigan. It’s not often a game where both teams are unranked makes the top three, but this one is special. Utah is one of the likeliest BCS crashers, and Michigan is Michigan. Utah is experienced and talented—as in their 44-6 win over UCLA last year. Michigan is installing a new offensive system and lost their four leading tacklers, but they have much more talent. And keep in mind that in the weeks before and after the UCLA game, Utah lost to Air Force and got shut out by UNLV.

Predictions: Missouri’s will be too good for the Illini. Illinois doesn’t have a replacement for Mendenhall, and Chase’s offense is almost impossible to stop. They broke 30 points in 13 of 14 games last year. In the same vein, Clemson has too many weapons for Alabama. Besides, don’t they usually play well early and then blow it at the end? In the third game, Utah will be more ready. Utah’s coach was Meyer’s DC, so it isn’t like his players won’t know how to defend the spread attack. Heck, they probably know it better than the Michigan offense. If this game were in November, Michigan would definitely have the edge. But it’s not.

Picks: Missouri, Clemson, Utah

On College Football 2008

And we’re back. College football kicked off last night with some boring games, as usual. With apologies to South Carolina and what’s left of Miami football, no one who played on opening Thursday has much of a chance of reaching the BCS. Let’s take a look ahead and preview the teams who do.

SEC

As usual, the SEC is the premier conference in college football. South Carolina, as noted above, isn’t a serious BCS contender, but that’s mostly because Florida and Georgia are both in the same division (Tennessee has the same problem). Those two are stacked.

Georgia brings back 17 starters from a team that won seven straight to end last year. Florida has 16 back, including Heisman winner Tebow. Aside from Tebow, what gives the Gators the edge is that Georgia’s schedule is absolutely brutal. The Jacksonville game against Florida counts as a home game this year, meaning they only have three SEC true home games. They get LSU, Auburn and Alabama, the good half of the SEC West. They even play at Arizona State, the best Pac 10 team outside of USC. In addition to getting beat up in general, the at LSU game is right before the Florida showdown, while Florida will have had three weeks to prepare after a bye and home Kentucky.

Auburn and LSU appear to be the class of the other half, and like Florida, Auburn has the kinder schedule. LSU travels to Auburn, as well as drawing Florida/SC/Georgia from the East, in three straight weeks no less. Auburn does have to play Georgia and Tennessee, but both at home. A sleeper team is Alabama, who lost six games last year by a TD or less each. Of course, they play at Georgia, Tennessee and LSU. They do have a bye before hosting Auburn in the final game of the season, though. What a brutal league.

Pick: Florida over Auburn

At-large BCS: Georgia

Big East

In contrast, here’s a soft conference. West Virginia still has Pat White and all five of his starting linemen, so they’ll put up points, but they lost seven defensive starters and their head coach, so they shouldn’t really be a national championship contender. On the other hand, who’s going to beat them?

The list pretty much starts and ends with the teams that managed it last year. South Florida was in the national title picture last year before dropping three straight close ones, and they have 17 returning starters. But they got exposed by Oregon in the Sun Bowl, and besides, they’re a warm weather team that has to travel to Morgantown in December. Probably won’t end well. Pitt has a veteran team and a home date. Whether they pull that upset or not, they’ll almost certainly have a few losses by then, so it won’t decide the conference.

Pick: West Virginia

ACC

If Tommy Bowden and Clemson don’t win the ACC this year, it will probably never happen. They have the talent, the experience, and almost no competition. Florida State has been in disarray for years. Boston College graduated all their key players. Wake Forest lost to Clemson by 34 last year, and the Deacs have less offensive firepower than ever. Even Virginia Tech is reloading after losing 5 NFL quality defenders, their RB and every major pass receiver. The Tigers two toughest games should be the bookends against SEC middleweights Alabama and South Carolina, and that’s just sad.

Pick: Clemson over Virginia Tech

Big Ten

Third time’s the charm or strike three for Ohio State. The national runners-up bring back 19 starters, including possibly the best player in college football, MLB James Laurinaitis. Not afraid to schedule big early games, the Buckeyes have a September 13 trip to USC.

