Mike, On the South Divisions (NFL)

Two divisions down, six more to go in this five-part NFL preview. We’ve got another two divisions to preview today, and for that, we’re heading south.

AFC South
This division is home to the defending Super Bowl champions, who will try to become the third team from the AFC to repeat as champions in the past ten years. A revamped defense will make this difficult, but as we saw last year, Indianapolis has enough talent offensively to make the playoffs on that alone, and then they’ll just have to hope that playing together for four months has helped the defense to gel enough to win in January. A team as loaded offensively as the Colts will win a ton of games, but that defense will need a repeat performance if they expect to hoist the Lombardi Trophy again.

As has been the case for the past three years, the biggest challenger to Indy will be Jacksonville. Despite Jack Del Rio’s somewhat surprising decision to trade or release Byron Leftwich with a week to go before the season starts, this is a team with a defense, which, like Indy’s offense, can win games regardless of how well the team plays on the other side of the ball. David Garrard will have to make plays, however, and with Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor in his backfield, he’ll have plenty of help. The biggest key for this team is not to lose games against teams they should beat.

Deep in the heart of Texas, Houston is quietly putting together a decent team. Gary Kubiak knows how to coach, and his team will always be well-prepared and willing to run through a wall for the coach and the team. The problem is that hard work will only do so much in covering up a lack of talent, which Houston clearly has. Matt Schaub isn’t exactly a franchise quarterback, and he’ll still have the same problem David Carr did – no O-line. The defense will be decent again, but this division is too top heavy to think playoff just yet.

And finally, a team that is possibly the biggest enigma in the entire NFL. The Tennessee Titans lost a lot of talent this offseason from a team that wasn’t exactly stacked last year. Add to that the off-field drama of Pacman Jones, and everyone would understand if this team went 4-12. This is the same team, however, that is coached by Jeff Fisher and lead at QB by the most explosive player not named LaDanian Tomlinson in Vince Young. Fisher and Young are two guys that, simply put, know how to win. I highly doubt the Titans will contend for a playoff berth, but I wouldn’t count them out in any of their 16 games, and I guarantee that they will beat someone down the stretch and cripple that team’s playoff hopes because of it.

Pick: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston

NFC South
One cannot talk about the NFC South without first bringing up Michael Vick. And now that we’ve accomplished that, we’ll move on. The Falcons might actually be better off without Vick, because starting Joey Harrington will allow Bobby Petrino to run his offense his way, without trying to tailor it to the needs and talents of Vick. Brian Brohm is good, but his stats at Louisville are no better than Harrington’s were at Oregon, so there’s every reason to think Harrington will succeed under Petrino. The real question is whether Petrino will succeed in the NFL. The names Pete Carroll, Steve Spurrier, and Nick Saban should make Petrino just a little nervous, especially considering the Falcons didn’t have a playoff-caliber team before the Vick incident.

One of the biggest darkhorse teams this season could very well be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jon Gruden knows his job is on the line, and in what is still an inferior conference with no “great” teams, his crew could make a run for that final playoff berth on the back of their defense. Gruden was smart bringing in Jeff Garcia, fresh off his renaissance in Philly, to be his QB, because he may be the best in the league at running the West Coast Offense. The running game will be shaky, though, and Gruden’s tendency to overreact and implode might cost the Bucs at times. Still, a fourth place schedule in a favorable division could find this team still playing in January.

If the Titans are the biggest enigma, then the Carolina Panthers run a close second. This was a team that won two difficult road games (@NY Giants, @ Chicago) in 2005 before falling short in Seattle, and then proceeded to fall flat on their collective faces in 2006. This team certainly has the talent, especially on defense, to regain their ’05 status as a force in the NFC, but the inconsistency of Jake Delhomme and the piling up of injuries could leave them right where the finished last year. If they play like ’06, John Fox could be unemployed come New Year’s. That said, I could also see them playing in the Super Bowl this year. Go figure.

The honeymoon is over, the national media attention has waned slightly, and suddenly the New Orleans Saints have a division title to defend. It’s a very interesting position for the Saints, who suddenly find themselves loaded with expectations. The offense will score points, but don’t underestimate the loss of emotional leader Joe Horn from the receiving corps. The defense struggled at times last year, and it’s still not exceptional by any means, but it will most likely do enough to win the Saints another division title. The problem could come in the playoffs, where once again, NO will be expected to be better than last season. That could be a difficult proposition for the NFC runner-up, but it’s on the table either way.

Pick: New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta