On College Football 2008

And we’re back. College football kicked off last night with some boring games, as usual. With apologies to South Carolina and what’s left of Miami football, no one who played on opening Thursday has much of a chance of reaching the BCS. Let’s take a look ahead and preview the teams who do.

SEC

As usual, the SEC is the premier conference in college football. South Carolina, as noted above, isn’t a serious BCS contender, but that’s mostly because Florida and Georgia are both in the same division (Tennessee has the same problem). Those two are stacked.

Georgia brings back 17 starters from a team that won seven straight to end last year. Florida has 16 back, including Heisman winner Tebow. Aside from Tebow, what gives the Gators the edge is that Georgia’s schedule is absolutely brutal. The Jacksonville game against Florida counts as a home game this year, meaning they only have three SEC true home games. They get LSU, Auburn and Alabama, the good half of the SEC West. They even play at Arizona State, the best Pac 10 team outside of USC. In addition to getting beat up in general, the at LSU game is right before the Florida showdown, while Florida will have had three weeks to prepare after a bye and home Kentucky.

Auburn and LSU appear to be the class of the other half, and like Florida, Auburn has the kinder schedule. LSU travels to Auburn, as well as drawing Florida/SC/Georgia from the East, in three straight weeks no less. Auburn does have to play Georgia and Tennessee, but both at home. A sleeper team is Alabama, who lost six games last year by a TD or less each. Of course, they play at Georgia, Tennessee and LSU. They do have a bye before hosting Auburn in the final game of the season, though. What a brutal league.

Pick: Florida over Auburn

At-large BCS: Georgia

Big East

In contrast, here’s a soft conference. West Virginia still has Pat White and all five of his starting linemen, so they’ll put up points, but they lost seven defensive starters and their head coach, so they shouldn’t really be a national championship contender. On the other hand, who’s going to beat them?

The list pretty much starts and ends with the teams that managed it last year. South Florida was in the national title picture last year before dropping three straight close ones, and they have 17 returning starters. But they got exposed by Oregon in the Sun Bowl, and besides, they’re a warm weather team that has to travel to Morgantown in December. Probably won’t end well. Pitt has a veteran team and a home date. Whether they pull that upset or not, they’ll almost certainly have a few losses by then, so it won’t decide the conference.

Pick: West Virginia

ACC

If Tommy Bowden and Clemson don’t win the ACC this year, it will probably never happen. They have the talent, the experience, and almost no competition. Florida State has been in disarray for years. Boston College graduated all their key players. Wake Forest lost to Clemson by 34 last year, and the Deacs have less offensive firepower than ever. Even Virginia Tech is reloading after losing 5 NFL quality defenders, their RB and every major pass receiver. The Tigers two toughest games should be the bookends against SEC middleweights Alabama and South Carolina, and that’s just sad.

Pick: Clemson over Virginia Tech

Big Ten

Third time’s the charm or strike three for Ohio State. The national runners-up bring back 19 starters, including possibly the best player in college football, MLB James Laurinaitis. Not afraid to schedule big early games, the Buckeyes have a September 13 trip to USC.

But they won’t have it all their own way in conference either. Wisconsin, Penn State and Illinois are all veteran teams with plenty of talent. The Badgers are dangerous since they play all of the other three at home. The Nittany Lions are dangerous because they have every starting lineman back on both sides of the ball and have a ridiculous amount of speed on offense. Illinois proved they’re dangerous by beating all three of the others last year. They probably won’t repeat that, but all of them—and Missouri in week 1—had better watch out.

Pick: Ohio State

At-large BCS: Wisconsin

Big 12

The Big 12 has two teams coming off Top 10 finishes and New Year’s Day bowl wins—and not only are they both from the North division, but they’re Missouri and Kansas. That’s just weird. Given that both teams are bringing back their star QBs and most of their defense, they could do it again.

At least Oklahoma and Texas have the South down, like usual, right? Maybe not. They have plenty of talent, but both are breaking in inexperienced defenses, including three new starters in the secondary. That leaves them open to Texas Tech, who brings back ten starters from the offense that dropped 77 combined points on those two. They also have eight starters from a defense that has had four straight solid years, after accounting for how many plays a Texas Tech game tends to have. If Sam Bradford has any issues transitioning from freshman surprise to expected star, as many young QBs do, and Texas stumbles against a difficult schedule that includes both strong North teams, a split against the big two might send Texas Tech into the conference title game. Which would be weird.

Pick: Texas Tech over Missouri

At-large BCS: Oklahoma

Pac 10

USC is the best team in the conference, as always, but they’re not that great for USC. They have issues at both QB and O-line, which is a dangerous combination, and while they only lost four starters on D, three of those guys were NFL first-rounders and the other went in the second. They get all their toughest games at home, but they probably aren’t going to be up for Ohio State in their second game.

Arizona State is the only threat. They had a lot of good wins last year, and only lost to USC, Oregon with Dixon, and Texas. 13 starters return, including most of the stars. They’ll be tested in the second quarter of the season, playing Georgia at home before traveling to Cal and USC. The other conference contenders have major flaws. California lost most of its offensive firepower, and Oregon never really looked good without Dixon. Everyone else seems a year away.

Pick: USC

At-large BCS: Arizona State

Other Contenders:

Mt. West

Utah gets an opening week shot at a presumably still disorganized Michigan, which could become one of those wins that feels more impressive as the season goes on. If they pull that out, they have a legitimate chance to win out, as they will get both TCU and BYU at home. It’s a stretch, and the dream could be over in August. But it’s possible.

