It’s a good thing I got my gloating in last week, because my latest picks were pretty bad. Although both games were at least close, I lost on favored Alabama and Penn State. Also, I thought South Carolina would give LSU more of a game than they did. Not good.
What we did learn, from both sides, is that the gap between LSU and the rest of the SEC West is indeed very large, considering Alabama and Arkansas both dropped their games.
Also, from Penn State’s loss to a 1-2 team, we learned that the Big Ten might be back down to Ohio State and Michigan. Or pretty close.
Now, this week’s games:
West Virginia at South Florida. Thanks to Louisville’s loss against Syracuse, at home, this game has gotten ten times bigger. West Virginia is clearly the most talented team in the conference, but they drew Rutgers, Cincy and USF on the road, and all look dangerous. Meanwhile, South Florida is undefeated, has beaten a top ten team in each of the last two seasons, and has a favorable schedule. And remember, if they win, it would take two losses for WV to catch them.
Also, as an aside, Louisville’s Brian Brohm is in line to follow in Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn’s footsteps and drop down draft boards for no better reason than his defense can’t get a stop. I can’t wait for the Bills to pass on him.
California at Oregon. Two of the nation’s most explosive offenses meet. Not only will the winner of this game have a shot at USC for the Pac 10 title, but, thanks to the strength of the Pac 10, the winner of this game has an inside track at a BCS at-large bid even if they don’t beat the Trojans. This would be especially big for Oregon, who gets USC and Arizona State at home later and could start legitimately dreaming about a national title if they win.
Michigan State at Wisconsin. Anytime two undefeated Big Ten teams play, it’s a big game. Wisconsin has somehow managed to lose only one game of the 17 Bret Bielema has coached without creating any buzz whatsoever; if they had Michigan helmets, they’d be in the top five right now. Part of the reason is they haven’t managed a statement win against a quality team. Now would be a good time.
Predictions: West Virginia is too fast for USF, plain and simple. That’s all you really need to know. I think Tennessee could have beat Cal if they’d had one or two more good possessions, and Oregon has had a good possession just about every time this season. I think they will win surprisingly easily. Also, I think Wisconsin will take Michigan State, but it won’t be the quite the big win the Badgers are hoping for.
Picks: WV, Oregon, Wisconsin
Friday, September 28, 2007
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Mike, On Predicting the Playoffs (NFL)
The past four columns have previewed each of the eight divisions, and now it’s time to look at how the playoffs will shake out. First, a recap of my division picks.
AFC
North: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
South: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston
East: New England, New York, Buffalo, Miami
West: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
NFC
North: Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota
South: New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta
East: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York
West: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis
AFC Playoffs
I think Denver and Cincinnati will join the four division winners in the postseason. The critical game will be October 21, as I wrote in the East preview, as the Jets travel to Cincinnati, a game I think the Bengals will ultimately win and allow them the tiebraker over the Jets. Denver should cruise to somewhere between 10-12 wins, easily enough for the 5 seed. The playoffs will then shake out as follows:
5) Denver over 4) Baltimore
3) Indianapolis over 6) Cincinnati
1) New England over Denver
2) San Diego over Indianapolis
New England over San Diego
Face it, the Pats don’t lose at home in January. It simply doesn’t happen, and since I see them as a 14-2 team who will win in Week 2 over San Diego, they will have the tiebraker and home field throughout the playoffs. The Chargers will dethrone the former champs because the Colts D won’t be able to stop Tomlinson, but San Diego won’t have enough to go into Foxboro and escape with a win.
NFC Playoffs
The five givens for the playoffs are the four division winners and the second place team in the east. If either Dallas or Philadelphia misses the playoffs, I’ll be shocked. The final team is a sheer toss up. Green Bay, San Francisco, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and even Detroit could all make a push for that 6 seed. My heart says to go with Brett Favre, but my head says one of the South teams. Expect three or four teams to have a shot at the playoffs in the final week, but for me, I just can’t pick against the greatest franchise in football. Thus, the January results:
4) New Orleans over 5) Philadelphia
3) Dallas over 6) Green Bay
1) Seattle over New Orleans
2) Chicago over Dallas
Seattle over Chicago
So I’m uncreative and picked no upsets here. So what? Home field is crucial for football, especially since all six of these teams have very good home crowds and play well at home. Similarly to New England, I don’t think anyone can win on the road against either the Seahawks or Bears, and since Rex Grossman is prominently involved in this debate, Seattle gets the 1 seed and wins the NFC Championship at home.
Super Bowl
The nice part about my preview is that you don’t have two weeks worth of media coverage before the actual game. I just bring it to you straight up.
Seahawks 23, Patriots 21
Adam Vinatieri’s in Indianapolis. Patrick will finally have some company in his sorrow of “wide right” – NE’s last second field goal sails just outside the left goalpost, and the Seahawks win the first NFL title for the city of Seattle. And the best part about the whole thing – Bill Belichick’s cameraman will have the whole thing on tape from the Patriots sideline to replay over and over the entire offseason.
AFC
North: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
South: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston
East: New England, New York, Buffalo, Miami
West: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
NFC
North: Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota
South: New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta
East: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York
West: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis
AFC Playoffs
I think Denver and Cincinnati will join the four division winners in the postseason. The critical game will be October 21, as I wrote in the East preview, as the Jets travel to Cincinnati, a game I think the Bengals will ultimately win and allow them the tiebraker over the Jets. Denver should cruise to somewhere between 10-12 wins, easily enough for the 5 seed. The playoffs will then shake out as follows:
5) Denver over 4) Baltimore
3) Indianapolis over 6) Cincinnati
1) New England over Denver
2) San Diego over Indianapolis
New England over San Diego
Face it, the Pats don’t lose at home in January. It simply doesn’t happen, and since I see them as a 14-2 team who will win in Week 2 over San Diego, they will have the tiebraker and home field throughout the playoffs. The Chargers will dethrone the former champs because the Colts D won’t be able to stop Tomlinson, but San Diego won’t have enough to go into Foxboro and escape with a win.
NFC Playoffs
The five givens for the playoffs are the four division winners and the second place team in the east. If either Dallas or Philadelphia misses the playoffs, I’ll be shocked. The final team is a sheer toss up. Green Bay, San Francisco, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and even Detroit could all make a push for that 6 seed. My heart says to go with Brett Favre, but my head says one of the South teams. Expect three or four teams to have a shot at the playoffs in the final week, but for me, I just can’t pick against the greatest franchise in football. Thus, the January results:
4) New Orleans over 5) Philadelphia
3) Dallas over 6) Green Bay
1) Seattle over New Orleans
2) Chicago over Dallas
Seattle over Chicago
So I’m uncreative and picked no upsets here. So what? Home field is crucial for football, especially since all six of these teams have very good home crowds and play well at home. Similarly to New England, I don’t think anyone can win on the road against either the Seahawks or Bears, and since Rex Grossman is prominently involved in this debate, Seattle gets the 1 seed and wins the NFC Championship at home.
Super Bowl
The nice part about my preview is that you don’t have two weeks worth of media coverage before the actual game. I just bring it to you straight up.
Seahawks 23, Patriots 21
Adam Vinatieri’s in Indianapolis. Patrick will finally have some company in his sorrow of “wide right” – NE’s last second field goal sails just outside the left goalpost, and the Seahawks win the first NFL title for the city of Seattle. And the best part about the whole thing – Bill Belichick’s cameraman will have the whole thing on tape from the Patriots sideline to replay over and over the entire offseason.
Mike, On the West Divisions (NFL)
Ok, so these are a little late. I promise that nothing that happened in the season altered these predictions in any way, as I had most of it written prior to the games being played. I just never sent it to Patrick, so they’re getting up a little late [Ed. note: and since they were already late, I did not hurry in posting them]. Either way, here we go with the final two divisions.
AFC West
This division will compete with the AFC East for the title of biggest top heavy/bottom heavy division. Like their eastern counterpart, this division has two very talented, capable teams and two teams who will compete for next year’s number 1 overall pick. The cream is clearly San Diego, who has assembled, in my opinion, a more talented team than anyone else in football, including the Patriots. Tomlinson is equal to Peyton Manning as the best player in the game, and the Charges D is top 5. The question mark is Norv Turner, who had a talented team in the past with the Redskins and never lived up to expectations. This is a 14-2 team, however, and I would be surprised if they didn’t win at least another 13 this year [Ed. note: This paragraph is proof he wrote this before the season started].
