Thursday, October 9, 2008

On the Red River Shootout, and Everything Else

This week has a bunch of matchups that looked better on paper in the preseason than they do now, and one gem that has turned out to be even bigger.

It would have been reasonable to believe Arizona State-USC, Tennessee-Georgia, Purdue-Ohio State, UCLA-Oregon, Nebraska-Texas Tech or even the so far boring Clemson-Wake Forest game going on right now to feature two good teams instead of one. But they don't. On the other side, a recovering Notre Dame and suddenly decent North Carolina play probably the biggest game all season between two teams that combined for seven wins last year. Another of the lesser games that has grown even more in stature is the Saturday night game between Oklahoma State and Missouri. Overshadowed by the four Big 12 undefeateds in the top 8, the 5-0 Cowboys have posted 56, 57, 55 and 56 points in their last four games. Like the SEC matchups last week, this game could be one of the top three in quality. It just doesn't make the cut because as good as they are, does Okie State really have a shot at the Big 12 South? Along with Texas Tech, they'd have to get past:

#1 Oklahoma vs. #5 Texas. What's to say? This is the kind of matchup that make sports fun. A neutral site game between traditional rivals, both of whom are in the Top 5, outscore opponents by 36 points a game and have Heisman candidate quarterbacks with absurd numbers. Both teams even have the same potential weakness: rush offense. The Longhorns' leading rusher by far is QB Colt McCoy, which is fine for UTEP but not so much Oklahoma, and the Sooners were themselves held under two yards a carry in their one tough matchup against TCU.

#4 LSU at #11 Florida. The Red River Shootout must be big to overshadow this game, you know, the one where the national champs visit the Heisman winner? Both teams are ridiculously good, but neither has been quite as overwhelming as they'd like. Florida gave away the Mississippi game with three turnovers, 1-11 third down conversions, an 86 yard TD allowed in the fourth quarter, a big fourth down decision gone wrong and a blocked extra point. LSU survived Auburn on the road and struggled to put away Mississippi State last week. Both of those conference games saw the Tigers allow over twenty points. It won't be easier in the Swamp.

#6 Penn State at Wisconsin. This game gets the nod in this spot because it feels more urgent. Oklahoma State has three big chances at redemption if they lose this week, but with two straight conference losses in winnable games already, this could pretty much be Wisconsin's season. And while a Missouri loss would still leave them in the Big 12 North driver's seat, a loss here and Penn State would be facing a must-must-win situation two weeks from now in the Horseshoe. To win, the one-dimensional Badgers have to be able to run. Penn State has only faced one team so far with a shot at establishing a run game, and Illinois did. But they still shut down the Illini after the first quarter, and haven't had any problems except then. PSU has also been explosive on offense and special teams.

Predictions: Oklahoma-Texas should be a great game, but I like the Longhorns. That TCU game raised a couple of red flags. Oklahoma had 56 yards rushing, took 4 sacks and was only 19/34. They coasted through anyway with big gains and turnovers, but with Texas' athletes and ball protection, they can't count on that this time. And besides, like I was ever going to pick against Colt. Despite their records, Florida is better than LSU. They had more than their share of mistakes and bad luck in their loss, while LSU has been struggling for the simpler reason that something like seven of last year's starters are in the NFL now. Wisconsin seems like a natural choice here: they're always good at home (in fact Penn State has scored three points in each of their last two visits), they're by far the best defense Penn State has seen this year, and a desperate team is a dangerous team. Of course, the other relevant piece of history is that both teams are very similar to the ones that played Penn State's 38-7 win last year.

Picks: Texas (32/68), Florida (68/32), Penn State (67/33)

LW: 89-0

Overall Adj. WPct: 308-356, .464

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good job last week, really made a big turn-around, even if it was at the expense of my beloved Badgers. I also enjoy the coverage of the Big Ten, particularly Wisconsin, and this is their make or break week. I think this is much like last week's game against Ohio State, in that the Badgers need to run the ball effectively and often to have a chance. I have a lot more respect for Ohio State rather than Penn State, despite what the rankings may say, and I would go with the desperate home team in this instance over a relatively unchallenged Penn State squad (though that v. Illinois game was still impressive). While this seems like bias, I also picked Ohio State last week to win, though by a much larger margin than they did.
I also understand your sentiment for Texas, as no one has ever fit the QB in Texas than a man with the name of Colt. However, Oklahoma has looked absolutely invincible, particularly against Cincinnati, shredding one of the NCAA's top defenses all game long.
I agree with your assessment of the LSU Florida game though. I think LSU squeezed by an overrated Auburn squad, but always seem to find a way to win, despite never looking impressive in doing so. Florida however has such raw talent and potential that if they don't win this week, it will pretty much bury their season with 2 SEC losses. Again, desperate teams with good talent, particularly in the college level, always gets the nod in my book. It will be interesting to see how the games will play out, as I will be at the UW game to see my Badgers pull the upset.

Anonymous said...

Seems that I forgot that Wisconsin starts someone named Alan Evridge at quarterback, going a stellar 2-10 for 50 yards before being benched. Oh well, good week again as my attempt at challenging your calls pretty much failed miserably.