WAC

Boise State? They’ve got the new QB new O-line problem, so the odds of them running the table are pretty slim. Fresno State is a little more exciting, with ten offensive starters returning, no bad losses last year, and an early home game against Wisconsin off a bye week to get themselves onto the map. I don’t think they’ll beat Wisconsin, but they are probably the best team outside the Big Six conferences.

C-USA

Memphis? Oh wait, wrong sport.

MAC

No.

Sun Belt

This is impossible.

Notre Dame

They’re probably good enough to make some bowl this year, but not one of the good ones.

Final Picks

It’s going to be another tough season for a team to go undefeated. West Virginia and Clemson have the weakest conferences, but neither of them are really all that good, and further they don’t have the sort of passing attack to come from behind if they get into trouble. The Big 12 is deep enough to probably get at least one loss out of everybody, and the SEC certainly is. USC lost to Stanford last year, so their seeming invulnerability is out. Besides, Ohio State should be favored over them. The Buckeyes have the best chance at an unbeaten year and should reach the national title game…where an SEC team will be waiting.

BCS Champ: Florida over Ohio State

Orange: Oklahoma over Clemson

Sugar: Georgia over West Virginia

Fiesta: Texas Tech over Arizona State

Rose: USC over Wisconsin

Mike, On Predicting the Playoffs (NFL)

The past four columns have previewed each of the eight divisions, and now it’s time to look at how the playoffs will shake out. First, a recap of my division picks.

AFC

North: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland

South: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston

East: New England, New York, Buffalo, Miami

West: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland

NFC

North: Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota

South: New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta

East: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York

West: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis

AFC Playoffs

I think Denver and Cincinnati will join the four division winners in the postseason. The critical game will be October 21, as I wrote in the East preview, as the Jets travel to Cincinnati, a game I think the Bengals will ultimately win and allow them the tiebraker over the Jets. Denver should cruise to somewhere between 10-12 wins, easily enough for the 5 seed. The playoffs will then shake out as follows:

5) Denver over 4) Baltimore

3) Indianapolis over 6) Cincinnati

1) New England over Denver

2) San Diego over Indianapolis

New England over San Diego

Face it, the Pats don’t lose at home in January. It simply doesn’t happen, and since I see them as a 14-2 team who will win in Week 2 over San Diego, they will have the tiebraker and home field throughout the playoffs. The Chargers will dethrone the former champs because the Colts D won’t be able to stop Tomlinson, but San Diego won’t have enough to go into Foxboro and escape with a win.

NFC Playoffs

The five givens for the playoffs are the four division winners and the second place team in the east. If either Dallas or Philadelphia misses the playoffs, I’ll be shocked. The final team is a sheer toss up. Green Bay, San Francisco, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and even Detroit could all make a push for that 6 seed. My heart says to go with Brett Favre, but my head says one of the South teams. Expect three or four teams to have a shot at the playoffs in the final week, but for me, I just can’t pick against the greatest franchise in football. Thus, the January results:

4) New Orleans over 5) Philadelphia

3) Dallas over 6) Green Bay

1) Seattle over New Orleans

2) Chicago over Dallas

Seattle over Chicago

So I’m uncreative and picked no upsets here. So what? Home field is crucial for football, especially since all six of these teams have very good home crowds and play well at home. Similarly to New England, I don’t think anyone can win on the road against either the Seahawks or Bears, and since Rex Grossman is prominently involved in this debate, Seattle gets the 1 seed and wins the NFC Championship at home.

Super Bowl

The nice part about my preview is that you don’t have two weeks worth of media coverage before the actual game. I just bring it to you straight up.

Seahawks 23, Patriots 21

Adam Vinatieri’s in Indianapolis. Patrick will finally have some company in his sorrow of “wide right” – NE’s last second field goal sails just outside the left goalpost, and the Seahawks win the first NFL title for the city of Seattle. And the best part about the whole thing – Bill Belichick’s cameraman will have the whole thing on tape from the Patriots sideline to replay over and over the entire offseason.

Mike, On the West Divisions (NFL)

Ok, so these are a little late. I promise that nothing that happened in the season altered these predictions in any way, as I had most of it written prior to the games being played. I just never sent it to Patrick, so they’re getting up a little late [Ed. note: and since they were already late, I did not hurry in posting them]. Either way, here we go with the final two divisions.

AFC West

This division will compete with the AFC East for the title of biggest top heavy/bottom heavy division. Like their eastern counterpart, this division has two very talented, capable teams and two teams who will compete for next year’s number 1 overall pick. The cream is clearly San Diego, who has assembled, in my opinion, a more talented team than anyone else in football, including the Patriots. Tomlinson is equal to Peyton Manning as the best player in the game, and the Charges D is top 5. The question mark is Norv Turner, who had a talented team in the past with the Redskins and never lived up to expectations. This is a 14-2 team, however, and I would be surprised if they didn’t win at least another 13 this year [Ed. note: This paragraph is proof he wrote this before the season started].

The challenger to SD will be Denver, who has one key element no other team has – offseason tragedy. The death of Darrent Williams is something that will unite this Broncos team, and Mike Shanahan will use it to the utmost in keeping his team focused and driven for 17 weeks. The running game should be solid with Travis Henry now in the backfield, and Invesco Field is right up there with the best as far as home field advantages are concerned (which will be a later column, in fact). The key for Denver is obviously the maturity of second year QB Jay Cutler, who will be expected to learn from a rough finish last season and guide this team into the postseason.

Kansas City is possibly the most one-dimensional football team going. Damon Huard at QB for a full season is just asking for trouble, Larry Johnson is pretty overworked already, and Herm is not the best game manager in the world. Yes, Arrowhead provides the Chiefs with a distinct homefield advantage, but they have a difficult schedule and two extremely talented teams in their own division that they simply won’t be able to beat. Look for a tough season from KC until they can find a QB capable of taking some pressure off the running game.

And then there’s Oakland, who, while being much improved over last season, will still be the joke of the AFC. There is no running attack for the Raiders, and Daunte Culpepper, while better than Aaron Brooks, will be the subject of a boatload of blitzes all season because no one will respect Oakland’s ability to run the ball. Atlanta will most likely have the top pick next season, but with a very deep running back class available in the upcoming draft, look for JaMarcus Russell to have Darren McFadden, Mike Hart, or Steve Slaton lining up in the backfield with him next year.

Pick: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland

NFC West

The trendy “sleeper” pick for the entire NFL is the San Francisco 49’ers, which, by virtue of the definition of “sleeper,” makes them NOT a sleeper. Sure, they have a very talented running back and quarterback, but it’s still a young and extremely unproven team. They surged late last year when there was very little pressure on them, but with expectations heaped high at the start of this season, I’m not sold that they’ll be able to handle it. This is a team that’s one year away from reclaiming their throne atop the NFC West, but expect them to struggle to reach .500 this season.

While one former power is on its way up, another is clearly on its way down. Marc Bulger has never been an outstanding QB, and as Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt continue to age, Bulger and the Rams will have to rely more on Steven Jackson and will become less of the “Greatest Show on Turf” that built the reputation of Saint Louis at the start of the decade. The defense is suspect, and they seem to have some sort of mental block when it comes to beating the Seahawks. Add it all up and this team is primed for a 6-10 season.

Speaking of the Seahawks, they bucked the trend last season of the Super Bowl loss hangover and were within one made field goal at the end of regulation of making their second consecutive NFC Championship Game. People seem to forget how close they came to beating the Bears in that game. Shaun Alexander is still as talented a running back as you’ll find outside of LDT, and Matt Hasselback knows how to limit costly mistakes and give this team a chance to win. Combine that talent with Mike Holmgren’s ability to simply win football games (one of only two coaches ever to win 75 games with two teams) and it should be a fourth straight division crown in the Pacific Northwest.

Finally, perhaps the most pathetic franchise in all of sports – the Arizona Cardinals. Sure, the Lions are awful, but they’ve had Hall of Famers and even NFL Championships way back when. But go through the list of bad sports franchise – Royals, Knicks, Warriors, Coyotes, Pirates, LA Kings – and they’ve all had some sort of success within the last 20 years. The only other competition for worst professional sports franchise is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and they have a built-in excuse of only having existed since 1997. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have no excuse. They have what should be an electric offense and a somewhat respectable defense, and finally two guys in head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant coach Russ Grimm who know what it takes to win. Even with all that, I can’t put this team any higher than 6-10… oh, why not, 7-9 and ahead of the Rams.

Pick: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis

On LSU and the Nittany Tide

Man, Kyle Wright is really making me look great. As I write this, he is in the middle of leading Miami to a complete destruction of Texas A&M, which means one of four things. Either they’re a completely different team with Wright, A&M is very overrated, UM should never leave the Orange Bowl, or else Oklahoma really is that terrifying. Probably some of everything.

In fact, since Georgia Tech’s eye-opening demolition of Notre Dame turned out not to be such a big deal after all, plus they got dominated by BC, and Virginia Tech hasn’t turned in a great performance yet, Miami might be the new favorite in the ACC Coastal. Maybe I should have made that the #3 game this week. Oh well.

1. #12 South Carolina at #2 LSU. This game could be closer than people think. Since he arrived in 2005, this is the season Spurrier expected to compete. His team’s talent and experience level has improved every year; this year’s edition boasts ten of the same defensive starters that held opponents under 19 ppg, and already won at Georgia.

Furthermore, since the Ol’ Ball Coach came to SC, he’s played four games against top 10 opponents. He hasn’t won one yet, but the loss margin has been two, seven, seven and one. Spurrier gets his teams ready to play in big games, and at 3-0 and having made the claim his team is ready to contend for the SEC title, this is his biggest yet.

That said, LSU has looked unstoppable in every aspect.

2. #10 Penn State at Michigan. Michigan’s season may have been considered over as soon as they lost to Apppalachian State, but now their focus has to be on their zero in the conference loss column. And as ESPN is eager to tell you, Michigan has eight straight wins against PSU, including the Nittany Lions’ only loss of the 2005 season last time they visited the Big House.

On the other hand, Penn State has more experience, hasn’t given up 34 points to a I-AA team or 600 yards to Oregon, and will have someone better than Mike Hart to try to stop Mike Hart (this would be LB Dan Connor). So there’s a case here too.

Either way, with Ohio State’s D impressing, and over half the conference undefeated, this game is important for both teams’ Big Ten title hopes.

3. #22 Georgia at #16 Alabama. Since my theme is import to the BCS, and Florida and LSU play in the SEC, I thought about putting the Miami game here. But when in doubt, go with GameDay. They are broadcasting from Tuscaloosa, so here we are.

After the win over Arkansas, in which the Crimson Tide managed to be both very impressive and then very lucky, Saban’s team is looking to become a contender ahead of schedule. And they might. They could be favored in all but one of their games from here on out, as they miss both Florida and South Carolina, Auburn has been awful, and they were lucky enough to draw Vanderbilt (already played) and both Mississippi schools on the road. This gives them their four best SEC opponents—Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU—all at home. A win on Saturday, and the Alabama-LSU Saban Bowl gets even bigger.