But they won’t have it all their own way in conference either. Wisconsin, Penn State and Illinois are all veteran teams with plenty of talent. The Badgers are dangerous since they play all of the other three at home. The Nittany Lions are dangerous because they have every starting lineman back on both sides of the ball and have a ridiculous amount of speed on offense. Illinois proved they’re dangerous by beating all three of the others last year. They probably won’t repeat that, but all of them—and Missouri in week 1—had better watch out.

Pick: Ohio State

At-large BCS: Wisconsin

Big 12

The Big 12 has two teams coming off Top 10 finishes and New Year’s Day bowl wins—and not only are they both from the North division, but they’re Missouri and Kansas. That’s just weird. Given that both teams are bringing back their star QBs and most of their defense, they could do it again.

At least Oklahoma and Texas have the South down, like usual, right? Maybe not. They have plenty of talent, but both are breaking in inexperienced defenses, including three new starters in the secondary. That leaves them open to Texas Tech, who brings back ten starters from the offense that dropped 77 combined points on those two. They also have eight starters from a defense that has had four straight solid years, after accounting for how many plays a Texas Tech game tends to have. If Sam Bradford has any issues transitioning from freshman surprise to expected star, as many young QBs do, and Texas stumbles against a difficult schedule that includes both strong North teams, a split against the big two might send Texas Tech into the conference title game. Which would be weird.

Pick: Texas Tech over Missouri

At-large BCS: Oklahoma

Pac 10

USC is the best team in the conference, as always, but they’re not that great for USC. They have issues at both QB and O-line, which is a dangerous combination, and while they only lost four starters on D, three of those guys were NFL first-rounders and the other went in the second. They get all their toughest games at home, but they probably aren’t going to be up for Ohio State in their second game.

Arizona State is the only threat. They had a lot of good wins last year, and only lost to USC, Oregon with Dixon, and Texas. 13 starters return, including most of the stars. They’ll be tested in the second quarter of the season, playing Georgia at home before traveling to Cal and USC. The other conference contenders have major flaws. California lost most of its offensive firepower, and Oregon never really looked good without Dixon. Everyone else seems a year away.

Pick: USC

At-large BCS: Arizona State

Other Contenders:

Mt. West

Utah gets an opening week shot at a presumably still disorganized Michigan, which could become one of those wins that feels more impressive as the season goes on. If they pull that out, they have a legitimate chance to win out, as they will get both TCU and BYU at home. It’s a stretch, and the dream could be over in August. But it’s possible.

WAC

Boise State? They’ve got the new QB new O-line problem, so the odds of them running the table are pretty slim. Fresno State is a little more exciting, with ten offensive starters returning, no bad losses last year, and an early home game against Wisconsin off a bye week to get themselves onto the map. I don’t think they’ll beat Wisconsin, but they are probably the best team outside the Big Six conferences.

C-USA

Memphis? Oh wait, wrong sport.

MAC

No.

Sun Belt

This is impossible.

Notre Dame

They’re probably good enough to make some bowl this year, but not one of the good ones.

Final Picks

It’s going to be another tough season for a team to go undefeated. West Virginia and Clemson have the weakest conferences, but neither of them are really all that good, and further they don’t have the sort of passing attack to come from behind if they get into trouble. The Big 12 is deep enough to probably get at least one loss out of everybody, and the SEC certainly is. USC lost to Stanford last year, so their seeming invulnerability is out. Besides, Ohio State should be favored over them. The Buckeyes have the best chance at an unbeaten year and should reach the national title game…where an SEC team will be waiting.

BCS Champ: Florida over Ohio State

Orange: Oklahoma over Clemson

Sugar: Georgia over West Virginia

Fiesta: Texas Tech over Arizona State

Rose: USC over Wisconsin

On USC, Florida, and Yet Another ACC Game

Two weeks into the college football season, we’re starting to get a picture of how the season is going. The Pac 10 is dominating, the Big East really is that good after all, the SEC (duh) goes five or six deep, Michigan-Notre Dame is completely irrelevant, and the ACC still doesn’t have a marquee team.

