At least one major sports website has already branded Appalachian State’s victory at Michigan one of the greatest upsets in college football history, and I have no doubt that is true. The fact that they are a I-AA team, the fact that it happened in the Big House, the fact that they stopped Michigan on two key two-point conversions, they fact that they squeezed a game-winning two-minute drive in between two blocked field goals—no question this game was special. But I got to wondering, how unlikely was it?
As you probably know by now, Appalachian State isn’t just any I-AA team. They’re a little I-AA dynasty, back-to-back national champions. This was the kind of David and Goliath matchup that reminds you David was already God’s anointed by the time of his most famous duel. (If you believe Jim Harbaugh, the Michigan players are all philistines, too.)
Now, I don’t know how you feel about computer rankings, but they’re one tool for measuring how well different groups of teams match up against each other. Jeff Sagarin’s ratings put I-A and I-AA teams into the same pool. Last year, Appalachian State finished 53rd in those rankings, ahead of quality teams like Houston, Alabama and Purdue. The year before, they finished 69th.
One way is to consider a direct analogy. Marshall was the I-AA dynasty of the mid-90s, and then made the leap to D-IA. They proceeded to lose only four games in three years, collecting wins over South Carolina, Louisville and Clemson along the way. By ’99, they had an undefeated season and cracked the top ten. Under current rules, they would’ve made the BCS. Now, that last team featured Randy Moss and eventually Chad Pennington, but the initial Marshall squad couldn’t have been too much better than App State, and they won the MAC. It’s not totally unreasonable to believe the numbers above.
However, these rankings are probably inflated at least a bit. The nature of a knockout playoff system is that, obviously, somebody wins a bunch of games in a row against good opponents. Since there is some luck involved with this method, this team will be ranked a little higher than they probably deserve. In his preseason ratings this year, Sagarin had Appalachian State at number 80, which is still ahead of Michigan’s conference opponents Indiana and Illinois. Although, considering that Appalachian State won the title twice in a row, then beat Michigan, maybe Sagarin had it right the first time.
Either way, they are comparable to some I-A teams, probably better than other Top 25 opponents Mississippi State, East Carolina or Baylor and certainly much better than anybody in the Sun Belt. If they’re really as good as Alabama or Purdue was last year, it is not at all out of the question for them to beat a Wolverines team that is still putting together a new defense. If they’re only an Indiana, they could still be dangerous. In the last five years, Indiana has three wins against ranked opponents, including one road win in 2004. Michigan has a history too. They had a close call against San Diego State three years ago, only winning 24-21 against a team that was less talented, less experienced, less well-coached and more frightened than the one they faced yesterday.
It was a crazy game, no question, and certainly deserves to be mentioned as one of the greatest upsets ever. But I’m still not sure it was one of the unlikeliest.
Sunday, September 2, 2007
Saturday, September 1, 2007
Mike, On Predicting College Football
Football is back in a big way once again, and as has been a tradition, both here and on my radio program, when a sport starts, I make predictions and tell you who will do what. Most of the time, I’m fairly accurate, so as another season of college football begins on Thursday, it’s time to take a look into the crystal ball. We’ll go in reverse order picking the winner of every conference, and then outline who will be playing in the BCS games.
Conference USA
This conference is slowly becoming a one team conference in both of the moneymaking sports. Memphis is obviously the dominant basketball power, and Southern Miss is making a push to assume the same position in football. They are the defending champs, and it doesn’t look like they’re all that eager to give up that title. Houston lost Kolb to the draft, and no one else really came close to touching the Golden Eagles last year. Because of a weak conference slate, Southern Miss will travel to both Tennessee and Boise State in September this year, which should toughen them up for conference play, despite the fact that I think they’ll lose both.
Biggest Game: Oct 28, Central Florida @ Southern Miss
Champ Southern Miss
Mid-American
This conference was rated above only the Sun Belt (which I’m not previewing because it’s not really a conference) last season. So how did they respond? By adding Temple! The only reason Temple even won a game last year is because they scheduled Duke, who has now lost 20 consecutive games. The rest of the conference is average at best. Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Kent State, and Akron all have decent pieces in place, but I don’t see anyone in this conference that will be able to pull a big-time upset. If you push me to name a winner, I have to take Central Michigan because of their recent success and the return of Dan Lefevour, a personal favorite of my former radio show partner Chris Phelan, at quarterback. Also, make sure you tune in on September 8. If you thought Temple and Duke was fun, wait until you see Buffalo @ Temple. WaHoo!
Biggest Game: Sept 22, Kent State @ Akron
Champ: Central Michigan
Mountain West
Like Conference USA, this is starting to get a bit repetitive. Outside of Utah’s undefeated season under Alex Smith, BYU and TCU appear to be the only two teams capable of winning year in and year out. TCU has a great recruiting base and always seems to be able to run the ball well (think LaDanian Tomlinson). BYU lost John Beck, just as Houston lost Kolb, so the balance of power might shift back towards the Horned Frogs this year. Hopefully someone will come up and surprise this year to make the race interesting, but outside of Colorado State or Wyoming, I don’t see that happening. It’s a two horse race, and the game between the two will decide it all.
Biggest Game: Nov 8, TCU @ BYU
Champ: TCU
Western Athletic
If you’re looking for a non-BCS team to crash the party this year, once again the WAC has the best possible options. In fact, I think that this conference could potentially still have two undefeated teams after the third Saturday in November. Colt Brennan is simply phenomenal, and he has a great receiving corps back as well. Everyone hates making the trip to Hawaii, and their road games – La Tech, UNLV, Idaho, SJ St, and Nevada – don’t exactly scare anyone. Meanwhile, the blue SmurfTurf boys will be back at it once again, looking to continue the longest winning streak in Major College Football. Don’t think they can’t do it again – Ian Johnson is very good, and very few teams go to Boise and even keep it close, let alone win. Boise State does have a trip to Washington and a home date with Southern Miss in September, but two wins there sets up the winner-take-all showdown in Honolulu on November 23.
Biggest Game: Nov 23, Boise State @ Hawaii
Champ: Hawaii
Independents
Ok, so maybe that should read “Notre Dame,” but there’s still no better game in all of college football, for my money, than Army-Navy. That said, it appears Notre Dame will once again win the Commander-in-Chief trophy as the winner of the service academy series, which is good, because they might be the only games ND wins. They have a real possibility of starting 0-3, with a home game against Georgia Tech and road dates with Penn State and Michigan. And this year, you can’t even count on Michigan State falling apart now that John L. Smith is gone. Follow that with the alphabet soup of UCLA, BC, and USC, and I don’t see the golden domers in a bowl game this season. I guess it’s good that the last four games are Navy, Air Force, Duke, and Stanford. At least they might win four games this year.
Biggest Game: Dec 1, Navy vs. Army in Baltimore
Champ: Navy
Atlantic Coast
For the third consecutive year, this will be the worst BCS conference. I bet they’re glad they raided the Big East for their “good” football teams. Oops. The other intriguing storyline is that NC State and Boston College seem to be the front runners in the ACC Atlantic, and Tom O’Brien left the latter to coach the former in the offseason. While they will assume the spotlight, however, the old man down in Tallahassee will assemble the real champ, provided, of course, that Drew Weatherford can simply not make mistakes. I like Miami and Virginia Tech to rebound from tough seasons and compete for the Coastal championship, but in a fairly even conference with no clear favorite, seven or eight teams have a shot to win it. And maybe – just maybe – Duke might win a game… nah.
Biggest Game: Nov 17, Miami @ Virginia Tech
Champ: Florida State
Big 12
There really is no reason for two divisions in this conference. Just make it one big division and have the top two teams play. At least the championship game would be interesting. As it is, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech will beat each other up for the right to destroy Nebraska in the conference championship game. Every game between those four teams will be exciting and hotly-contested, and it’s quite possible that Nebraska will actually have a better conference record than whoever emerges from the South. Don’t let that fool you, however – the South team will be better and will win the Big 12 Championship. The only question is which of the four teams it will be. Somehow, Texas A&M always loses a game they should win, and Texas Tech simply doesn’t have enough talent to win all three of those games without any other stumbles, so it comes down to the Red River Shootout, and Oklahoma is due. That said, I’ll take Texas.
Biggest Game: Oct 6, Oklahoma vs. Texas in Dallas
Champ: Texas
Big East
What was a three horse league last year will once again be a three horse league this year. The same three schools – Rutgers, West Virginia, and Louisville – all beat each other last year, and this year will all look to redeem themselves by repaying those losses at home. The only three games that matter this season are Rutgers @ Louisville, West Virginia @ Rutgers, and Louisville @ West Virginia. It’s the last one that will really matter, because I think Rutgers, while they will still be good, will lose both of their two marquee games. With Steve Slaton and Pat White returning and the game in Morgantown, Steve Kragthorpe will be unable to return Louisville to the top of the Big East. The Cardinals could still easily pull off an 11-1 record, which might just be good enough for the BCS even without the automatic bid.
Biggest Game: Nov 8, Louisville @ West Virginia
Champ: West Virginia
Southeastern
The debate continues to rage – is the SEC better than the Big Ten? The answer is no. Neither conference is better than the other. Despite the BCS Championship Game last year, the top of the Big Ten is better than the top of the SEC. What the SEC does have, however, is depth. There are ten teams that have a shot at a bowl game this year, which is everyone in the conference that doesn’t play in the state of Mississippi. Alabama will be better, as will South Carolina, Georgia, and Vanderbilt. Kentucky has possibly the best player in the conference in Andre Woodson, and Florida is the defending national champion. Auburn and LSU have stellar defense each and every year, which is crucial in college football, and some even seem to the think that with JaMarcus Russell gone, LSU’s offense will be better, a sentiment I echo. All of these teams will fall just short, however, of the Volunteers in Rocky Top. Tennessee has two very difficult road games early on – California and Florida – but the rest of the schedule is extremely favorable, with Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas all at home and the terrible Tigers – both LSU and Auburn – off the schedule entirely. Even with one early loss, the conference is balanced enough for Tennessee to win the East and the conference championship.
Biggest Game: Sept 15, Tennessee @ Florida; Oct 20, Auburn @ LSU
Champ: Tennessee
Pacific 10
I could probably rename this conference the Pac-9 plus 1, because that’s pretty much what it is. Sure, USC has a pretty brutal schedule, with road games against Notre Dame and Nebraska to go along with their nine conference games, but the Trojans should win both of those games. This program is simply too deep and too good. The biggest trap for them is the road game against Arizona State and Dennis Erickson sandwiched between the trip to California and the rivalry (read: revenge) game against UCLA at the end of the season. Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, and Washington should all have decent teams and compete for bowl bids, but the race this year is for third behind USC and California. I don’t see another BCS team out of here unless USC is upset somewhere along the line, so the Rose Bowl will have to find another team.
Biggest Game: Nov 10, USC @ California
Champ: USC
Big Ten
Saving the best for last, the Big Ten should be a four team race this season, with Michigan as the odds-on favorite. Wisconsin has P.J. Hill back, but with the graduation of quarterback John Stocco, the leadership void might be too big to fill in one season. Penn State has an excellent defense, as always, with Justin King and Anthony Scirrotto leading the way, but questions still abound about Anthony Morrelli at QB and who will replace Tony Hunt. Ohio State is in a similar position, except with even more offensive pieces to replace. Meanwhile, Michigan has every major offensive weapon back, as QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, and OT Jake Long all opted to return for their senior years. This is a program that has gone 0-6 combined between Ohio State and bowl games, including a 32-18 drubbing against USC last year. With a favorable schedule – Notre Dame, PSU, and OSU all at home and only 4 road games – expect Michigan to be atop the conference when November ends. Speaking of schedules, the trip to Ann Arbor is the only real test for Penn State, as they get Wisconsin, ND, and OSU at home as well, so two bids to the BCS is highly likely for the Big Ten.
Biggest Game: Sept 22, Penn State @ Michigan
Champ: Michigan
BCS BOWLS
Rose: Oklahoma vs. Penn State
Sugar: Tennessee vs. Louisville
Orange: Florida State vs. West Virginia
Fiesta: Texas vs. LSU
Champ: USC vs. Michigan
Remember that 0-6 record for Michigan against Ohio State and in bowls? Well they’ll beat Ohio State, but you can make it 1-7 – USC is simply too good. Michigan will keep it closer than last year, but I see a 35-31 title win for the Trojans, the new college football dynasty.
Conference USA
This conference is slowly becoming a one team conference in both of the moneymaking sports. Memphis is obviously the dominant basketball power, and Southern Miss is making a push to assume the same position in football. They are the defending champs, and it doesn’t look like they’re all that eager to give up that title. Houston lost Kolb to the draft, and no one else really came close to touching the Golden Eagles last year. Because of a weak conference slate, Southern Miss will travel to both Tennessee and Boise State in September this year, which should toughen them up for conference play, despite the fact that I think they’ll lose both.
Biggest Game: Oct 28, Central Florida @ Southern Miss
Champ Southern Miss
Mid-American
This conference was rated above only the Sun Belt (which I’m not previewing because it’s not really a conference) last season. So how did they respond? By adding Temple! The only reason Temple even won a game last year is because they scheduled Duke, who has now lost 20 consecutive games. The rest of the conference is average at best. Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Kent State, and Akron all have decent pieces in place, but I don’t see anyone in this conference that will be able to pull a big-time upset. If you push me to name a winner, I have to take Central Michigan because of their recent success and the return of Dan Lefevour, a personal favorite of my former radio show partner Chris Phelan, at quarterback. Also, make sure you tune in on September 8. If you thought Temple and Duke was fun, wait until you see Buffalo @ Temple. WaHoo!
Biggest Game: Sept 22, Kent State @ Akron
Champ: Central Michigan
Mountain West
Like Conference USA, this is starting to get a bit repetitive. Outside of Utah’s undefeated season under Alex Smith, BYU and TCU appear to be the only two teams capable of winning year in and year out. TCU has a great recruiting base and always seems to be able to run the ball well (think LaDanian Tomlinson). BYU lost John Beck, just as Houston lost Kolb, so the balance of power might shift back towards the Horned Frogs this year. Hopefully someone will come up and surprise this year to make the race interesting, but outside of Colorado State or Wyoming, I don’t see that happening. It’s a two horse race, and the game between the two will decide it all.
Biggest Game: Nov 8, TCU @ BYU
Champ: TCU
Western Athletic
If you’re looking for a non-BCS team to crash the party this year, once again the WAC has the best possible options. In fact, I think that this conference could potentially still have two undefeated teams after the third Saturday in November. Colt Brennan is simply phenomenal, and he has a great receiving corps back as well. Everyone hates making the trip to Hawaii, and their road games – La Tech, UNLV, Idaho, SJ St, and Nevada – don’t exactly scare anyone. Meanwhile, the blue SmurfTurf boys will be back at it once again, looking to continue the longest winning streak in Major College Football. Don’t think they can’t do it again – Ian Johnson is very good, and very few teams go to Boise and even keep it close, let alone win. Boise State does have a trip to Washington and a home date with Southern Miss in September, but two wins there sets up the winner-take-all showdown in Honolulu on November 23.
Biggest Game: Nov 23, Boise State @ Hawaii
Champ: Hawaii
Independents
Ok, so maybe that should read “Notre Dame,” but there’s still no better game in all of college football, for my money, than Army-Navy. That said, it appears Notre Dame will once again win the Commander-in-Chief trophy as the winner of the service academy series, which is good, because they might be the only games ND wins. They have a real possibility of starting 0-3, with a home game against Georgia Tech and road dates with Penn State and Michigan. And this year, you can’t even count on Michigan State falling apart now that John L. Smith is gone. Follow that with the alphabet soup of UCLA, BC, and USC, and I don’t see the golden domers in a bowl game this season. I guess it’s good that the last four games are Navy, Air Force, Duke, and Stanford. At least they might win four games this year.
Biggest Game: Dec 1, Navy vs. Army in Baltimore
Champ: Navy
Atlantic Coast
For the third consecutive year, this will be the worst BCS conference. I bet they’re glad they raided the Big East for their “good” football teams. Oops. The other intriguing storyline is that NC State and Boston College seem to be the front runners in the ACC Atlantic, and Tom O’Brien left the latter to coach the former in the offseason. While they will assume the spotlight, however, the old man down in Tallahassee will assemble the real champ, provided, of course, that Drew Weatherford can simply not make mistakes. I like Miami and Virginia Tech to rebound from tough seasons and compete for the Coastal championship, but in a fairly even conference with no clear favorite, seven or eight teams have a shot to win it. And maybe – just maybe – Duke might win a game… nah.
Biggest Game: Nov 17, Miami @ Virginia Tech
Champ: Florida State
Big 12
There really is no reason for two divisions in this conference. Just make it one big division and have the top two teams play. At least the championship game would be interesting. As it is, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech will beat each other up for the right to destroy Nebraska in the conference championship game. Every game between those four teams will be exciting and hotly-contested, and it’s quite possible that Nebraska will actually have a better conference record than whoever emerges from the South. Don’t let that fool you, however – the South team will be better and will win the Big 12 Championship. The only question is which of the four teams it will be. Somehow, Texas A&M always loses a game they should win, and Texas Tech simply doesn’t have enough talent to win all three of those games without any other stumbles, so it comes down to the Red River Shootout, and Oklahoma is due. That said, I’ll take Texas.
Biggest Game: Oct 6, Oklahoma vs. Texas in Dallas
Champ: Texas
Big East
What was a three horse league last year will once again be a three horse league this year. The same three schools – Rutgers, West Virginia, and Louisville – all beat each other last year, and this year will all look to redeem themselves by repaying those losses at home. The only three games that matter this season are Rutgers @ Louisville, West Virginia @ Rutgers, and Louisville @ West Virginia. It’s the last one that will really matter, because I think Rutgers, while they will still be good, will lose both of their two marquee games. With Steve Slaton and Pat White returning and the game in Morgantown, Steve Kragthorpe will be unable to return Louisville to the top of the Big East. The Cardinals could still easily pull off an 11-1 record, which might just be good enough for the BCS even without the automatic bid.
Biggest Game: Nov 8, Louisville @ West Virginia
Champ: West Virginia
Southeastern
The debate continues to rage – is the SEC better than the Big Ten? The answer is no. Neither conference is better than the other. Despite the BCS Championship Game last year, the top of the Big Ten is better than the top of the SEC. What the SEC does have, however, is depth. There are ten teams that have a shot at a bowl game this year, which is everyone in the conference that doesn’t play in the state of Mississippi. Alabama will be better, as will South Carolina, Georgia, and Vanderbilt. Kentucky has possibly the best player in the conference in Andre Woodson, and Florida is the defending national champion. Auburn and LSU have stellar defense each and every year, which is crucial in college football, and some even seem to the think that with JaMarcus Russell gone, LSU’s offense will be better, a sentiment I echo. All of these teams will fall just short, however, of the Volunteers in Rocky Top. Tennessee has two very difficult road games early on – California and Florida – but the rest of the schedule is extremely favorable, with Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas all at home and the terrible Tigers – both LSU and Auburn – off the schedule entirely. Even with one early loss, the conference is balanced enough for Tennessee to win the East and the conference championship.
Biggest Game: Sept 15, Tennessee @ Florida; Oct 20, Auburn @ LSU
Champ: Tennessee
Pacific 10
I could probably rename this conference the Pac-9 plus 1, because that’s pretty much what it is. Sure, USC has a pretty brutal schedule, with road games against Notre Dame and Nebraska to go along with their nine conference games, but the Trojans should win both of those games. This program is simply too deep and too good. The biggest trap for them is the road game against Arizona State and Dennis Erickson sandwiched between the trip to California and the rivalry (read: revenge) game against UCLA at the end of the season. Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, and Washington should all have decent teams and compete for bowl bids, but the race this year is for third behind USC and California. I don’t see another BCS team out of here unless USC is upset somewhere along the line, so the Rose Bowl will have to find another team.