On the other hand, Georgia’s in the same situation Tennessee was last week. They have talent, but they need a big road win to make up for an early loss. UT lost what amounted to an elimination game—they won’t be relevant for the rest of the season. Will Georgia?

Predictions: I do think Spurrier will outcoach Les Miles, but I don’t think it will be able to make up for the Tigers’ talent level. If Chad Henne were completely healthy, I would consider taking Michigan, but I don’t think they can afford to have him at less than 100%. If Mallett plays, I doubt the game will be close. Fifteen passes and ninety yards will cut it against Notre Dame this year, but more balance is needed against as high-caliber a defense as Penn State’s. In the nightcap, I think Alabama has the edge. Since I mentioned GameDay, I was going to make a joke here about channeling my inner Corso and putting on a mascot head for this one, but after I saw the commercial where he keeps the heads in his hotel bed with him, I was too creeped out.

Picks: LSU, Penn State, Alabama.

PS In case you have never received a classical education, the last part of the title of this article is a Simpsons' reference.

Mike, On the East Divisions (NFL)

After spending the past four years at a college in Ohio, I’ve become used to hearing many gripes about how the media has an East Coast bias, and how Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington run the country when it comes to big time sports. Look, I can’t help that we have bigger (and better) cities with older, more traditional sports teams and loads of disposable income. When you have a city of over 10 million people that has nine major professional sports teams in the four major sports (yes, hockey counts) with four – count ‘em, FOUR full-time sports television stations, then you can have a legitimate complaint. Anyway, my gift to all of you is holding off the East divisions until third. Sure, people on the left coast won’t be happy, but they’re not even awake to watch half these games, so who cares?

Now that that’s off my chest, the previews:

AFC East
It pains me to say that I don’t think my team will make the playoffs this year. If you want one date that could very well determine the final AFC wild card team, circle October 21. The New York Jets will head to Ohio and battle the Cincinnati Bengals. I think these will be the last two teams standing, and the winner here will most likely keep playing past Week 17. The Jets are better with the addition of Thomas Jones, but a second-place schedule could be their undoing (although Tennessee and Kansas City are easier games than Buffalo’s trade off of Jacksonville and Denver). Regardless, this has all the makings of a 9-7 team that will finish seventh overall in the conference.

The Bills, meanwhile, continue to dislike the idea of having good running backs on their teams. With McGahee gone to Baltimore, you might not find a happier Jets fan than me. Losman, however, appears to have turned a bit of a corner, and Lee Evans will always give opposing secondaries fits. If Buffalo wants to win, they’ll have to do it with defense and special teams, winning the turnover battles and consistently giving their offense, who won’t run the ball well, good field position. They will play on Monday Night Football for the first time since 2001, though, so at least there’s one positive to this season.

I sincerely hope Ted Ginn, Jr. has a good ROI, because Miami passed up a future franchise QB for a guy who runs really fast… and that’s about it. He’s never been a great route runner, and I think Ginn is closer to Dante Hall than Michael Irvin as far as playmaking abilities are concerned. You just don’t take a special teamer with the number 9 overall pick. This will severely hurt the Dolphins, Trent Green at QB or not, and they’ll finish the season looking up at three teams once again this year.

Oh, and I almost forgot – the Patriots are good. Really good. Really really good. Really really really… ok, you get the point. Actually, the Pats are vulnerable as the season begins because of Rodney Harrison’s admission to using HGH, which will sideline him 4 games. This comes on the heels of placing Richard Seymour on the PUP list, costing him at least the first 6 games. If you’re going to beat NE, you better do it before Columbus Day. After that, it’s the postseason express, taking all ticketed passengers (and bandwagoners) straight to January.

Pick: New England, New York, Buffalo, Miami

NFC East
I like to call this division “half-and-half.” There are two teams that could win the entire NFC, and there are two teams with an outside shot at the top overall pick come April. The losers first, and what better place to begin than the home of football’s most famous “retiree” (read: quitter) – New York. Yes, the Giants will be awful. The only reason the G-men were successful last year is that Tiki Barber ran through defenses like water through a sieve. When he stopped caring and announced his retirement midway through the season, the team went south, not because of the distraction but because Tiki wasn’t caring and producing like normal, so the pressure shifted to Eli Manning. This year? No Tiki at all. If you’d like to see the stereotypical “deer-in-headlights” look, check out Eli around Week 10.

Competing with the Giants for the “ultimate sucky NFC East football team” title this season – your 2007 Washington Redskins! Recently, one esteemed football publication commented that the Redskins have possibly the best two safeties in the league. That’s fantastic news, and it’ll be even better news when they find 20 other players to play along side them. Seriously though, this is an old football team offensively outside of Jason Campbell, they have very little O-line depth, and the front seven gets no pass rush, making the secondary vulnerable. Tough to win with that recipe.

Philadelphia’s won four of the last five division titles, and everyone seems to think they can do it again. The problem is the health (and also relative incompetence at times) of Donovan McNabb. Word is that it takes at least a full year, maybe more like 18 months, to recover the injury Donovan sustained last November. With no Jeff Garcia, the Eagles are pinning their hopes to what is quite frankly an overrated QB. Westbrook is a legitimate stud, but if they’re going to insist on throwing him the ball instead of handing it to him, they could wind up on the road come playoff time.