In last week’s three games, some of the top teams created some separation between them and the pack. LSU deserves to be ranked #1 for now, and Texas-Oklahoma set themselves ahead of the pack in the Big 12, again. Also, like I said, Kyle Wright is now back in for Miami. Teams should play second-rate QBs against Oklahoma more often, so I can keep looking like I know what I’m talking about. Anyway, this week’s top 3 games:

1. #22 Tennessee at #5 Florida. I have a friend who loves Tennessee football, and for some reason, she hates Casey Clausen. I found this confusing because I always thought he did really well at UT. But here’s the thing: although I think it wasn’t his fault, the feeling probably comes from the fact that his teams failed to make the BCS while the window was open. When Clausen was an upperclassman, Spurrier was out and Zook was in. We didn’t yet know how good Mark Richt was—in retrospect, we can see that Georgia’s rise is almost perfectly invertible with Florida State’s decline, but that’s a whole different column. Now we can see Georgia is here to stay, Spurrier’s back around, Urban Meyer is bringing in enough talent to start USC East, and every SEC West team outside of Mississippi is better than they were five years ago. Tennessee’s window of opportunity has been closing ever since Casey’s days. It isn’t much of a stretch to imagine that a decisive Florida victory this week could shut it on Phil Fulmer permanently.

For their part, Florida will be looking to keep pace with LSU and keep themselves in the national title picture.

2. #21 Boston College at #15 Georgia Tech. ACC teams, if you’re keeping track, have now showed up on five of my nine big games so far. This is partly because they schedule early conference games, but mostly it is attributable to their status as the weakest BCS conference. Since no one has any clue who the best team in this conference might be, we have to keep watching to find out. Boston College, as noted before, is the most experienced team in the league, and boasts the best quarterback. They’ve been solid but unspectacular against Wake Forest and NC State. GT looked fabulous at Notre Dame and against Samford, but who knows what that’s worth? If they take care of BC, they could challenge for the top 10 next week. If BC wins, they will be 6-0 and Matt Ryan will be on the fringe of the Heisman race by mid-October.

3. #1 USC at #16 Nebraska. The Pac-10 has oozed quality so far, with Cal, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA and Washington all posting solid wins and cruising to 2-0. Meanwhile, with LSU, Florida and Oklahoma all impressing, it has been easy to forget that USC is still the odds-on favorite in the conference and the country. They will be out to remind people.

They’ll be up against pretty much the entire city of Lincoln. Nebraska is a good team, and QB Sam Keller played the 2005 Trojans tough when he was at Arizona State. If Nebraska can win, or even stay close, it will establish them not only as the early Big 12 North favorite, but a legitimate concern to the Oklahoma/Texas winner in the championship game.

As a side note, I put the ACC game ahead of this because as a conference game, I felt it has slightly more importance. This game is the best of the week in terms of combined team ranking, and the result is important to both programs and their conferences, but it does not impact either team's ability to win said conferences. So it drops to 3rd.

Predictions: I just don’t see Fulmer having the defense to get it done in the Swamp. Even with Caldwell missing, the Gators have weapons everywhere, and keep in mind this is the first team EVER in the third straight year of Urban Meyer’s offense. Nebraska doesn’t have the talent to hang around with USC, but few teams do. In the ACC, I’m taking BC in a slight upset. GT hasn’t seen a defense that could slow down Tashard Choice, and I think Taylor Bennett will have a tough time if he needs to pass to be successful. BC is more balanced and should get the win.

Picks: Florida, BC, USC

On a Big Week for the ACC Coastal and Big 12 South (NCAAF)

For most teams, this is the real opening week of college football season. The exhibition game is out of the way for traditional powerhouses: no more Youngstown State for Ohio State, Idaho for USC, or Michigan for Appalachian State.

Here are this week’s big three games:

1. #9 Virginia Tech at #2 LSU. This game replaces the Ohio State-Texas series as the only scheduled matchup between favorites of BCS conferences. These teams may have the best two defenses in the country. I would say we might have a repeat of LSU’s 7-3 game against Auburn last year, except that judging from LSU’s seven forced turnovers and VT’s pick six last week, the defenses themselves may score than ten points. VT’s O-line will have to be more convincing than they were against East Carolina (27 carries for 51 yards, 4 sacks) if they’re hoping to stop DT Glenn Dorsey, who could be starting in the NFL right now if he wanted to be.