The challenger to SD will be Denver, who has one key element no other team has – offseason tragedy. The death of Darrent Williams is something that will unite this Broncos team, and Mike Shanahan will use it to the utmost in keeping his team focused and driven for 17 weeks. The running game should be solid with Travis Henry now in the backfield, and Invesco Field is right up there with the best as far as home field advantages are concerned (which will be a later column, in fact). The key for Denver is obviously the maturity of second year QB Jay Cutler, who will be expected to learn from a rough finish last season and guide this team into the postseason.
Kansas City is possibly the most one-dimensional football team going. Damon Huard at QB for a full season is just asking for trouble, Larry Johnson is pretty overworked already, and Herm is not the best game manager in the world. Yes, Arrowhead provides the Chiefs with a distinct homefield advantage, but they have a difficult schedule and two extremely talented teams in their own division that they simply won’t be able to beat. Look for a tough season from KC until they can find a QB capable of taking some pressure off the running game.
And then there’s Oakland, who, while being much improved over last season, will still be the joke of the AFC. There is no running attack for the Raiders, and Daunte Culpepper, while better than Aaron Brooks, will be the subject of a boatload of blitzes all season because no one will respect Oakland’s ability to run the ball. Atlanta will most likely have the top pick next season, but with a very deep running back class available in the upcoming draft, look for JaMarcus Russell to have Darren McFadden, Mike Hart, or Steve Slaton lining up in the backfield with him next year.
Pick: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
NFC West
The trendy “sleeper” pick for the entire NFL is the San Francisco 49’ers, which, by virtue of the definition of “sleeper,” makes them NOT a sleeper. Sure, they have a very talented running back and quarterback, but it’s still a young and extremely unproven team. They surged late last year when there was very little pressure on them, but with expectations heaped high at the start of this season, I’m not sold that they’ll be able to handle it. This is a team that’s one year away from reclaiming their throne atop the NFC West, but expect them to struggle to reach .500 this season.
While one former power is on its way up, another is clearly on its way down. Marc Bulger has never been an outstanding QB, and as Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt continue to age, Bulger and the Rams will have to rely more on Steven Jackson and will become less of the “Greatest Show on Turf” that built the reputation of Saint Louis at the start of the decade. The defense is suspect, and they seem to have some sort of mental block when it comes to beating the Seahawks. Add it all up and this team is primed for a 6-10 season.
Speaking of the Seahawks, they bucked the trend last season of the Super Bowl loss hangover and were within one made field goal at the end of regulation of making their second consecutive NFC Championship Game. People seem to forget how close they came to beating the Bears in that game. Shaun Alexander is still as talented a running back as you’ll find outside of LDT, and Matt Hasselback knows how to limit costly mistakes and give this team a chance to win. Combine that talent with Mike Holmgren’s ability to simply win football games (one of only two coaches ever to win 75 games with two teams) and it should be a fourth straight division crown in the Pacific Northwest.
Finally, perhaps the most pathetic franchise in all of sports – the Arizona Cardinals. Sure, the Lions are awful, but they’ve had Hall of Famers and even NFL Championships way back when. But go through the list of bad sports franchise – Royals, Knicks, Warriors, Coyotes, Pirates, LA Kings – and they’ve all had some sort of success within the last 20 years. The only other competition for worst professional sports franchise is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and they have a built-in excuse of only having existed since 1997. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have no excuse. They have what should be an electric offense and a somewhat respectable defense, and finally two guys in head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant coach Russ Grimm who know what it takes to win. Even with all that, I can’t put this team any higher than 6-10… oh, why not, 7-9 and ahead of the Rams.
Pick: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis
AFC West
This division will compete with the AFC East for the title of biggest top heavy/bottom heavy division. Like their eastern counterpart, this division has two very talented, capable teams and two teams who will compete for next year’s number 1 overall pick. The cream is clearly San Diego, who has assembled, in my opinion, a more talented team than anyone else in football, including the Patriots. Tomlinson is equal to Peyton Manning as the best player in the game, and the Charges D is top 5. The question mark is Norv Turner, who had a talented team in the past with the Redskins and never lived up to expectations. This is a 14-2 team, however, and I would be surprised if they didn’t win at least another 13 this year [Ed. note: This paragraph is proof he wrote this before the season started].
The challenger to SD will be Denver, who has one key element no other team has – offseason tragedy. The death of Darrent Williams is something that will unite this Broncos team, and Mike Shanahan will use it to the utmost in keeping his team focused and driven for 17 weeks. The running game should be solid with Travis Henry now in the backfield, and Invesco Field is right up there with the best as far as home field advantages are concerned (which will be a later column, in fact). The key for Denver is obviously the maturity of second year QB Jay Cutler, who will be expected to learn from a rough finish last season and guide this team into the postseason.
Kansas City is possibly the most one-dimensional football team going. Damon Huard at QB for a full season is just asking for trouble, Larry Johnson is pretty overworked already, and Herm is not the best game manager in the world. Yes, Arrowhead provides the Chiefs with a distinct homefield advantage, but they have a difficult schedule and two extremely talented teams in their own division that they simply won’t be able to beat. Look for a tough season from KC until they can find a QB capable of taking some pressure off the running game.
And then there’s Oakland, who, while being much improved over last season, will still be the joke of the AFC. There is no running attack for the Raiders, and Daunte Culpepper, while better than Aaron Brooks, will be the subject of a boatload of blitzes all season because no one will respect Oakland’s ability to run the ball. Atlanta will most likely have the top pick next season, but with a very deep running back class available in the upcoming draft, look for JaMarcus Russell to have Darren McFadden, Mike Hart, or Steve Slaton lining up in the backfield with him next year.
Pick: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
NFC West
The trendy “sleeper” pick for the entire NFL is the San Francisco 49’ers, which, by virtue of the definition of “sleeper,” makes them NOT a sleeper. Sure, they have a very talented running back and quarterback, but it’s still a young and extremely unproven team. They surged late last year when there was very little pressure on them, but with expectations heaped high at the start of this season, I’m not sold that they’ll be able to handle it. This is a team that’s one year away from reclaiming their throne atop the NFC West, but expect them to struggle to reach .500 this season.
While one former power is on its way up, another is clearly on its way down. Marc Bulger has never been an outstanding QB, and as Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt continue to age, Bulger and the Rams will have to rely more on Steven Jackson and will become less of the “Greatest Show on Turf” that built the reputation of Saint Louis at the start of the decade. The defense is suspect, and they seem to have some sort of mental block when it comes to beating the Seahawks. Add it all up and this team is primed for a 6-10 season.
Speaking of the Seahawks, they bucked the trend last season of the Super Bowl loss hangover and were within one made field goal at the end of regulation of making their second consecutive NFC Championship Game. People seem to forget how close they came to beating the Bears in that game. Shaun Alexander is still as talented a running back as you’ll find outside of LDT, and Matt Hasselback knows how to limit costly mistakes and give this team a chance to win. Combine that talent with Mike Holmgren’s ability to simply win football games (one of only two coaches ever to win 75 games with two teams) and it should be a fourth straight division crown in the Pacific Northwest.
Finally, perhaps the most pathetic franchise in all of sports – the Arizona Cardinals. Sure, the Lions are awful, but they’ve had Hall of Famers and even NFL Championships way back when. But go through the list of bad sports franchise – Royals, Knicks, Warriors, Coyotes, Pirates, LA Kings – and they’ve all had some sort of success within the last 20 years. The only other competition for worst professional sports franchise is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and they have a built-in excuse of only having existed since 1997. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have no excuse. They have what should be an electric offense and a somewhat respectable defense, and finally two guys in head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant coach Russ Grimm who know what it takes to win. Even with all that, I can’t put this team any higher than 6-10… oh, why not, 7-9 and ahead of the Rams.
Pick: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis
On LSU and the Nittany Tide
Man, Kyle Wright is really making me look great. As I write this, he is in the middle of leading Miami to a complete destruction of Texas A&M, which means one of four things. Either they’re a completely different team with Wright, A&M is very overrated, UM should never leave the Orange Bowl, or else Oklahoma really is that terrifying. Probably some of everything.