Dallas will suffer not having Bill Parcells on the sidelines. Every other team that’s watched Bill walk away has, so why should Dallas be different? The only key here is Tony Romo. If he recovers mentally from the dropped snap in Seattle last winter, this will be the team to beat in the East. If he’s shaky, new coach Wade Phillips might have some interesting decisions to make under a very large microscope named Jerry Jones. Texas takes their football seriously, and with large expectations, the Cowboys – Romo and Phillips in particular – will be expected to produce winning results.

Pick: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York

Mike, On Predicting College Football

Football is back in a big way once again, and as has been a tradition, both here and on my radio program, when a sport starts, I make predictions and tell you who will do what. Most of the time, I’m fairly accurate, so as another season of college football begins on Thursday, it’s time to take a look into the crystal ball. We’ll go in reverse order picking the winner of every conference, and then outline who will be playing in the BCS games.

Conference USA
This conference is slowly becoming a one team conference in both of the moneymaking sports. Memphis is obviously the dominant basketball power, and Southern Miss is making a push to assume the same position in football. They are the defending champs, and it doesn’t look like they’re all that eager to give up that title. Houston lost Kolb to the draft, and no one else really came close to touching the Golden Eagles last year. Because of a weak conference slate, Southern Miss will travel to both Tennessee and Boise State in September this year, which should toughen them up for conference play, despite the fact that I think they’ll lose both.
Biggest Game: Oct 28, Central Florida @ Southern Miss
Champ Southern Miss

Mid-American
This conference was rated above only the Sun Belt (which I’m not previewing because it’s not really a conference) last season. So how did they respond? By adding Temple! The only reason Temple even won a game last year is because they scheduled Duke, who has now lost 20 consecutive games. The rest of the conference is average at best. Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Kent State, and Akron all have decent pieces in place, but I don’t see anyone in this conference that will be able to pull a big-time upset. If you push me to name a winner, I have to take Central Michigan because of their recent success and the return of Dan Lefevour, a personal favorite of my former radio show partner Chris Phelan, at quarterback. Also, make sure you tune in on September 8. If you thought Temple and Duke was fun, wait until you see Buffalo @ Temple. WaHoo!
Biggest Game: Sept 22, Kent State @ Akron
Champ: Central Michigan

Mountain West
Like Conference USA, this is starting to get a bit repetitive. Outside of Utah’s undefeated season under Alex Smith, BYU and TCU appear to be the only two teams capable of winning year in and year out. TCU has a great recruiting base and always seems to be able to run the ball well (think LaDanian Tomlinson). BYU lost John Beck, just as Houston lost Kolb, so the balance of power might shift back towards the Horned Frogs this year. Hopefully someone will come up and surprise this year to make the race interesting, but outside of Colorado State or Wyoming, I don’t see that happening. It’s a two horse race, and the game between the two will decide it all.
Biggest Game: Nov 8, TCU @ BYU
Champ: TCU

Western Athletic
If you’re looking for a non-BCS team to crash the party this year, once again the WAC has the best possible options. In fact, I think that this conference could potentially still have two undefeated teams after the third Saturday in November. Colt Brennan is simply phenomenal, and he has a great receiving corps back as well. Everyone hates making the trip to Hawaii, and their road games – La Tech, UNLV, Idaho, SJ St, and Nevada – don’t exactly scare anyone. Meanwhile, the blue SmurfTurf boys will be back at it once again, looking to continue the longest winning streak in Major College Football. Don’t think they can’t do it again – Ian Johnson is very good, and very few teams go to Boise and even keep it close, let alone win. Boise State does have a trip to Washington and a home date with Southern Miss in September, but two wins there sets up the winner-take-all showdown in Honolulu on November 23.
Biggest Game: Nov 23, Boise State @ Hawaii
Champ: Hawaii

Independents
Ok, so maybe that should read “Notre Dame,” but there’s still no better game in all of college football, for my money, than Army-Navy. That said, it appears Notre Dame will once again win the Commander-in-Chief trophy as the winner of the service academy series, which is good, because they might be the only games ND wins. They have a real possibility of starting 0-3, with a home game against Georgia Tech and road dates with Penn State and Michigan. And this year, you can’t even count on Michigan State falling apart now that John L. Smith is gone. Follow that with the alphabet soup of UCLA, BC, and USC, and I don’t see the golden domers in a bowl game this season. I guess it’s good that the last four games are Navy, Air Force, Duke, and Stanford. At least they might win four games this year.
Biggest Game: Dec 1, Navy vs. Army in Baltimore
Champ: Navy

Atlantic Coast
For the third consecutive year, this will be the worst BCS conference. I bet they’re glad they raided the Big East for their “good” football teams. Oops. The other intriguing storyline is that NC State and Boston College seem to be the front runners in the ACC Atlantic, and Tom O’Brien left the latter to coach the former in the offseason. While they will assume the spotlight, however, the old man down in Tallahassee will assemble the real champ, provided, of course, that Drew Weatherford can simply not make mistakes. I like Miami and Virginia Tech to rebound from tough seasons and compete for the Coastal championship, but in a fairly even conference with no clear favorite, seven or eight teams have a shot to win it. And maybe – just maybe – Duke might win a game… nah.
Biggest Game: Nov 17, Miami @ Virginia Tech
Champ: Florida State