2. #19 TCU at #7 Texas. Texas owes Oklahoma an onside kick. They needed a questionable penalty to nullify Arkansas State’s recovery late in their opener, which would have given the Indians (I bet you didn’t even know their mascot) a chance for a game-tying score. Oklahoma, as you may remember, lost out on a similar call at Oregon last season. Since Appalachian State is more than ten points better than Arkansas State, Texas probably really played the worst of any national title contender last week.

That won’t cut it this week. Along with the eventual winner of the Hawaii-Boise State game, TCU is the non-BCS team with the best shot at scoring an invite to one of the big bowls. This means their entire season is on the line against the Longhorns, and they know it. Two years ago, TCU knocked off #7 Oklahoma on the road in a similar game, and this year’s edition is even better than that one. They have nine defensive starters back from last year’s 11-2 squad, and pitched a shut out in the opener against Baylor. TCU is good enough to win, and good enough to be considered a legitimate statement game if Texas were to win convincingly.

3. Miami, FL at #5 Oklahoma. This is just a good college football game. These are two name-brand programs who smell blood in the water, as their conference favorites (see above) looked vulnerable last week and are at risk again this week. Meanwhile, these teams rolled. In beating North Texas 79-10, Oklahoma dominated their game about as much as is possible. In beating Marshall 31-3, though, Miami still played an incomplete game.

I wrote Miami in previously as a darkhorse title contender, but I would like to note that I withdrew that possibility the moment Kirby Freeman was announced the starter. Even with Kyle Wright under center, the Canes were probably in trouble this week, but with the less experienced Freeman, they’re just asking to lose. They dominated the line of scrimmage last week, with their two main backs combining for 200 rushing yards on 25 carries. This masked Freeman’s 9/21 for 86 yards. Oklahoma will expose it. I would not be surprised to see Wright finish this game, causing new coach Randy Shannon QB controversy headaches all season.

Predictions: Last week, I took a shot on two out of three underdogs, splitting those games, but this week I can’t see any. None of the three visitors have the passing offense to keep stronger, faster defenses honest and open up their running games. Texas is the most vulnerable favorite of the three, but they will be focused after their opening scare and ready to win.

Picks: LSU, Texas, Oklahoma

On the Michigan Game (NCAAF)

At least one major sports website has already branded Appalachian State’s victory at Michigan one of the greatest upsets in college football history, and I have no doubt that is true. The fact that they are a I-AA team, the fact that it happened in the Big House, the fact that they stopped Michigan on two key two-point conversions, they fact that they squeezed a game-winning two-minute drive in between two blocked field goals—no question this game was special. But I got to wondering, how unlikely was it?

As you probably know by now, Appalachian State isn’t just any I-AA team. They’re a little I-AA dynasty, back-to-back national champions. This was the kind of David and Goliath matchup that reminds you David was already God’s anointed by the time of his most famous duel. (If you believe Jim Harbaugh, the Michigan players are all philistines, too.)

Now, I don’t know how you feel about computer rankings, but they’re one tool for measuring how well different groups of teams match up against each other. Jeff Sagarin’s ratings put I-A and I-AA teams into the same pool. Last year, Appalachian State finished 53rd in those rankings, ahead of quality teams like Houston, Alabama and Purdue. The year before, they finished 69th.

One way is to consider a direct analogy. Marshall was the I-AA dynasty of the mid-90s, and then made the leap to D-IA. They proceeded to lose only four games in three years, collecting wins over South Carolina, Louisville and Clemson along the way. By ’99, they had an undefeated season and cracked the top ten. Under current rules, they would’ve made the BCS. Now, that last team featured Randy Moss and eventually Chad Pennington, but the initial Marshall squad couldn’t have been too much better than App State, and they won the MAC. It’s not totally unreasonable to believe the numbers above.

However, these rankings are probably inflated at least a bit. The nature of a knockout playoff system is that, obviously, somebody wins a bunch of games in a row against good opponents. Since there is some luck involved with this method, this team will be ranked a little higher than they probably deserve. In his preseason ratings this year, Sagarin had Appalachian State at number 80, which is still ahead of Michigan’s conference opponents Indiana and Illinois. Although, considering that Appalachian State won the title twice in a row, then beat Michigan, maybe Sagarin had it right the first time.