Biggest Game: Nov 10, USC @ California
Champ: USC
Big Ten
Saving the best for last, the Big Ten should be a four team race this season, with Michigan as the odds-on favorite. Wisconsin has P.J. Hill back, but with the graduation of quarterback John Stocco, the leadership void might be too big to fill in one season. Penn State has an excellent defense, as always, with Justin King and Anthony Scirrotto leading the way, but questions still abound about Anthony Morrelli at QB and who will replace Tony Hunt. Ohio State is in a similar position, except with even more offensive pieces to replace. Meanwhile, Michigan has every major offensive weapon back, as QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, and OT Jake Long all opted to return for their senior years. This is a program that has gone 0-6 combined between Ohio State and bowl games, including a 32-18 drubbing against USC last year. With a favorable schedule – Notre Dame, PSU, and OSU all at home and only 4 road games – expect Michigan to be atop the conference when November ends. Speaking of schedules, the trip to Ann Arbor is the only real test for Penn State, as they get Wisconsin, ND, and OSU at home as well, so two bids to the BCS is highly likely for the Big Ten.
Biggest Game: Sept 22, Penn State @ Michigan
Champ: Michigan
BCS BOWLS
Rose: Oklahoma vs. Penn State
Sugar: Tennessee vs. Louisville
Orange: Florida State vs. West Virginia
Fiesta: Texas vs. LSU
Champ: USC vs. Michigan
Remember that 0-6 record for Michigan against Ohio State and in bowls? Well they’ll beat Ohio State, but you can make it 1-7 – USC is simply too good. Michigan will keep it closer than last year, but I see a 35-31 title win for the Trojans, the new college football dynasty.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
On Teams That Play a Real Game in the Season Opener (NCAAF)
Each week this college football season, or until I get tired of it, I will be posting the three games of the week with the largest BCS implications. Not just for the title game, but for who will be invited to the BCS.
While most big-time NCAA football teams play a de facto exhibition game to start the season, at home against an overmatched opponents, a very few play a real game. In fact, there's only one game that matches Top 25 opponents, so we'll start with that one:
1. #15 Tennessee at #12 California. Both of these teams are are at the fringes of title consideration this year, talented but overshadowed by others in their conferences. The winner of this game establishes themselves as a real contender, while the loser is pretty much out of at-large contention. Since Cal probably can't take USC, and Tennessee probably won't beat both Florida and Georgia, they would both be well-advised to win this game. Adding flavor for California is the fact that last year, when they were touted as a real competitor for USC, Tennessee crushed them.
2. #19 Florida State at Clemson. As Wake Forest proved last year, the ACC Atlantic is pretty much anybody's for the taking. While they both disappointed last year, the Bowdens' teams have the most talent in the division, and the winner will be in the early driver's seat to reach the ACC title game.
3. Wake Forest at Boston College. Thank goodness the ACC opens with conference games. The Bowden Bowl matches the two most talented teams in the ACC Atlantic, but this game matches the two most accomplished. With NC State and Maryland returning solid teams as well, any team in this division could finish first or last. For Boston College, who has been one win away from the conference title or title game for three straight seasons, and who is starting fourteen seniors, it's now or never. For Wake, this is the first step toward defending their ACC title.
Predictions: Tennessee, Clemson, BC.
While most big-time NCAA football teams play a de facto exhibition game to start the season, at home against an overmatched opponents, a very few play a real game. In fact, there's only one game that matches Top 25 opponents, so we'll start with that one:
1. #15 Tennessee at #12 California. Both of these teams are are at the fringes of title consideration this year, talented but overshadowed by others in their conferences. The winner of this game establishes themselves as a real contender, while the loser is pretty much out of at-large contention. Since Cal probably can't take USC, and Tennessee probably won't beat both Florida and Georgia, they would both be well-advised to win this game. Adding flavor for California is the fact that last year, when they were touted as a real competitor for USC, Tennessee crushed them.
2. #19 Florida State at Clemson. As Wake Forest proved last year, the ACC Atlantic is pretty much anybody's for the taking. While they both disappointed last year, the Bowdens' teams have the most talent in the division, and the winner will be in the early driver's seat to reach the ACC title game.
3. Wake Forest at Boston College. Thank goodness the ACC opens with conference games. The Bowden Bowl matches the two most talented teams in the ACC Atlantic, but this game matches the two most accomplished. With NC State and Maryland returning solid teams as well, any team in this division could finish first or last. For Boston College, who has been one win away from the conference title or title game for three straight seasons, and who is starting fourteen seniors, it's now or never. For Wake, this is the first step toward defending their ACC title.
Predictions: Tennessee, Clemson, BC.
Saturday, August 25, 2007
On The Future of US Soccer
Soccer formations vary, but teams generally follow variations on four templates. Listed by number of defenders-midfielders-strikers, there are the 4-4-2, the 4-3-3, the 4-5-1 and the 3-5-2. One will note that each of these involves somewhere between three and five midfielders, and at least one striker.
The United States, fielding just about their best possible team against Sweden, played four defenders and six midfielders. The scary thing is that it made almost perfect sense.
Right now, there are a lot of very good American midfielders and very few top-class strikers. In fact, with Brian McBride’s recent injury, there are exactly zero American strikers on the game-day rosters of major European clubs. Because of this, National Team coach Bob Bradley elected to play Landon Donovan, who is naturally an attacking midfielder, and Clint Dempsey, who is a right wing midfielder, up front. It was a worthy experiment.
But it didn’t work, and the question is what to do next. I think the first order of business is to extend Bradley’s contract through the 2010 World Cup. This is not because I have been impressed by his record so far (although he has done well), but because what is best in the short-term and long-term of US soccer is not the same. Trying to shoehorn Donovan and Dempsey into attack is dangerously short-sighted. It is also the correct move for Bradley to make, if he is interested getting results now and therefore keeping his job. Only once his job is ensured will he be able to get down to preparing his team for the National Team’s next important match, which is in 2010.
That’s right, the USA plays soccer games that matter exactly once every four years. Only European teams have a continental championship that truly counts. The Gold Cup doesn’t matter. The Copa America would be interesting if everyone took it seriously, but in general, they do not. Certainly we didn’t. Even the World Cup qualifiers don’t really matter, in the sense that there is not a significant probability we would not qualify. We could lose to Mexico 10-0, and all we would still need to do is finish ahead of Costa Rica, Jamaica, Canada, Trinidad, etc. In fact, one of them could beat us and we’d still go. Even if two of them beat us, we would get into a playoff with the fifth South American team, who we might still beat. The point is, we’re making it to South Africa.
And that tournament is going a huge opportunity for us. This is because much of old guard (McBride, Reyna, Pope, Keller) has retired from the national team since the World Cup, meaning our best team right now is almost completely made up of players who should still be in their primes in the summer of 2010. Soccer stars tend to peak earlier the further forward they play; strikers usually peak in their late teens or early to mid-twenties, midfielders anywhere in their twenties, depending on how much their game is speed-based, defenders in their mid or late twenties, and goalkeepers in their late twenties or early thirties.
