Since I'm writing this one Saturday, we already know what one of this week's biggest three games was. USC losing.
This makes the race pretty clear cut. If you win out in one of the two good leagues, you're definitely in. Next up would be an undefeated Big Ten champion, then (assuming no 12-0 from USF or Wake Forest) one-loss USC, then a one-loss SEC or Big 12 team. Then whoever.
So, the big games this week are SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten undefeated favorites playing ranked opponents.
#8 Alabama at #3 Georgia. Both of these teams have shown some vulnerabilities on offense. Georgia struggled to score at South Carolina, and Alabama didn't score an offensive TD against Tulane. However, both have played amazing defense, especially against the run. This is particularly troubling for Alabama, since QB John Parker Wilson hasn't proved he's able to beat someone on his own. But this would be a great place to start.
#22 Illinois at #12 Penn State. Illinois is one of those weird teams that hangs with Missouri then can barely put away Louisiana-Lafayette. Who knows what they're going to do week by week. Penn State is one of those teams that looks great but still hasn't played anybody yet. Well, I guess we have to count Oregon State as somebody now.
#24 TCU at #2 Oklahoma. Oklahoma better watch out. Like USC, they have often looked unstoppable right up to the point they lose a game they really shouldn't. For now, Sam Bradford doesn't look like he's going to let that happen. But TCU and their whole conference are red-hot. If the Horned Frogs win this, forget about whether the Mountain West champ can crash the BCS; it's whether their runner-up can grab an at-large.
Predictions: Oklahoma has the athletes to handle TCU's run game, and the Sooners have been playing against decent talent, so they're ready for a good D. Illinois hasn't shown they can put a full game together, so Penn State has to be favored. The SEC showdown is the most interesting. Wilson is capable of pulling it out, but it would have to be perfect. You can't count on perfect.
Picks: Georgia(70/30), Oklahoma(88/12), Penn State(85/15)
Overall Adj. WPct: 192-286