Either way, they are comparable to some I-A teams, probably better than other Top 25 opponents Mississippi State, East Carolina or Baylor and certainly much better than anybody in the Sun Belt. If they’re really as good as Alabama or Purdue was last year, it is not at all out of the question for them to beat a Wolverines team that is still putting together a new defense. If they’re only an Indiana, they could still be dangerous. In the last five years, Indiana has three wins against ranked opponents, including one road win in 2004. Michigan has a history too. They had a close call against San Diego State three years ago, only winning 24-21 against a team that was less talented, less experienced, less well-coached and more frightened than the one they faced yesterday.

It was a crazy game, no question, and certainly deserves to be mentioned as one of the greatest upsets ever. But I’m still not sure it was one of the unlikeliest.

Mike, On Predicting College Football

Football is back in a big way once again, and as has been a tradition, both here and on my radio program, when a sport starts, I make predictions and tell you who will do what. Most of the time, I’m fairly accurate, so as another season of college football begins on Thursday, it’s time to take a look into the crystal ball. We’ll go in reverse order picking the winner of every conference, and then outline who will be playing in the BCS games.

Conference USA
This conference is slowly becoming a one team conference in both of the moneymaking sports. Memphis is obviously the dominant basketball power, and Southern Miss is making a push to assume the same position in football. They are the defending champs, and it doesn’t look like they’re all that eager to give up that title. Houston lost Kolb to the draft, and no one else really came close to touching the Golden Eagles last year. Because of a weak conference slate, Southern Miss will travel to both Tennessee and Boise State in September this year, which should toughen them up for conference play, despite the fact that I think they’ll lose both.
Biggest Game: Oct 28, Central Florida @ Southern Miss
Champ Southern Miss

Mid-American
This conference was rated above only the Sun Belt (which I’m not previewing because it’s not really a conference) last season. So how did they respond? By adding Temple! The only reason Temple even won a game last year is because they scheduled Duke, who has now lost 20 consecutive games. The rest of the conference is average at best. Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Kent State, and Akron all have decent pieces in place, but I don’t see anyone in this conference that will be able to pull a big-time upset. If you push me to name a winner, I have to take Central Michigan because of their recent success and the return of Dan Lefevour, a personal favorite of my former radio show partner Chris Phelan, at quarterback. Also, make sure you tune in on September 8. If you thought Temple and Duke was fun, wait until you see Buffalo @ Temple. WaHoo!
Biggest Game: Sept 22, Kent State @ Akron
Champ: Central Michigan

Mountain West
Like Conference USA, this is starting to get a bit repetitive. Outside of Utah’s undefeated season under Alex Smith, BYU and TCU appear to be the only two teams capable of winning year in and year out. TCU has a great recruiting base and always seems to be able to run the ball well (think LaDanian Tomlinson). BYU lost John Beck, just as Houston lost Kolb, so the balance of power might shift back towards the Horned Frogs this year. Hopefully someone will come up and surprise this year to make the race interesting, but outside of Colorado State or Wyoming, I don’t see that happening. It’s a two horse race, and the game between the two will decide it all.
Biggest Game: Nov 8, TCU @ BYU
Champ: TCU

Western Athletic
If you’re looking for a non-BCS team to crash the party this year, once again the WAC has the best possible options. In fact, I think that this conference could potentially still have two undefeated teams after the third Saturday in November. Colt Brennan is simply phenomenal, and he has a great receiving corps back as well. Everyone hates making the trip to Hawaii, and their road games – La Tech, UNLV, Idaho, SJ St, and Nevada – don’t exactly scare anyone. Meanwhile, the blue SmurfTurf boys will be back at it once again, looking to continue the longest winning streak in Major College Football. Don’t think they can’t do it again – Ian Johnson is very good, and very few teams go to Boise and even keep it close, let alone win. Boise State does have a trip to Washington and a home date with Southern Miss in September, but two wins there sets up the winner-take-all showdown in Honolulu on November 23.
Biggest Game: Nov 23, Boise State @ Hawaii
Champ: Hawaii