Here is the approximate US roster now, along with the players’ ages and current league.
Goalkeepers:
Tim Howard (28)
Marcus Hahnemann (35)
Defenders
Jonathan Bornstein (22)
Carlos Bocanegra (28)
Oguchi Oneywu (25)
Steve Cherundolo (28)
Jonathan Spector (21)
Jay DeMerit (27)
Central Midfielders
DaMarcus Beasley (25)
Michael Bradley (20)
Ricardo Clark (24)
Clint Dempsey (24)
Landon Donovan (25)
Benny Feilhaber (22)
Pablo Mastroeni (29)
Strikers
Brian Ching (29)
Eddie Johnson (23)
Taylor Twellman (27)
As you can see, almost all of these players should have three more good years in them. Hahnemann may not, but Howard is definitely the top goalkeeper regardless. Oneywu, Bornstein and Spector, as inexperienced defenders, will almost certainly be better than they are now, and unless Bocanegra and DeMerit both suffer a drop-off in play, that will form a capable back line.
Six of the seven midfielders listed should be available. Mastroeni is the lone exception, and his red card against Italy last summer shows that he is likely to be a liability anyhow. He was put in the squad for his tackling, but by now either Bradley or Clark can perform that role just as well, and with better offensive skills.
Beasley, Dempsey and Feilhaber are especially encouraging. All play on top teams in the UK and all have played well recently. Along with Donovan, they are the heart of the team.
That leaves us with a big hole in attack. Ching and Twellman will be old, and they have never been world-class anyhow. Eddie Johnson has potential, but ranges constantly from brilliant to awful. In MLS, he followed a 12 goal season in 2004 with 7 in 2005 and 2006 combined, but has 12 again this year. It is worth mentioning that as a striker, at age 23, he has still not yet found a place in Europe.
This leaves us with a potential lineup as follows:
GK Howard
LB Bornstein
CB Bocanegra/DeMerit
CB Oneywu
RB Cherundolo/Spector
DM Bradley
DM Feilhaber
LW Beasley
AM Donovan
RW Dempsey
CF Johnson
We have gotten very close to the lineup that Coach Bradley used against Sweden. The only difference is that Mastroeni started as a defensive midfielder, pushing Feilhaber to the right and Dempsey up top. Since Donovan and Mastroeni were called from MLS, we can assume that Eddie Johnson’s absence was no coincidence. It was worth it, in the man whose opinion we pay for, to play more than one player out of position in order not to use any strikers at all. And that is not encouraging.
Luckily, we have one great hope. Let’s see if you can guess him. He first impressed on the U-17 team, before moving into the MLS. He starred at this summer’s U-20 World Cup; at least one of his goals there made SportsCenter. His parents weren’t born here. His last name starts with an “A.” Have a guess?
It’s Jozy Altidore.
Altidore, who is five months younger than Freddy Adu, is our best chance to have a world-class striker by 2010. He is listed at 6’1” and 175 pounds. He is fast. He scored his team’s only goal in his first MLS playoff series. He has scored or assisted 11 goals in 16 games this season. He has drawn European club interest, but was not eligible to be transferred overseas this summer, because he has yet to turn 18. Altidore is almost as good as Johnson already, and he, not Johnson, has to be the eleventh starter for the future US team.
Does that mean Bradley should have Altidore starting right now? No. We need look no further than Adu to question the wisdom of christening a player the savior of American soccer too early. But it does mean that Bradley should stop experimenting with Dempsey in attack, and let him play in the wider position in which he starred—and scored—at the World Cup. There is no use in teaching Dempsey to play Altidore’s spot.
In the meantime, Bradley should just play an Altidore proxy. Since none of the potential starters are really effective, pick the one whose game is closest stylistically to Altidore. That probably is Johnson, who is about the same size, but I suppose could also be Ching or Ante Razov. Bradley has been reluctant to use these players because they are not up to standards in the present, and they are certainly not the future. That’s okay. If someone comes out of nowhere, you can see it at club level and give them a shot. Unless that Player X falls from the blue, the right guy for the attacking job now is the one who can best keep Jozy’s spot warm for a year or so. I know that’s putting all our eggs in one basket, but what else can we do?
Besides, of course, getting Brian McBride’s agent back on the phone.
The United States, fielding just about their best possible team against Sweden, played four defenders and six midfielders. The scary thing is that it made almost perfect sense.
Right now, there are a lot of very good American midfielders and very few top-class strikers. In fact, with Brian McBride’s recent injury, there are exactly zero American strikers on the game-day rosters of major European clubs. Because of this, National Team coach Bob Bradley elected to play Landon Donovan, who is naturally an attacking midfielder, and Clint Dempsey, who is a right wing midfielder, up front. It was a worthy experiment.
But it didn’t work, and the question is what to do next. I think the first order of business is to extend Bradley’s contract through the 2010 World Cup. This is not because I have been impressed by his record so far (although he has done well), but because what is best in the short-term and long-term of US soccer is not the same. Trying to shoehorn Donovan and Dempsey into attack is dangerously short-sighted. It is also the correct move for Bradley to make, if he is interested getting results now and therefore keeping his job. Only once his job is ensured will he be able to get down to preparing his team for the National Team’s next important match, which is in 2010.
That’s right, the USA plays soccer games that matter exactly once every four years. Only European teams have a continental championship that truly counts. The Gold Cup doesn’t matter. The Copa America would be interesting if everyone took it seriously, but in general, they do not. Certainly we didn’t. Even the World Cup qualifiers don’t really matter, in the sense that there is not a significant probability we would not qualify. We could lose to Mexico 10-0, and all we would still need to do is finish ahead of Costa Rica, Jamaica, Canada, Trinidad, etc. In fact, one of them could beat us and we’d still go. Even if two of them beat us, we would get into a playoff with the fifth South American team, who we might still beat. The point is, we’re making it to South Africa.
And that tournament is going a huge opportunity for us. This is because much of old guard (McBride, Reyna, Pope, Keller) has retired from the national team since the World Cup, meaning our best team right now is almost completely made up of players who should still be in their primes in the summer of 2010. Soccer stars tend to peak earlier the further forward they play; strikers usually peak in their late teens or early to mid-twenties, midfielders anywhere in their twenties, depending on how much their game is speed-based, defenders in their mid or late twenties, and goalkeepers in their late twenties or early thirties.
Here is the approximate US roster now, along with the players’ ages and current league.
