On Week 1

Like last year, each week I’ll preview the three college football games with the most BCS implications. This doesn’t mean national title game per se, just the BCS picture in general.

In Week 1, there are generally only a few major games, and this year is no exception. A couple undercards of note are Virginia Tech-East Carolina, featuring an ACC contender visiting a C-USA favorite, and Tennessee-UCLA, who are both major conference darkhorses. But here are the big three:

#20 Illinois vs. #6 Missouri, at St. Louis. This was a shootout last year, but between two teams who were unranked at the time. In retrospect, it was one of the best games of the first month of the season. This year, we know that going in. Illinois will have to put pressure on Chase Daniel, who will look to get his Heisman candidacy going against two new safeties.

#24 Alabama vs. #9 Clemson, at Atlanta. This will be strength against strength and weakness against weakness. Alabama’s senior QB John Parker Wilson is up against a completely returning Clemson secondary, and on the other side of the ball Clemson will break in three new linemen against a defense replacing their all-conference DE and a couple of linebackers. If Clemson’s line does hold up, they’ve got a ton of great skill players.

Utah at Michigan. It’s not often a game where both teams are unranked makes the top three, but this one is special. Utah is one of the likeliest BCS crashers, and Michigan is Michigan. Utah is experienced and talented—as in their 44-6 win over UCLA last year. Michigan is installing a new offensive system and lost their four leading tacklers, but they have much more talent. And keep in mind that in the weeks before and after the UCLA game, Utah lost to Air Force and got shut out by UNLV.

Predictions: Missouri’s will be too good for the Illini. Illinois doesn’t have a replacement for Mendenhall, and Chase’s offense is almost impossible to stop. They broke 30 points in 13 of 14 games last year. In the same vein, Clemson has too many weapons for Alabama. Besides, don’t they usually play well early and then blow it at the end? In the third game, Utah will be more ready. Utah’s coach was Meyer’s DC, so it isn’t like his players won’t know how to defend the spread attack. Heck, they probably know it better than the Michigan offense. If this game were in November, Michigan would definitely have the edge. But it’s not.

Picks: Missouri, Clemson, Utah