Independents
Ok, so maybe that should read “Notre Dame,” but there’s still no better game in all of college football, for my money, than Army-Navy. That said, it appears Notre Dame will once again win the Commander-in-Chief trophy as the winner of the service academy series, which is good, because they might be the only games ND wins. They have a real possibility of starting 0-3, with a home game against Georgia Tech and road dates with Penn State and Michigan. And this year, you can’t even count on Michigan State falling apart now that John L. Smith is gone. Follow that with the alphabet soup of UCLA, BC, and USC, and I don’t see the golden domers in a bowl game this season. I guess it’s good that the last four games are Navy, Air Force, Duke, and Stanford. At least they might win four games this year.
Biggest Game: Dec 1, Navy vs. Army in Baltimore
Champ: Navy

Atlantic Coast
For the third consecutive year, this will be the worst BCS conference. I bet they’re glad they raided the Big East for their “good” football teams. Oops. The other intriguing storyline is that NC State and Boston College seem to be the front runners in the ACC Atlantic, and Tom O’Brien left the latter to coach the former in the offseason. While they will assume the spotlight, however, the old man down in Tallahassee will assemble the real champ, provided, of course, that Drew Weatherford can simply not make mistakes. I like Miami and Virginia Tech to rebound from tough seasons and compete for the Coastal championship, but in a fairly even conference with no clear favorite, seven or eight teams have a shot to win it. And maybe – just maybe – Duke might win a game… nah.
Biggest Game: Nov 17, Miami @ Virginia Tech
Champ: Florida State

Big 12
There really is no reason for two divisions in this conference. Just make it one big division and have the top two teams play. At least the championship game would be interesting. As it is, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech will beat each other up for the right to destroy Nebraska in the conference championship game. Every game between those four teams will be exciting and hotly-contested, and it’s quite possible that Nebraska will actually have a better conference record than whoever emerges from the South. Don’t let that fool you, however – the South team will be better and will win the Big 12 Championship. The only question is which of the four teams it will be. Somehow, Texas A&M always loses a game they should win, and Texas Tech simply doesn’t have enough talent to win all three of those games without any other stumbles, so it comes down to the Red River Shootout, and Oklahoma is due. That said, I’ll take Texas.
Biggest Game: Oct 6, Oklahoma vs. Texas in Dallas
Champ: Texas

Big East
What was a three horse league last year will once again be a three horse league this year. The same three schools – Rutgers, West Virginia, and Louisville – all beat each other last year, and this year will all look to redeem themselves by repaying those losses at home. The only three games that matter this season are Rutgers @ Louisville, West Virginia @ Rutgers, and Louisville @ West Virginia. It’s the last one that will really matter, because I think Rutgers, while they will still be good, will lose both of their two marquee games. With Steve Slaton and Pat White returning and the game in Morgantown, Steve Kragthorpe will be unable to return Louisville to the top of the Big East. The Cardinals could still easily pull off an 11-1 record, which might just be good enough for the BCS even without the automatic bid.
Biggest Game: Nov 8, Louisville @ West Virginia
Champ: West Virginia

Southeastern
The debate continues to rage – is the SEC better than the Big Ten? The answer is no. Neither conference is better than the other. Despite the BCS Championship Game last year, the top of the Big Ten is better than the top of the SEC. What the SEC does have, however, is depth. There are ten teams that have a shot at a bowl game this year, which is everyone in the conference that doesn’t play in the state of Mississippi. Alabama will be better, as will South Carolina, Georgia, and Vanderbilt. Kentucky has possibly the best player in the conference in Andre Woodson, and Florida is the defending national champion. Auburn and LSU have stellar defense each and every year, which is crucial in college football, and some even seem to the think that with JaMarcus Russell gone, LSU’s offense will be better, a sentiment I echo. All of these teams will fall just short, however, of the Volunteers in Rocky Top. Tennessee has two very difficult road games early on – California and Florida – but the rest of the schedule is extremely favorable, with Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas all at home and the terrible Tigers – both LSU and Auburn – off the schedule entirely. Even with one early loss, the conference is balanced enough for Tennessee to win the East and the conference championship.
Biggest Game: Sept 15, Tennessee @ Florida; Oct 20, Auburn @ LSU
Champ: Tennessee