Goalkeepers:
Tim Howard (28)
Marcus Hahnemann (35)
Defenders
Jonathan Bornstein (22)
Carlos Bocanegra (28)
Oguchi Oneywu (25)
Steve Cherundolo (28)
Jonathan Spector (21)
Jay DeMerit (27)
Central Midfielders
DaMarcus Beasley (25)
Michael Bradley (20)
Ricardo Clark (24)
Clint Dempsey (24)
Landon Donovan (25)
Benny Feilhaber (22)
Pablo Mastroeni (29)
Strikers
Brian Ching (29)
Eddie Johnson (23)
Taylor Twellman (27)
As you can see, almost all of these players should have three more good years in them. Hahnemann may not, but Howard is definitely the top goalkeeper regardless. Oneywu, Bornstein and Spector, as inexperienced defenders, will almost certainly be better than they are now, and unless Bocanegra and DeMerit both suffer a drop-off in play, that will form a capable back line.
Six of the seven midfielders listed should be available. Mastroeni is the lone exception, and his red card against Italy last summer shows that he is likely to be a liability anyhow. He was put in the squad for his tackling, but by now either Bradley or Clark can perform that role just as well, and with better offensive skills.
Beasley, Dempsey and Feilhaber are especially encouraging. All play on top teams in the UK and all have played well recently. Along with Donovan, they are the heart of the team.
That leaves us with a big hole in attack. Ching and Twellman will be old, and they have never been world-class anyhow. Eddie Johnson has potential, but ranges constantly from brilliant to awful. In MLS, he followed a 12 goal season in 2004 with 7 in 2005 and 2006 combined, but has 12 again this year. It is worth mentioning that as a striker, at age 23, he has still not yet found a place in Europe.
This leaves us with a potential lineup as follows:
GK Howard
LB Bornstein
CB Bocanegra/DeMerit
CB Oneywu
RB Cherundolo/Spector
DM Bradley
DM Feilhaber
LW Beasley
AM Donovan
RW Dempsey
CF Johnson
We have gotten very close to the lineup that Coach Bradley used against Sweden. The only difference is that Mastroeni started as a defensive midfielder, pushing Feilhaber to the right and Dempsey up top. Since Donovan and Mastroeni were called from MLS, we can assume that Eddie Johnson’s absence was no coincidence. It was worth it, in the man whose opinion we pay for, to play more than one player out of position in order not to use any strikers at all. And that is not encouraging.
Luckily, we have one great hope. Let’s see if you can guess him. He first impressed on the U-17 team, before moving into the MLS. He starred at this summer’s U-20 World Cup; at least one of his goals there made SportsCenter. His parents weren’t born here. His last name starts with an “A.” Have a guess?
It’s Jozy Altidore.
Altidore, who is five months younger than Freddy Adu, is our best chance to have a world-class striker by 2010. He is listed at 6’1” and 175 pounds. He is fast. He scored his team’s only goal in his first MLS playoff series. He has scored or assisted 11 goals in 16 games this season. He has drawn European club interest, but was not eligible to be transferred overseas this summer, because he has yet to turn 18. Altidore is almost as good as Johnson already, and he, not Johnson, has to be the eleventh starter for the future US team.
Does that mean Bradley should have Altidore starting right now? No. We need look no further than Adu to question the wisdom of christening a player the savior of American soccer too early. But it does mean that Bradley should stop experimenting with Dempsey in attack, and let him play in the wider position in which he starred—and scored—at the World Cup. There is no use in teaching Dempsey to play Altidore’s spot.
In the meantime, Bradley should just play an Altidore proxy. Since none of the potential starters are really effective, pick the one whose game is closest stylistically to Altidore. That probably is Johnson, who is about the same size, but I suppose could also be Ching or Ante Razov. Bradley has been reluctant to use these players because they are not up to standards in the present, and they are certainly not the future. That’s okay. If someone comes out of nowhere, you can see it at club level and give them a shot. Unless that Player X falls from the blue, the right guy for the attacking job now is the one who can best keep Jozy’s spot warm for a year or so. I know that’s putting all our eggs in one basket, but what else can we do?
Besides, of course, getting Brian McBride’s agent back on the phone.
Mike, On Five Worse Than Vick (general)
Let me start by saying I despise Michael Vick. I never thought he was a good quarterback, just a good athlete who happened to take the ball from the center when it was snapped. He was always better suited for a running back or a wide receiver, but for some reason, the Falcons insisted on using him as their franchise QB, as well as the face of their organization. Now, owner Arthur Blank and the rest of the front office and coaching staff have to deal with a huge PR nightmare because of their despicable star committing some despicable acts. I won’t go into them - you know what they are.
However, the slant of this column might surprise you. Despite my deep dislike for Vick, I have listened to news and sports columnists, reporters, talk show hosts, and pundits condemn Vick and rant and rave about his actions. As I said, yes, they were horrible. But honestly, there have been worse acts committed by athletes and people involved in sports over the years. And so, without further ado, here’s one man’s list of 5 people currently involved in sports than are more despicable than Michael Vick:
5. Kobe Bryant
Never has there been a more destructive athlete to team morale than Kobe Bryant. Look at the track record. He forced one of the ten best players ever out of town and broke up a dynasty so he could try to win a championship all by himself and not have to share the glory. Next, he ushers his coach out the door, only to pout and moan and whine and complain until his coach was hired back. Then, to top it all off, he doesn’t even run his coach’s offense and instead jacks up a hundred shots a game and continues to complain, saying he has no help. The final straw this offseason was his demand that the Lakers get him more help or trade him, a statement he still hasn’t entirely taken back. What kind of role model is Kobe being with all this me-first thinking? He’s really taking sports down a bad road. What would happen if every athlete thought only of himself first?
4. Joe Paterno
So a couple of your players get in a fight and are arrested. Does that mean you make the entire team clean a stadium that seats over 100,000 people after every home game? Of course not. In fact, even making the accused clean the stadium would be callous and cold hearted. What kind of man is this, punishing everyone for the sins of the few? It almost seems like Paterno is trying to teach teamwork and show his players that no one man is bigger than the team. Joe’s still stuck on the whole, “There’s no ‘I’ in team,” mantra, but someone needs to tell Joe that there is, in fact, a “me.”
3. LeBron James
Here’s a guy that needs a scandal. Sure, he does the Sprite commercials, and yes, he has major endorsements with Nike. But LeBron’s rap sheet is squeaky clean. Not even a speeding ticket or traffic citation. With the current climate of athletics, how can LeBron expect to stay in the mainstream spotlight and continue to garner any air time on ESPN if he doesn’t commit some kind of crime? He needs to at least do steroids or something – sure, people will hate him, but maybe then Dave O’Brien and Rick Sutcliffe will have something to do and ESPN2 will have programming people will actually watch. Come on, LBJ – the NBA Finals is cool and all, but really, you’re only hurting yourself if you don’t get yourself on a police blotter soon.
2. Alex Rodriguez
Who yells “boo” at a third baseman trying to catch a popup? If you’re looking for a real villain, this is it. First, he sabotages an entire franchise by signing a 10-year, $250 million contract, then orchestrates a trade to the sports’ most prestigious franchise, the one with more championships than any other major professional sports franchise, and in the span of four years, the team completes the biggest collapse in the history of baseball, loses in the first round of the playoffs for the first time in the new century, and is now poised to fail to win the division for the first time in more than a decade. And some people still have the gall, after one decent year, to ask if A-Rod is a true Yankee? I think not.
