Here we go again. It seems like we've always got a Big 12 undefeated in a big game, either Ohio State or Penn State, and another pair of ranked Big 12 teams (this week, #8 Texas Tech-#23 Kansas) shunted off to the side. Got to love a season where a big SEC game barely makes the list, though.
Oh, before I start, a quick word about rankings. Originally, I was using the AP rankings because they're the ones quoted on ESPN. Then recently, I switched to the Coaches' Poll because it's in the BCS and the AP isn't. Starting this week, I will quote the BCS Top 25.
#6 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas. The Longhorns are up to their third of four consecutive games against top 12 teams (if Texas Tech wins this week), and they've looked awfully good twice so far. Against Oklahoma and Missouri, Texas has put up over 1000 yards, converted 64% of third downs, and committed no turnovers. Also, Colt completed 85% of his passes. Oklahoma State features a terrific offense themselves. Their best player is probably WR Dez Bryant, who has caught 45 of Oklahoma State's 97 completed passes and 11 of 14 passing touchdowns, but more importantly they average 283 yards rushing. That will be interesting, since Texas has held every opponent except UTEP under 50 yards rushing. Not that most of them have tried.
Not that it has anything to do with this game per se, but there's one more thing I just found out about. Suppose all the national title contenders except Texas take a loss between now and the end of the season, bringing Oklahoma back up to #2. Then suppose Texas loses a heartbreaker to multi-loss Missouri (or Kansas) in the Big 12 title game. They might not drop that far in the polls, and certainly with their brutal Big 12 South plus Kansas and Missouri plus the better one again schedule, the computers will still love them. If the final BCS puts Oklahoma 1st and Texas 2nd, that's the first priority. The Big 12 Champion would be barred from the BCS entirely. This won't happen, but it could.
#3 Penn State at #9 Ohio State. Both teams look pretty darn impressive now. Penn State has been good in every dimension. With only 2 INTs and 5 sacks, QB Daryll Clark has been taking care of the ball, and the balanced offense and D have done the rest. The run D has had some trouble against the mobility of Illinois and Michigan, which is a good sign for Ohio State: they have to be able to run. Pryor has still never had to throw 20 passes in a game.
#7 Georgia at #13 LSU. Both teams look to recover into the conference and national title races in the first of a pair of major games. Next week Georgia plays Florida, while the week after LSU hosts Alabama. These are balanced but not overwhelming squads, getting through the SEC efficiently but unspectacularly, except for tripping up against the other's big remaining hurdle.
It's also worth pointing out that while this is a national championship elimination game for both, Georgia but not LSU would still retain control of their own conference destiny with a loss. LSU would drop two games behind Alabama, whereas Georgia would only be one down to Florida, with a chance to win the head-to-head and get the tiebreaker.
Predictions: Texas has too much more talent than Oklahoma State to lose at home. Also, the Cowboys' defense hasn't shown a lot of evidence they're up to slowing Colt & Co. down. Penn State-Ohio State should be a great game, but I like PSU due to their demonstrated ability to make adjustments quickly. OSU is more limited in that regard simply due to personnel (i.e. Pryor). I also think Georgia will beat LSU, simply because LSU isn't that good. The Tigers haven't had a really convincing performance yet. Here's their resume: they've crushed a I-AA team and North Texas, both of which Sun Belt teams regularly do, beat 2-5 Mississippi State by 10, a team Georgia Tech and Tennessee both beat by 30, eked past Auburn and South Carolina, who are each 2-3 in SEC play, and got crushed by Florida. What's top 13 about that?
Picks: Texas (77/23), Penn State (54/46), Georgia (48/52)
LW: 119-0
Overall Adj. WPct: 560-356, .611
1 comment:
Seems to be you are on fire, and I am really hoping I can jynx that by bringing it up. I agreed with all your picks last week, though was a bit surprised that BYU was as completely dismantled as they were. I thought they would at least make a close game of it, but apparently they were that much overrated, and the close loss to Oklahoma by TCU made them that underrated.
This week, we have some great action going. Again, I think Texas at home is pretty much unstoppable, and the Oklahoma St. defense would need to rent out the Tennessee Titans defense to stand a chance in this game. But then again, Texas might be overlooking them this week in hopes of being prepared for a showdown with Texas Tech this week, but it would still take a collossal collapse to not pull out a win at home this week.
Similarly, LSU is tremendously overrated as you pointed out. The blowout by Florida was only a show for things to come, and Georgia originally a National Championship contender should put them in their place.
The big game this week, however, if the PSU-OSU battle at the horseshoe. I do think that PSU has been absolutely dominant in their wins this season, and show no signs of slowing down. However, OSU has been getting better each week, with Pryor looking more comfortable in that offense with each game that passes by. I think this game is a lot closer you might think of it, because Penn State rush defense in my opinion is highly suspect, and the one thing OSU does exceptionally well is run the ball. If Pryor can mix up some scrambling plays with a good play action pass once in a while, look for OSU to pull the upset at home. Either way, this game looks to be a great one, and we shall see who comes out victorious.
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