Mike, On His Preseason Predictions (MLB)

Every year around this time, I like to step away from the current baseball season and look back at the predictions I made in April, then revise and adjust as I see fit for the stretch run. Like Coate with his statistics and mathematical formulas, I absolutely love making predictions and watching to see how they turn out, plus mine requires a lot less critical thinking. So, without further ado, let’s look back at how I’ve done so far.

AL East (April) – New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay
AL East (August) – New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay
I’m not changing a thing with this division. Everyone I talked to wanted me to count out the Yankees when they were double digits back, and I refused. This is a team that has four guaranteed Hall-of-Famers (Jeter, Clemens, Rivera, and Rodriguez) as well as three borderline (Pettite, Mussina, and, believe it or not, Posada), an owner with no soul and an unending cash flow, and a manager that knows what he’s doing. Why would I disregard this team? Boston’s been good, yes, and their pitching IS better than the Yankees, but J.D. Drew has been a huge disappointment (which I think everyone but Theo Epstein knew would happen), Ramirez and Ortiz are off of their career paces, Varitek looks old, and Gagne’s been a mess since he was acquired. Oh, and did I mention this is the Yankees and Red Sox? Yeah, New York wins.

AL Central (April) – Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota, Kansas City
AL Central (August) – Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, Kansas City, Chicago
Ok, so I missed on the White Sox bouncing back. Oops. I did see the Indians struggling more than most people expected, simply because they’re still young and, for the most part, lack any postseason experience. That’s the advantage Detroit will use to win the division. Also, I predicted that the AL East would be too bad and the AL Central would be too good for the Wild Card to come from the Central. I wasn’t totally accurate on that, but even if the Yankees catch Boston, there’s no way both Cleveland AND Detroit do the same. Thus, it’s two from the AL East and only the Tigers from the Central. Meanwhile, the Royals had back-to-back months of over .500 baseball. They will catch the Sox before the season ends.

AL West (April) – Los Angeles, Seattle, Oakland, Texas
AL West (August) – Los Angeles, Seattle, Oakland, Texas
I like Seattle, I really do. I would love to see them pass the Angels, just to change up the postseason field a little. I just don’t think the pitching is there for the stretch run. Granted, LA is awful offensively, but September and October are pitching months, and the Angels still have, in my opinion, the nastiest closer in baseball in K-Rod. He showed LA’s superiority in the All-Star game where he had to clean up J.J. Putz’s mess in the ninth, and Putz pitches for – you guessed it – Seattle. Meanwhile, I called Oakland’s falling off after losing Zito and failing to add any sort of significant bat to an already weak lineup, but I definitely didn’t see Texas being this bad. Either way, last place is last place. Go me.

NL East (April) – New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Florida, Washington
NL East (August) – New York, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Florida, Washington
Yes, the Mets have struggled this year. They’re not the same team that they were last season. Still, despite the poor performances recently, neither of the chasers – Philly and Hotlanta – have managed to make any ground. These teams are matching each other stumble for stumble. Both the Mets and Braves are 5-5 in their last 10, and Philly’s only one better at 6-4. The Phils still have no discernable pitching after Hamels, while the Braves, despite good additions at the trading deadline, continue to play to the level of their competition. Meanwhile, the last 14 games for the Mets are against Florida and Washington, with a makeup against the Cardinals thrown in. If they’re still in first after September 16, you can forget about catching them.

NL Central (April) – Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Chicago, Houston, Pittsburgh
NL Central (August) – Milwaukee, Chicago, Saint Louis, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
Joining the White Sox as my worst pick of the year, ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Cincinnati Reds. I honestly thought the pitching would be better than it’s been, and in a weak division, I expected them to compete. However, I would like to introduce myself to Dane Cook as someone who DID see the Milwaukee Brewers coming. Young and talented, with veteran pitching, a good manager, and more than one bona fide future superstar, this team has what it takes to win the division. Like the Mets, this team constantly seems willing to give up the division to the Cubs, and like the Braves and Phillies, the Cubs refuse to take it. With the Cubs now minus Soriano, expect the Brew Crew to pull it out. It does my heart good to see two things about the defending World Series Champion Cardinals, though – 1) good for Rick Ankiel, he deserves it, and 2) good for the organization to miss the playoffs, LaRussa, So Taguchi, Yadier Molina, and the rest of the crew deserve it.