1. Tiger Woods
If there’s one person in all of sports to hate more than Michael Vick, it has to be Tiger Woods. The list is remarkable. A supermodel wife. 13 major championships. Yelling at the crowd to be quiet. Failing to do anything of significance for his country in international play. Skipping out on Barclays Championship, the first tournament ever of the FedEx Cup. A clean rap sheet. More endorsements than any human should ever have. There’s just so much to dislike about this guy. And he’s way too good for his competition. It’s simply unfair, and what’s worse than an unfair playing field?
Oh, yeah, that’s right – dog fighting.
However, the slant of this column might surprise you. Despite my deep dislike for Vick, I have listened to news and sports columnists, reporters, talk show hosts, and pundits condemn Vick and rant and rave about his actions. As I said, yes, they were horrible. But honestly, there have been worse acts committed by athletes and people involved in sports over the years. And so, without further ado, here’s one man’s list of 5 people currently involved in sports than are more despicable than Michael Vick:
5. Kobe Bryant
Never has there been a more destructive athlete to team morale than Kobe Bryant. Look at the track record. He forced one of the ten best players ever out of town and broke up a dynasty so he could try to win a championship all by himself and not have to share the glory. Next, he ushers his coach out the door, only to pout and moan and whine and complain until his coach was hired back. Then, to top it all off, he doesn’t even run his coach’s offense and instead jacks up a hundred shots a game and continues to complain, saying he has no help. The final straw this offseason was his demand that the Lakers get him more help or trade him, a statement he still hasn’t entirely taken back. What kind of role model is Kobe being with all this me-first thinking? He’s really taking sports down a bad road. What would happen if every athlete thought only of himself first?
4. Joe Paterno
So a couple of your players get in a fight and are arrested. Does that mean you make the entire team clean a stadium that seats over 100,000 people after every home game? Of course not. In fact, even making the accused clean the stadium would be callous and cold hearted. What kind of man is this, punishing everyone for the sins of the few? It almost seems like Paterno is trying to teach teamwork and show his players that no one man is bigger than the team. Joe’s still stuck on the whole, “There’s no ‘I’ in team,” mantra, but someone needs to tell Joe that there is, in fact, a “me.”
3. LeBron James
Here’s a guy that needs a scandal. Sure, he does the Sprite commercials, and yes, he has major endorsements with Nike. But LeBron’s rap sheet is squeaky clean. Not even a speeding ticket or traffic citation. With the current climate of athletics, how can LeBron expect to stay in the mainstream spotlight and continue to garner any air time on ESPN if he doesn’t commit some kind of crime? He needs to at least do steroids or something – sure, people will hate him, but maybe then Dave O’Brien and Rick Sutcliffe will have something to do and ESPN2 will have programming people will actually watch. Come on, LBJ – the NBA Finals is cool and all, but really, you’re only hurting yourself if you don’t get yourself on a police blotter soon.
2. Alex Rodriguez
Who yells “boo” at a third baseman trying to catch a popup? If you’re looking for a real villain, this is it. First, he sabotages an entire franchise by signing a 10-year, $250 million contract, then orchestrates a trade to the sports’ most prestigious franchise, the one with more championships than any other major professional sports franchise, and in the span of four years, the team completes the biggest collapse in the history of baseball, loses in the first round of the playoffs for the first time in the new century, and is now poised to fail to win the division for the first time in more than a decade. And some people still have the gall, after one decent year, to ask if A-Rod is a true Yankee? I think not.
1. Tiger Woods
If there’s one person in all of sports to hate more than Michael Vick, it has to be Tiger Woods. The list is remarkable. A supermodel wife. 13 major championships. Yelling at the crowd to be quiet. Failing to do anything of significance for his country in international play. Skipping out on Barclays Championship, the first tournament ever of the FedEx Cup. A clean rap sheet. More endorsements than any human should ever have. There’s just so much to dislike about this guy. And he’s way too good for his competition. It’s simply unfair, and what’s worse than an unfair playing field?
Oh, yeah, that’s right – dog fighting.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
On the Greatest Game in MLS History (Soccer)
The MLS couldn’t have scripted it any better. New York. Los Angeles. Sixty-six thousand fans. Nine goals. Starring performances from both “Designated Players” and high-profile Americans. A full game out of a fairly healthy looking David Beckham. And a dramatic finish.
First and foremost, Becks looks ready to be the star the MLS needs him to be. His strengths really are perfectly suited to engage the casual fan. Since free kicks are his forte, there is a built-in stoppage of play for announcers to explain what he’s about to do. Otherwise, his long passes from play are roughly equivalent to long bombs in football or outlet passes in basketball, a skill that is easily understood. Most importantly of all, his competitive nature is unmistakable. During Saturday’s game, he was encouraging his teammates. He was trash-talking with opponents. He was yelling at referees. He was ecstatic when his team scored. He was disgusted when his team gave up the winning goal. He refused to come out. If there is one thing American sports fans expect from sports icons, from Lombardi to Jordan, it is a strong, frankly psychotic dedication to winning. And Beckham’s got it.
But against New York, he was foiled by the combined effort of three opposing stars. Juan Pablo Angel, a Columbian player brought in from the English league, scored the first and last goals of the match. The Red Bulls’ second goal came from Clint Mathis, who was a much-hyped American striker at the 2002 World Cup, and the third and fourth from 17-year-old Jozy Altidore, who is going to be our much-hyped striker in 2010. Landon Donovan, our much-hyped player of 2006, also scored for LA.
One reason for the high-scoring nature of the affair is the enforcement of the offside rule. In the European leagues and international play, it often seems that on close calls, the benefit of the doubt goes to the defense. In this match, the offense was getting those calls, which made for an entertaining style of play.
While Beckham certainly brought forward an exciting debut, in the end he walked out with a loss. Eight of thirteen MLS teams make the playoffs, a ratio that would embarrass even the NBA, but still the Galaxy are not sure of a place in it, especially considering that Beckham will have to miss some of the remaining games while on national team duty in Europe. A win would have gone a long way toward ensuring Beckham’s place in the postseason, and thus the MLS’ continued relevance in public consciousness.
OK, I guess it could have been scripted a little better.
First and foremost, Becks looks ready to be the star the MLS needs him to be. His strengths really are perfectly suited to engage the casual fan. Since free kicks are his forte, there is a built-in stoppage of play for announcers to explain what he’s about to do. Otherwise, his long passes from play are roughly equivalent to long bombs in football or outlet passes in basketball, a skill that is easily understood. Most importantly of all, his competitive nature is unmistakable. During Saturday’s game, he was encouraging his teammates. He was trash-talking with opponents. He was yelling at referees. He was ecstatic when his team scored. He was disgusted when his team gave up the winning goal. He refused to come out. If there is one thing American sports fans expect from sports icons, from Lombardi to Jordan, it is a strong, frankly psychotic dedication to winning. And Beckham’s got it.