Big 12
There really is no reason for two divisions in this conference. Just make it one big division and have the top two teams play. At least the championship game would be interesting. As it is, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech will beat each other up for the right to destroy Nebraska in the conference championship game. Every game between those four teams will be exciting and hotly-contested, and it’s quite possible that Nebraska will actually have a better conference record than whoever emerges from the South. Don’t let that fool you, however – the South team will be better and will win the Big 12 Championship. The only question is which of the four teams it will be. Somehow, Texas A&M always loses a game they should win, and Texas Tech simply doesn’t have enough talent to win all three of those games without any other stumbles, so it comes down to the Red River Shootout, and Oklahoma is due. That said, I’ll take Texas.
Biggest Game: Oct 6, Oklahoma vs. Texas in Dallas
Champ: Texas

Big East
What was a three horse league last year will once again be a three horse league this year. The same three schools – Rutgers, West Virginia, and Louisville – all beat each other last year, and this year will all look to redeem themselves by repaying those losses at home. The only three games that matter this season are Rutgers @ Louisville, West Virginia @ Rutgers, and Louisville @ West Virginia. It’s the last one that will really matter, because I think Rutgers, while they will still be good, will lose both of their two marquee games. With Steve Slaton and Pat White returning and the game in Morgantown, Steve Kragthorpe will be unable to return Louisville to the top of the Big East. The Cardinals could still easily pull off an 11-1 record, which might just be good enough for the BCS even without the automatic bid.
Biggest Game: Nov 8, Louisville @ West Virginia
Champ: West Virginia

Southeastern
The debate continues to rage – is the SEC better than the Big Ten? The answer is no. Neither conference is better than the other. Despite the BCS Championship Game last year, the top of the Big Ten is better than the top of the SEC. What the SEC does have, however, is depth. There are ten teams that have a shot at a bowl game this year, which is everyone in the conference that doesn’t play in the state of Mississippi. Alabama will be better, as will South Carolina, Georgia, and Vanderbilt. Kentucky has possibly the best player in the conference in Andre Woodson, and Florida is the defending national champion. Auburn and LSU have stellar defense each and every year, which is crucial in college football, and some even seem to the think that with JaMarcus Russell gone, LSU’s offense will be better, a sentiment I echo. All of these teams will fall just short, however, of the Volunteers in Rocky Top. Tennessee has two very difficult road games early on – California and Florida – but the rest of the schedule is extremely favorable, with Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas all at home and the terrible Tigers – both LSU and Auburn – off the schedule entirely. Even with one early loss, the conference is balanced enough for Tennessee to win the East and the conference championship.
Biggest Game: Sept 15, Tennessee @ Florida; Oct 20, Auburn @ LSU
Champ: Tennessee

Pacific 10
I could probably rename this conference the Pac-9 plus 1, because that’s pretty much what it is. Sure, USC has a pretty brutal schedule, with road games against Notre Dame and Nebraska to go along with their nine conference games, but the Trojans should win both of those games. This program is simply too deep and too good. The biggest trap for them is the road game against Arizona State and Dennis Erickson sandwiched between the trip to California and the rivalry (read: revenge) game against UCLA at the end of the season. Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, and Washington should all have decent teams and compete for bowl bids, but the race this year is for third behind USC and California. I don’t see another BCS team out of here unless USC is upset somewhere along the line, so the Rose Bowl will have to find another team.
Biggest Game: Nov 10, USC @ California
Champ: USC

Big Ten
Saving the best for last, the Big Ten should be a four team race this season, with Michigan as the odds-on favorite. Wisconsin has P.J. Hill back, but with the graduation of quarterback John Stocco, the leadership void might be too big to fill in one season. Penn State has an excellent defense, as always, with Justin King and Anthony Scirrotto leading the way, but questions still abound about Anthony Morrelli at QB and who will replace Tony Hunt. Ohio State is in a similar position, except with even more offensive pieces to replace. Meanwhile, Michigan has every major offensive weapon back, as QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, and OT Jake Long all opted to return for their senior years. This is a program that has gone 0-6 combined between Ohio State and bowl games, including a 32-18 drubbing against USC last year. With a favorable schedule – Notre Dame, PSU, and OSU all at home and only 4 road games – expect Michigan to be atop the conference when November ends. Speaking of schedules, the trip to Ann Arbor is the only real test for Penn State, as they get Wisconsin, ND, and OSU at home as well, so two bids to the BCS is highly likely for the Big Ten.
Biggest Game: Sept 22, Penn State @ Michigan
Champ: Michigan

BCS BOWLS
Rose: Oklahoma vs. Penn State
Sugar: Tennessee vs. Louisville
Orange: Florida State vs. West Virginia
Fiesta: Texas vs. LSU
Champ: USC vs. Michigan

Remember that 0-6 record for Michigan against Ohio State and in bowls? Well they’ll beat Ohio State, but you can make it 1-7 – USC is simply too good. Michigan will keep it closer than last year, but I see a 35-31 title win for the Trojans, the new college football dynasty.

Mike, On His Preseason Predictions (MLB)

Every year around this time, I like to step away from the current baseball season and look back at the predictions I made in April, then revise and adjust as I see fit for the stretch run. Like Coate with his statistics and mathematical formulas, I absolutely love making predictions and watching to see how they turn out, plus mine requires a lot less critical thinking. So, without further ado, let’s look back at how I’ve done so far.