Pacific 10
I could probably rename this conference the Pac-9 plus 1, because that’s pretty much what it is. Sure, USC has a pretty brutal schedule, with road games against Notre Dame and Nebraska to go along with their nine conference games, but the Trojans should win both of those games. This program is simply too deep and too good. The biggest trap for them is the road game against Arizona State and Dennis Erickson sandwiched between the trip to California and the rivalry (read: revenge) game against UCLA at the end of the season. Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, and Washington should all have decent teams and compete for bowl bids, but the race this year is for third behind USC and California. I don’t see another BCS team out of here unless USC is upset somewhere along the line, so the Rose Bowl will have to find another team.
Biggest Game: Nov 10, USC @ California
Champ: USC

Big Ten
Saving the best for last, the Big Ten should be a four team race this season, with Michigan as the odds-on favorite. Wisconsin has P.J. Hill back, but with the graduation of quarterback John Stocco, the leadership void might be too big to fill in one season. Penn State has an excellent defense, as always, with Justin King and Anthony Scirrotto leading the way, but questions still abound about Anthony Morrelli at QB and who will replace Tony Hunt. Ohio State is in a similar position, except with even more offensive pieces to replace. Meanwhile, Michigan has every major offensive weapon back, as QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, and OT Jake Long all opted to return for their senior years. This is a program that has gone 0-6 combined between Ohio State and bowl games, including a 32-18 drubbing against USC last year. With a favorable schedule – Notre Dame, PSU, and OSU all at home and only 4 road games – expect Michigan to be atop the conference when November ends. Speaking of schedules, the trip to Ann Arbor is the only real test for Penn State, as they get Wisconsin, ND, and OSU at home as well, so two bids to the BCS is highly likely for the Big Ten.
Biggest Game: Sept 22, Penn State @ Michigan
Champ: Michigan

BCS BOWLS
Rose: Oklahoma vs. Penn State
Sugar: Tennessee vs. Louisville
Orange: Florida State vs. West Virginia
Fiesta: Texas vs. LSU
Champ: USC vs. Michigan

Remember that 0-6 record for Michigan against Ohio State and in bowls? Well they’ll beat Ohio State, but you can make it 1-7 – USC is simply too good. Michigan will keep it closer than last year, but I see a 35-31 title win for the Trojans, the new college football dynasty.

On National Champions (NCAAF)

If you are a college football fan, and you want to know if your team has a chance at the national title, there are only two things you need to look for. First, you need a veteran, talented defense. Second, you need a returning quarterback to lead your offense. If a running back is hands-down the most important offensive player, that is not a good sign. First, let’s look at how the last six champions fit the profile.

2006 Florida returned six defensive starters off a team that allowed 18.8 points per game, and Chris Leak, who had been starting since his freshman season.

2005 Texas was a perfect fit. They had nine starters returning on a defense that had allowed 17.9 points per game, and they also had Vince Young. They squeezed past Ohio State in the Horseshoe, USC in the Rose Bowl, and crushed everybody in between.

2004 USC returned six starters from a defense that had allowed 18.4 points per game, and Matt Leinart.

2003 LSU returned six defensive starters and Matt Mauck. They navigated the always-brutal SEC with a single loss, and pulled out three close games against Top 15 teams.

2002 Ohio State returned seven defensive starters, who were great, but Clarett was definitely their offensive star. They are a little bit of an exception. However, it is worth pointing out that it was Krenzel who stepped up and saved several late-season games that needed saving.

2001 Miami, led by Ken Dorsey and eight returning defensive starters, pretty much crushed everything in their path. They scored 43 points a game and allowed just ten. Also, if you don’t buy the interference call the next year, they fit again and perfect the system.

The list keeps going with Oklahoma and Huepel, FSU and Weinke, but I think we’re far enough. The theory is pretty sound. Winning the national championship, in football, is about winning the three or four games against teams almost as good as you are. Running teams tend to push around weak teams, and don’t always have a good Plan B when they come across a bigger, faster defensive front that can stack against the run and make them pass. On the other side of the ball, veteran defenses are less likely to fold when the talent and coaching level they play against jumps.

I think a good rule of thumb is that for a qualifying defense, a team must have at least six of eleven starters returning, and have given up less than 20 points per game. The “star quarterback” is a little more subjective. I also expect a team’s talent to have shown in the previous season: I have defined this broadly to mean they were ranked at any point. Now, who fits?

