Thursday, October 16, 2008

On Missouri, Michigan State and the Mountain West

Halfway through the season, we have ten teams left with a zero in the loss column. These break down nicely into three groups: five BCS busters (BYU, Utah, Boise State, Tulsa, Ball State), a pair of Cadillac programs (Alabama, Penn State), and half the Big 12 South (Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State). The fact that there's only five teams in the latter two groups has to give hope to the former, at least as far as finishing top 12 is concerned. Whether they can think bigger we'll get to in a little bit.

Meanwhile, this week's meaningful but "other" games, as usual, come in two types. There are battles of okay teams in the barely okay ACC, Wake-Maryland and VT-BC, and of better teams in much better conferences, Vanderbilt-Georgia and Kansas-Oklahoma.

#12 Missouri at #1 Texas. This is this week's game with the biggest national title implications by far. Texas is playing the second of an absurdly difficult four week stretch that ends with Oklahoma State and at Texas Tech. Even if they go 2-1 in these next three, three extra wins to close the season and a win in the Big 12 title game could still land them in the national championship game, as long as the loss doesn't keep them from winning the division. If they win all three, Colt will win the Heisman, and people will start anointing them as among the best ever. (Just so we're clear, this would be ridiculously premature. I'm just saying, people would). Missouri doesn't play Oklahoma or Texas Tech, so after the meltdown against Oklahoma State, this is their last regular season chance to prove themselves to voters. Knock off Texas, and Chase Daniel and the Tigers are back in the national picture. A second straight loss, and their hold on the Big 12 North gets shaky.

This is a tough matchup for Texas. The Longhorns are really good at stopping the run, which doesn't help all that much against Mizzou. Bradford and Oklahoma had 387 yards and 5 TDs last week, and Daniel, with targets Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman, is almost equally dangerous. However, if Illinois and Oklahoma State are any indication, Missouri isn't much for getting stops themselves.

#11 Ohio State at #17 Michigan State. Besides PSU, these are the only two teams without a Big Ten loss. Since the USC disaster, Ohio State has gotten back on track, if not usually very prettily. QB Terrelle Pryor may be a future star, but for now the Buckeyes can't count on their passing game at all. Michigan State has been getting along similarly, recovering from an early Pac 10 loss (Cal) with a win streak keyed by defense and a star RB, with Javon Ringer playing the Beanie Wells role. Or maybe it's Wells playing the Ringer role, since the Michigan State senior already has over 1100 yards. Unbelievably, he's averaging over 35 carries a game. He's already over last season's total carries.

#8 BYU at #24 TCU. Brigham Young actually has an outside shot at reaching the national title game this year. Like Utah four years ago, they've reached the top 10 by midseason, but unlike those Utes, BYU has two conference games against ranked teams to prove themselves. Utah went 13-0 and got Alex Smith picked #1 without playing a team that got within two touchdowns of them, but none of their opponents really should've. With this game and the season finale against Utah, BYU has two worthy opponents to push them past one-loss BCS teams.

Of course, they have to win first. And what do we really know about BYU? They were an overzealous official's call away from overtime with 0-5 Washington. They made their reputation by dominating shutouts against UCLA and Wyoming in consecutive weeks, but in retrospect, so what? I know their strength is in the passing attack, but with the big leads they've gotten, you'd expect they might have outrushed Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Utah State or New Mexico. Nope. Still, they are outscoring opponents 37-10.

We know quite a bit about TCU. They're good, but not that good, as demonstrated by six easy wins over bad to mediocre teams and one big loss to Oklahoma. Offensively, they're about as run-heavy as BYU is the opposite. Still, they're outscoring opponents 34-11.

Predictions: Missouri-Texas is going to have a lot of points. Both this year and last, Missouri hasn't shown the defensive ability to stop good teams, which means Chase is going to have to be back to perfect. In Austin, that's a lot to ask. Ringer is going to have to run out of steam at some point, and Ohio State has the defense to make it soon. And tonight, I think BYU is going to be exposed. I'm not alone. The Horned Frogs are favored.

Picks: Texas (66/34), Ohio State (61/39), TCU (54/46)

LW: 133-0

Overall Adj. WPct: 441-356, .553

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