NL West (April) – Los Angeles, San Diego, Arizona, Colorado, San Francisco
NL West (August) – San Diego, Arizona, Los Angeles, Colorado, San Francisco
Where has the Dodgers’ O gone? My preseason division winner will rebound to pass Colorado, who despite having a good season seems bound to lose more than win down the stretch, but without a drastic offensive improvement, LA can forget about the playoffs. Meanwhile, what in the world was Bruce Bochy thinking? “Hmm… let me leave a two-time defending division champ to go to a team who couldn’t win the rec league at the local nursing home and put up with Barroid all season – yeah, THAT sounds like career advancement.” All the Padres have done is not missed a beat, and I think they’ll pass Arizona down the stretch because of their postseason experience. Don’t cry for the D’backs, though – they’ll still be in the post season as the NL Wild Card, and with all due respect to Ned Yost, you can hand Bob Melvin that Manager of the Year trophy at your earliest convenience.

ALDS – Boston over LA Angels, Detroit over NY Yankees
NLDS – NY Mets over Arizona; San Diego over Milwaukee
ALCS – Boston over Detroit
NLCS – San Diego over NY Mets

World Series – Boston over San Diego

Mike, On Rooting for A-Rod (MLB)

Editor's Note: This column title begins with the author's name, as will all future guest columns. Of which there will hopefully be many.

I never thought I’d actually get to the point in my life where I’d say this, but I’m rooting for Alex Rodriguez.

Hold on. Before you all chuck rotten vegetables at me, I did not say “New York Yankees.” I refuse to ever root for the bastards of baseball. A-Rod, however, has my full support.

Why?

Because he needs to pass Barry Bonds.

I wrote an article in October of 2005 for this very website that pleaded with Bonds, whom WFAN radio personality Steve Somers refers to simply as “Barroid,” to retire. He was currently at 708 homeruns, and I didn’t want to see him hit 709, much less 715 or 756. Unfortunately, he hit both of those marks, and implied recently that he’s even considering returning for another season after this one because he finds himself less than 100 hits shy of 3,000 for his career. According to Barry Balco, his godfather Willie Mays has always wanted to see Bonds get to that benchmark, even more so than Aaron’s record.

Wake me up when I should care.

Honestly, I’m sick of even talking about this person, but it’s the hot topic in sports, so for my return column, there wasn’t much of a better idea. Here’s the thing: Bonds is a liar. Bonds is a cheat. Bonds is an arrogant, obnoxious individual who cares about no one besides himself. For those reasons, even more than the steroids, I dislike him.

The problem I have is that Bonds was a Hall-of-Famer before he ever used performance enhancing drugs. Look at the numbers he’s amassed: career .298 average, 514 stolen bases, and a .444 OBP. Some of those are a bit inflated because of the ‘roids, but especially with regards to the SB numbers, most are pre-1998, i.e. pre-McGwire and Sosa. Bonds was widely regarded, along with Ken Griffey Jr., as the premier baseball player of his generation. In ’98, however, it was Sosa and McGwire who captivated audiences and garnered the national media attention with the great home run chase, and Bonds couldn’t handle it. Someone told him he could do what those two did, and Barry’s ego being what it is, he went after it.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot of blame to go around with this. Bud Selig and MLB executives for turning a blind eye as the game tried to rebound from the strike, which was partly their fault anyway. The other half of the blame, at least with regards to the strike and disregard for drug testing, goes to Donald Fehr and the Players’ Association. Regardless of that, however, Bonds could still have been just like Cal Ripken Jr. or Tony Gwynn, who were both recently inducted into the Hall, or even like Griffey, who with all the injuries and lack of upper body growth clearly steered clear of the juice. Those guys simply kept their egos in check and relied on their God-given talent to hit a little white ball with a little brown stick. Instead, Barroid found Victor Conte, and the rest, as they say, is history.

So now I root for A-Rod. Griffey sits at 587, but I don’t see him pulling a Bonds and smacking 73 homeruns at age 38, so I think he’s going to fall shy. Alex, however, hit number 500 on the same day Bonds hit 755, leaving him 255 shy of Mr. Large Head (see kids, stay in school and you too can do simple arithmetic). At only 32 years of age, I think it’s a no-brainer to take the over on an A-Rod line of 255 more homeruns in his career. And I really hope it happens, so that all this talk of steroids and asterisks will be unnecessary.

Well, at least until Jose Canseco’s next book.