The SEC is lacking a good candidate. LSU and Arkansas have the defenses, but not the QBs, and Tennessee has a quarterback but lost over half the D. Florida lost both—although with just three defensive senior starters and a learning year for Tebow, they’ll be geared back up for 2008. With a blue chip true sophomore quarterback and a young defense, Georgia looks likewise a year away. Auburn almost fits, but Brandon Cox doesn’t really count as a star QB. Also, cruelly, the Tigers have all four of their toughest conference opponents (Florida, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia) on the road. The best fit may actually be South Carolina, with Blake Mitchell and ten defensive starters returning from an outfit that allowed just 18.7 points per game. But since they spent all of last season unranked, I can’t see they have the talent level to emerge. Basically, the SEC goes eight deep without much real separation.

The Big Ten is also short on good fits. Ohio State loses Smith, and Michigan loses the defense. Wisconsin is more tied to RB PJ Hill than ever, since QB Stocco graduated. The Badgers are a perfect example of where running back teams can struggle. Their rush yards during a six-game stretch last season went 287, 12, 209, 307, 208, 241. Which of these games is not like the others? The Michigan game, of course, which ended up being the only one in between Wisconsin and a perfect season. But once the Wolverines had clamped down on the run, Wisconsin didn’t have any answers.

The one Big Ten team who does fit the profile is Penn State. There are signs that Anthony Morelli is going to live up to his considerable potential, and the defense should be very strong for the fourth straight year. With Notre Dame and Michigan in September, we will at least find out quickly.

The Big 12 also has a lone star team. Oklahoma doesn’t have an established quarterback, A&M is intriguing but doesn’t quite fit, and of course the entire North division is a mess, just as it has always been since the decline and fall of the Nebraskan Empire. All of which leaves us with Colt McCoy and the Texas Longhorns. While Colt is healthy, they are exceedingly dangerous, and while their biggest weakness is the secondary, both Oklahoma and Texas A&M are running teams. Barring a sophomore slump for McCoy, Texas has a great shot at running the Big 12.

The ACC has some potential. Miami, Florida State, and Boston College fit the ideal. Kyle Wright and Miami have been huge disappointments for a couple years running now, but this year’s team is reminiscent of Carson Palmer’s 2002 USC Trojans that turned that program back around. FSU is in a similar situation, with Drew Weatherford and Co needing to put together a solid, consistent season. Both squads need to do better with turnovers and close games, and both should. Boston College is the most often overlooked. They have put together three straight three-loss seasons, and this year they bring back all but two starters off a defense that held opponents to under 16 ppg last year. Add in seven offensive starters, including the leading passer, rusher and receiver as well as three senior linemen, BC should do very well. But then, why did Tom O’Brien leave?

Also, Virginia Tech is probably the best team in the conference; they return eight starters on each side of the ball, and their defense will be terrifying. However, with Branden Ore leading the offense from RB, and with iffy Sean Glennon behind center, I don’t think they are a national title contender. Add in solid squads like Clemson, Maryland and Georgia Tech, and the ACC will, like the SEC be a deep, entertaining conference this season.

The Pac-10 basically comes down to USC and that’s it. Shocking. With John David Booty and ten defensive starters, they have to be the national favorite. As a side note, Oregon is close to the ideal, except RB Jonathan Stewart is their star. Either way, with USC around, they’re only a side note.

The Big East is poised to follow up its strong run of last season. Brian Brohm and Louisville are the worthiest contender; West Virginia and Rutgers are all about running. It is very possible, since WVU gets Louisville at home, that the Mountaineers could run the regular season. However, I think they would be in a lot of trouble against their BCS title game opponent.

Outside the BCS, there are as usual no real title candidates.

In rough order, I would put the chances of the teams like this:

Favorite: USC

Contender: Texas
Louisville

Dark Horse: Miami, FL
Boston College
Penn State
Florida State

And, just for fun, I’ll throw in some conference predictions:

SEC: Florida over LSU

Big Ten: Michigan

Big 12: Texas over Nebraska

ACC: VT over BC

P10: USC

Big East: WV

BCS games:

Title: USC over WV

Rose: Michigan over LSU

Orange: Louisville over VT

Fiesta: Texas over Hawaii

Sugar: Florida over Penn St.