To this point in the season, most of the focus has been on which conferences are stronger than others. Now, five weeks in, teams have most of their byes and non-conference games out of the way, and we start really sorting teams within their conferences. An early loss still leaves you the chance to win your conference and get back up the rankings, but we're starting to get to the point where teams can knock themselves out of the BCS for good.
In my mind, there are nine really meaningful games this Saturday, and none of them are in the ACC or Big East. (The Big East's game was Pitt over South Florida Thursday night, which pretty much confirmed the four at-larges are indeed coming from the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten and non-BCS highest ranked). Also, none of them are real headliners.
The six undercards come in three natural pairs. The first pair, Arizona State-Cal and Illinois-Michigan, are between talented and underachieving teams that can climb back into contention with a win. These teams, all with high hopes, are a combined 9-7 right now, but only one of those seven losses came in conference. And no one at the high end of these two conferences has looked invincible. The second pair, Penn State-Purdue and Texas Tech-Kansas State, put relatively untested teams with perfect records in their first real test on the road, against a team they should beat but is dangerous. The third pair, Auburn-Vanderbilt and Kentucky-Alabama, are games that would easily go in the top three if we were willing to believe Vandy and Kentucky, both undefeated, actually had a chance to finish ahead of Florida or Georgia. Also, since Auburn has a direct loss to LSU and visits Alabama in the season finale, every game for them is now do-or-die.
#23 Oregon at #9 USC. Thanks to Boise State and Oregon State, this probably isn't the best game of the week, but it's still the most important, for one simple reason: who can keep the winner out of the Rose Bowl? A second conference loss would (probably) finish USC, but since the Trojans would probably still beat everyone else, Oregon would have that much more of a cushion. On the other hand, if USC can win convincingly, it's the first step back into the national title game—Arizona State, California and Notre Dame are all at home as well, and the SEC and Big 12 have a ridiculous number of games between their top teams.
#14 Ohio State at #18 Wisconsin. Wisconsin had a masterpiece of failure last week, giving up 27 straight second half points to Michigan to lose in spite of forcing five turnovers and outgaining the Wolverines by almost 50%. They should be ready to make amends. Ohio State, though, thanks to promoting Pryor and getting Beanie Wells back, have a whole new offensive backfield than the one that got nowhere against USC. With a win, both teams would be able to set their sights on a home date with Penn State for the conference.
#4 Missouri at Nebraska. An upgraded version of the Texas Tech and Penn State games, this road trip is Missouri's biggest hurdle to winning the Big 12 North. Kansas is better than Nebraska, true, but the Jayhawks struggle running the ball and also have to play Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. It's almost impossible to believe they can overcome that schedule. Nebraska may have trouble keeping up, but how much do we really know about the Tigers? Their only dangerous opponent so far, Illinois, put up over 500 yards. Bo Pelini, the Huskers' coach, came from the DC spot at LSU, and Nebraska hasn't lost to Mizzou in Lincoln in over 30 years.
Predictions: This could be a letdown for USC, except they just had one. They've got to be prepared; no way does USC get swept by the state of Oregon. Ohio State has to be worried that they're bringing a true freshman QB into Camp Randall Stadium, but fortunately Wisconsin hasn't shown a consistently two-dimensional offense either. Ohio State loves traditional football, and with a power RB and shaky dropback QB, Wisconsin fits the bill. Despite their shaky D, Missouri has Chase Daniel. Until Nebraska plays consistent defense against a good opponent, I'm going to remember that last year, Daniel and Kansas' Todd Reesing put up 71% completions, 765 passing yards and 117 points against the Cornhuskers last year.
Picks: USC (83/17), Ohio State (52/48), Missouri (76/24)
LW: 27-70
Overall Adj. WPct: 219-356, .381
A Note on How Bad My Picks Have Been, For John Six: One thing I have been doing that hurts me is picking the games before looking up the actual odds. The idea is that I didn't want to bias myself, but I also create an artifical correlation between favorites winning and how I look. Since picking all underdogs has been a winning strategy so far this year, it has pushed my winning percentage down. The way I've been picking, I don't think I should be making things harder on myself. From now on, I'm looking at the percentages before I pick. This week, I'm sticking with the favorites anyway, although the 83/17 made me at least look twice at Oregon.
Still, I don't want to give the impression that's my only problem. Looking back over it, there's only twice I would have switched to the underdog based on percentages: I thought Georgia would beat Alabama, but I would have taken Alabama at 70/30, and, as you can tell from what I wrote at the time, I thought the Ohio State-USC game was a lot closer than 80/20. If I'd picked the Tide and the Buckeyes, I would trade in a -70 and +20 for the reverse, which would leave me at 269-306. And .468, while not as bad, is still bad. I'll try to do better.
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