But against New York, he was foiled by the combined effort of three opposing stars. Juan Pablo Angel, a Columbian player brought in from the English league, scored the first and last goals of the match. The Red Bulls’ second goal came from Clint Mathis, who was a much-hyped American striker at the 2002 World Cup, and the third and fourth from 17-year-old Jozy Altidore, who is going to be our much-hyped striker in 2010. Landon Donovan, our much-hyped player of 2006, also scored for LA.
One reason for the high-scoring nature of the affair is the enforcement of the offside rule. In the European leagues and international play, it often seems that on close calls, the benefit of the doubt goes to the defense. In this match, the offense was getting those calls, which made for an entertaining style of play.
While Beckham certainly brought forward an exciting debut, in the end he walked out with a loss. Eight of thirteen MLS teams make the playoffs, a ratio that would embarrass even the NBA, but still the Galaxy are not sure of a place in it, especially considering that Beckham will have to miss some of the remaining games while on national team duty in Europe. A win would have gone a long way toward ensuring Beckham’s place in the postseason, and thus the MLS’ continued relevance in public consciousness.
OK, I guess it could have been scripted a little better.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Mike, On His Preseason Predictions (MLB)
Every year around this time, I like to step away from the current baseball season and look back at the predictions I made in April, then revise and adjust as I see fit for the stretch run. Like Coate with his statistics and mathematical formulas, I absolutely love making predictions and watching to see how they turn out, plus mine requires a lot less critical thinking. So, without further ado, let’s look back at how I’ve done so far.
AL East (April) – New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay
AL East (August) – New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay
I’m not changing a thing with this division. Everyone I talked to wanted me to count out the Yankees when they were double digits back, and I refused. This is a team that has four guaranteed Hall-of-Famers (Jeter, Clemens, Rivera, and Rodriguez) as well as three borderline (Pettite, Mussina, and, believe it or not, Posada), an owner with no soul and an unending cash flow, and a manager that knows what he’s doing. Why would I disregard this team? Boston’s been good, yes, and their pitching IS better than the Yankees, but J.D. Drew has been a huge disappointment (which I think everyone but Theo Epstein knew would happen), Ramirez and Ortiz are off of their career paces, Varitek looks old, and Gagne’s been a mess since he was acquired. Oh, and did I mention this is the Yankees and Red Sox? Yeah, New York wins.
AL Central (April) – Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota, Kansas City
AL Central (August) – Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, Kansas City, Chicago
Ok, so I missed on the White Sox bouncing back. Oops. I did see the Indians struggling more than most people expected, simply because they’re still young and, for the most part, lack any postseason experience. That’s the advantage Detroit will use to win the division. Also, I predicted that the AL East would be too bad and the AL Central would be too good for the Wild Card to come from the Central. I wasn’t totally accurate on that, but even if the Yankees catch Boston, there’s no way both Cleveland AND Detroit do the same. Thus, it’s two from the AL East and only the Tigers from the Central. Meanwhile, the Royals had back-to-back months of over .500 baseball. They will catch the Sox before the season ends.
AL West (April) – Los Angeles, Seattle, Oakland, Texas
AL West (August) – Los Angeles, Seattle, Oakland, Texas
I like Seattle, I really do. I would love to see them pass the Angels, just to change up the postseason field a little. I just don’t think the pitching is there for the stretch run. Granted, LA is awful offensively, but September and October are pitching months, and the Angels still have, in my opinion, the nastiest closer in baseball in K-Rod. He showed LA’s superiority in the All-Star game where he had to clean up J.J. Putz’s mess in the ninth, and Putz pitches for – you guessed it – Seattle. Meanwhile, I called Oakland’s falling off after losing Zito and failing to add any sort of significant bat to an already weak lineup, but I definitely didn’t see Texas being this bad. Either way, last place is last place. Go me.
NL East (April) – New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Florida, Washington
NL East (August) – New York, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Florida, Washington
Yes, the Mets have struggled this year. They’re not the same team that they were last season. Still, despite the poor performances recently, neither of the chasers – Philly and Hotlanta – have managed to make any ground. These teams are matching each other stumble for stumble. Both the Mets and Braves are 5-5 in their last 10, and Philly’s only one better at 6-4. The Phils still have no discernable pitching after Hamels, while the Braves, despite good additions at the trading deadline, continue to play to the level of their competition. Meanwhile, the last 14 games for the Mets are against Florida and Washington, with a makeup against the Cardinals thrown in. If they’re still in first after September 16, you can forget about catching them.
NL Central (April) – Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Chicago, Houston, Pittsburgh
NL Central (August) – Milwaukee, Chicago, Saint Louis, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
Joining the White Sox as my worst pick of the year, ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Cincinnati Reds. I honestly thought the pitching would be better than it’s been, and in a weak division, I expected them to compete. However, I would like to introduce myself to Dane Cook as someone who DID see the Milwaukee Brewers coming. Young and talented, with veteran pitching, a good manager, and more than one bona fide future superstar, this team has what it takes to win the division. Like the Mets, this team constantly seems willing to give up the division to the Cubs, and like the Braves and Phillies, the Cubs refuse to take it. With the Cubs now minus Soriano, expect the Brew Crew to pull it out. It does my heart good to see two things about the defending World Series Champion Cardinals, though – 1) good for Rick Ankiel, he deserves it, and 2) good for the organization to miss the playoffs, LaRussa, So Taguchi, Yadier Molina, and the rest of the crew deserve it.
NL West (April) – Los Angeles, San Diego, Arizona, Colorado, San Francisco
NL West (August) – San Diego, Arizona, Los Angeles, Colorado, San Francisco
Where has the Dodgers’ O gone? My preseason division winner will rebound to pass Colorado, who despite having a good season seems bound to lose more than win down the stretch, but without a drastic offensive improvement, LA can forget about the playoffs. Meanwhile, what in the world was Bruce Bochy thinking? “Hmm… let me leave a two-time defending division champ to go to a team who couldn’t win the rec league at the local nursing home and put up with Barroid all season – yeah, THAT sounds like career advancement.” All the Padres have done is not missed a beat, and I think they’ll pass Arizona down the stretch because of their postseason experience. Don’t cry for the D’backs, though – they’ll still be in the post season as the NL Wild Card, and with all due respect to Ned Yost, you can hand Bob Melvin that Manager of the Year trophy at your earliest convenience.
ALDS – Boston over LA Angels, Detroit over NY Yankees
NLDS – NY Mets over Arizona; San Diego over Milwaukee
ALCS – Boston over Detroit
NLCS – San Diego over NY Mets
World Series – Boston over San Diego
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)