AL East (April) – New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay
AL East (August) – New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay
I’m not changing a thing with this division. Everyone I talked to wanted me to count out the Yankees when they were double digits back, and I refused. This is a team that has four guaranteed Hall-of-Famers (Jeter, Clemens, Rivera, and Rodriguez) as well as three borderline (Pettite, Mussina, and, believe it or not, Posada), an owner with no soul and an unending cash flow, and a manager that knows what he’s doing. Why would I disregard this team? Boston’s been good, yes, and their pitching IS better than the Yankees, but J.D. Drew has been a huge disappointment (which I think everyone but Theo Epstein knew would happen), Ramirez and Ortiz are off of their career paces, Varitek looks old, and Gagne’s been a mess since he was acquired. Oh, and did I mention this is the Yankees and Red Sox? Yeah, New York wins.

AL Central (April) – Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota, Kansas City
AL Central (August) – Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, Kansas City, Chicago
Ok, so I missed on the White Sox bouncing back. Oops. I did see the Indians struggling more than most people expected, simply because they’re still young and, for the most part, lack any postseason experience. That’s the advantage Detroit will use to win the division. Also, I predicted that the AL East would be too bad and the AL Central would be too good for the Wild Card to come from the Central. I wasn’t totally accurate on that, but even if the Yankees catch Boston, there’s no way both Cleveland AND Detroit do the same. Thus, it’s two from the AL East and only the Tigers from the Central. Meanwhile, the Royals had back-to-back months of over .500 baseball. They will catch the Sox before the season ends.

AL West (April) – Los Angeles, Seattle, Oakland, Texas
AL West (August) – Los Angeles, Seattle, Oakland, Texas
I like Seattle, I really do. I would love to see them pass the Angels, just to change up the postseason field a little. I just don’t think the pitching is there for the stretch run. Granted, LA is awful offensively, but September and October are pitching months, and the Angels still have, in my opinion, the nastiest closer in baseball in K-Rod. He showed LA’s superiority in the All-Star game where he had to clean up J.J. Putz’s mess in the ninth, and Putz pitches for – you guessed it – Seattle. Meanwhile, I called Oakland’s falling off after losing Zito and failing to add any sort of significant bat to an already weak lineup, but I definitely didn’t see Texas being this bad. Either way, last place is last place. Go me.

NL East (April) – New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Florida, Washington
NL East (August) – New York, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Florida, Washington
Yes, the Mets have struggled this year. They’re not the same team that they were last season. Still, despite the poor performances recently, neither of the chasers – Philly and Hotlanta – have managed to make any ground. These teams are matching each other stumble for stumble. Both the Mets and Braves are 5-5 in their last 10, and Philly’s only one better at 6-4. The Phils still have no discernable pitching after Hamels, while the Braves, despite good additions at the trading deadline, continue to play to the level of their competition. Meanwhile, the last 14 games for the Mets are against Florida and Washington, with a makeup against the Cardinals thrown in. If they’re still in first after September 16, you can forget about catching them.

NL Central (April) – Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Chicago, Houston, Pittsburgh
NL Central (August) – Milwaukee, Chicago, Saint Louis, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
Joining the White Sox as my worst pick of the year, ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Cincinnati Reds. I honestly thought the pitching would be better than it’s been, and in a weak division, I expected them to compete. However, I would like to introduce myself to Dane Cook as someone who DID see the Milwaukee Brewers coming. Young and talented, with veteran pitching, a good manager, and more than one bona fide future superstar, this team has what it takes to win the division. Like the Mets, this team constantly seems willing to give up the division to the Cubs, and like the Braves and Phillies, the Cubs refuse to take it. With the Cubs now minus Soriano, expect the Brew Crew to pull it out. It does my heart good to see two things about the defending World Series Champion Cardinals, though – 1) good for Rick Ankiel, he deserves it, and 2) good for the organization to miss the playoffs, LaRussa, So Taguchi, Yadier Molina, and the rest of the crew deserve it.

NL West (April) – Los Angeles, San Diego, Arizona, Colorado, San Francisco
NL West (August) – San Diego, Arizona, Los Angeles, Colorado, San Francisco
Where has the Dodgers’ O gone? My preseason division winner will rebound to pass Colorado, who despite having a good season seems bound to lose more than win down the stretch, but without a drastic offensive improvement, LA can forget about the playoffs. Meanwhile, what in the world was Bruce Bochy thinking? “Hmm… let me leave a two-time defending division champ to go to a team who couldn’t win the rec league at the local nursing home and put up with Barroid all season – yeah, THAT sounds like career advancement.” All the Padres have done is not missed a beat, and I think they’ll pass Arizona down the stretch because of their postseason experience. Don’t cry for the D’backs, though – they’ll still be in the post season as the NL Wild Card, and with all due respect to Ned Yost, you can hand Bob Melvin that Manager of the Year trophy at your earliest convenience.

ALDS – Boston over LA Angels, Detroit over NY Yankees
NLDS – NY Mets over Arizona; San Diego over Milwaukee
ALCS – Boston over Detroit
NLCS – San Diego over NY Mets

World Series – Boston over San Diego

On National Champions (NCAAF)

If you are a college football fan, and you want to know if your team has a chance at the national title, there are only two things you need to look for. First, you need a veteran, talented defense. Second, you need a returning quarterback to lead your offense. If a running back is hands-down the most important offensive player, that is not a good sign. First, let’s look at how the last six champions fit the profile.

2006 Florida returned six defensive starters off a team that allowed 18.8 points per game, and Chris Leak, who had been starting since his freshman season.

2005 Texas was a perfect fit. They had nine starters returning on a defense that had allowed 17.9 points per game, and they also had Vince Young. They squeezed past Ohio State in the Horseshoe, USC in the Rose Bowl, and crushed everybody in between.

2004 USC returned six starters from a defense that had allowed 18.4 points per game, and Matt Leinart.

2003 LSU returned six defensive starters and Matt Mauck. They navigated the always-brutal SEC with a single loss, and pulled out three close games against Top 15 teams.

2002 Ohio State returned seven defensive starters, who were great, but Clarett was definitely their offensive star. They are a little bit of an exception. However, it is worth pointing out that it was Krenzel who stepped up and saved several late-season games that needed saving.

2001 Miami, led by Ken Dorsey and eight returning defensive starters, pretty much crushed everything in their path. They scored 43 points a game and allowed just ten. Also, if you don’t buy the interference call the next year, they fit again and perfect the system.

The list keeps going with Oklahoma and Huepel, FSU and Weinke, but I think we’re far enough. The theory is pretty sound. Winning the national championship, in football, is about winning the three or four games against teams almost as good as you are. Running teams tend to push around weak teams, and don’t always have a good Plan B when they come across a bigger, faster defensive front that can stack against the run and make them pass. On the other side of the ball, veteran defenses are less likely to fold when the talent and coaching level they play against jumps.

I think a good rule of thumb is that for a qualifying defense, a team must have at least six of eleven starters returning, and have given up less than 20 points per game. The “star quarterback” is a little more subjective. I also expect a team’s talent to have shown in the previous season: I have defined this broadly to mean they were ranked at any point. Now, who fits?

The SEC is lacking a good candidate. LSU and Arkansas have the defenses, but not the QBs, and Tennessee has a quarterback but lost over half the D. Florida lost both—although with just three defensive senior starters and a learning year for Tebow, they’ll be geared back up for 2008. With a blue chip true sophomore quarterback and a young defense, Georgia looks likewise a year away. Auburn almost fits, but Brandon Cox doesn’t really count as a star QB. Also, cruelly, the Tigers have all four of their toughest conference opponents (Florida, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia) on the road. The best fit may actually be South Carolina, with Blake Mitchell and ten defensive starters returning from an outfit that allowed just 18.7 points per game. But since they spent all of last season unranked, I can’t see they have the talent level to emerge. Basically, the SEC goes eight deep without much real separation.

The Big Ten is also short on good fits. Ohio State loses Smith, and Michigan loses the defense. Wisconsin is more tied to RB PJ Hill than ever, since QB Stocco graduated. The Badgers are a perfect example of where running back teams can struggle. Their rush yards during a six-game stretch last season went 287, 12, 209, 307, 208, 241. Which of these games is not like the others? The Michigan game, of course, which ended up being the only one in between Wisconsin and a perfect season. But once the Wolverines had clamped down on the run, Wisconsin didn’t have any answers.

The one Big Ten team who does fit the profile is Penn State. There are signs that Anthony Morelli is going to live up to his considerable potential, and the defense should be very strong for the fourth straight year. With Notre Dame and Michigan in September, we will at least find out quickly.

The Big 12 also has a lone star team. Oklahoma doesn’t have an established quarterback, A&M is intriguing but doesn’t quite fit, and of course the entire North division is a mess, just as it has always been since the decline and fall of the Nebraskan Empire. All of which leaves us with Colt McCoy and the Texas Longhorns. While Colt is healthy, they are exceedingly dangerous, and while their biggest weakness is the secondary, both Oklahoma and Texas A&M are running teams. Barring a sophomore slump for McCoy, Texas has a great shot at running the Big 12.

The ACC has some potential. Miami, Florida State, and Boston College fit the ideal. Kyle Wright and Miami have been huge disappointments for a couple years running now, but this year’s team is reminiscent of Carson Palmer’s 2002 USC Trojans that turned that program back around. FSU is in a similar situation, with Drew Weatherford and Co needing to put together a solid, consistent season. Both squads need to do better with turnovers and close games, and both should. Boston College is the most often overlooked. They have put together three straight three-loss seasons, and this year they bring back all but two starters off a defense that held opponents to under 16 ppg last year. Add in seven offensive starters, including the leading passer, rusher and receiver as well as three senior linemen, BC should do very well. But then, why did Tom O’Brien leave?

Also, Virginia Tech is probably the best team in the conference; they return eight starters on each side of the ball, and their defense will be terrifying. However, with Branden Ore leading the offense from RB, and with iffy Sean Glennon behind center, I don’t think they are a national title contender. Add in solid squads like Clemson, Maryland and Georgia Tech, and the ACC will, like the SEC be a deep, entertaining conference this season.

The Pac-10 basically comes down to USC and that’s it. Shocking. With John David Booty and ten defensive starters, they have to be the national favorite. As a side note, Oregon is close to the ideal, except RB Jonathan Stewart is their star. Either way, with USC around, they’re only a side note.

The Big East is poised to follow up its strong run of last season. Brian Brohm and Louisville are the worthiest contender; West Virginia and Rutgers are all about running. It is very possible, since WVU gets Louisville at home, that the Mountaineers could run the regular season. However, I think they would be in a lot of trouble against their BCS title game opponent.

Outside the BCS, there are as usual no real title candidates.

In rough order, I would put the chances of the teams like this:

Favorite: USC

Contender: Texas
Louisville

Dark Horse: Miami, FL
Boston College
Penn State
Florida State

And, just for fun, I’ll throw in some conference predictions:

SEC: Florida over LSU

Big Ten: Michigan

Big 12: Texas over Nebraska

ACC: VT over BC

P10: USC

Big East: WV

BCS games:

Title: USC over WV

Rose: Michigan over LSU

Orange: Louisville over VT

Fiesta: Texas over Hawaii

Sugar: Florida over Penn St.