In fact, since Georgia Tech’s eye-opening demolition of Notre Dame turned out not to be such a big deal after all, plus they got dominated by BC, and Virginia Tech hasn’t turned in a great performance yet, Miami might be the new favorite in the ACC Coastal. Maybe I should have made that the #3 game this week. Oh well.
1. #12 South Carolina at #2 LSU. This game could be closer than people think. Since he arrived in 2005, this is the season Spurrier expected to compete. His team’s talent and experience level has improved every year; this year’s edition boasts ten of the same defensive starters that held opponents under 19 ppg, and already won at Georgia.
Furthermore, since the Ol’ Ball Coach came to SC, he’s played four games against top 10 opponents. He hasn’t won one yet, but the loss margin has been two, seven, seven and one. Spurrier gets his teams ready to play in big games, and at 3-0 and having made the claim his team is ready to contend for the SEC title, this is his biggest yet.
That said, LSU has looked unstoppable in every aspect.
2. #10 Penn State at Michigan. Michigan’s season may have been considered over as soon as they lost to Apppalachian State, but now their focus has to be on their zero in the conference loss column. And as ESPN is eager to tell you, Michigan has eight straight wins against PSU, including the Nittany Lions’ only loss of the 2005 season last time they visited the Big House.
On the other hand, Penn State has more experience, hasn’t given up 34 points to a I-AA team or 600 yards to Oregon, and will have someone better than Mike Hart to try to stop Mike Hart (this would be LB Dan Connor). So there’s a case here too.
Either way, with Ohio State’s D impressing, and over half the conference undefeated, this game is important for both teams’ Big Ten title hopes.
3. #22 Georgia at #16 Alabama. Since my theme is import to the BCS, and Florida and LSU play in the SEC, I thought about putting the Miami game here. But when in doubt, go with GameDay. They are broadcasting from Tuscaloosa, so here we are.
After the win over Arkansas, in which the Crimson Tide managed to be both very impressive and then very lucky, Saban’s team is looking to become a contender ahead of schedule. And they might. They could be favored in all but one of their games from here on out, as they miss both Florida and South Carolina, Auburn has been awful, and they were lucky enough to draw Vanderbilt (already played) and both Mississippi schools on the road. This gives them their four best SEC opponents—Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU—all at home. A win on Saturday, and the Alabama-LSU Saban Bowl gets even bigger.
On the other hand, Georgia’s in the same situation Tennessee was last week. They have talent, but they need a big road win to make up for an early loss. UT lost what amounted to an elimination game—they won’t be relevant for the rest of the season. Will Georgia?
Predictions: I do think Spurrier will outcoach Les Miles, but I don’t think it will be able to make up for the Tigers’ talent level. If Chad Henne were completely healthy, I would consider taking Michigan, but I don’t think they can afford to have him at less than 100%. If Mallett plays, I doubt the game will be close. Fifteen passes and ninety yards will cut it against Notre Dame this year, but more balance is needed against as high-caliber a defense as Penn State’s. In the nightcap, I think Alabama has the edge. Since I mentioned GameDay, I was going to make a joke here about channeling my inner Corso and putting on a mascot head for this one, but after I saw the commercial where he keeps the heads in his hotel bed with him, I was too creeped out.
Picks: LSU, Penn State, Alabama.
PS In case you have never received a classical education, the last part of the title of this article is a Simpsons' reference.
In fact, since Georgia Tech’s eye-opening demolition of Notre Dame turned out not to be such a big deal after all, plus they got dominated by BC, and Virginia Tech hasn’t turned in a great performance yet, Miami might be the new favorite in the ACC Coastal. Maybe I should have made that the #3 game this week. Oh well.
1. #12 South Carolina at #2 LSU. This game could be closer than people think. Since he arrived in 2005, this is the season Spurrier expected to compete. His team’s talent and experience level has improved every year; this year’s edition boasts ten of the same defensive starters that held opponents under 19 ppg, and already won at Georgia.
Furthermore, since the Ol’ Ball Coach came to SC, he’s played four games against top 10 opponents. He hasn’t won one yet, but the loss margin has been two, seven, seven and one. Spurrier gets his teams ready to play in big games, and at 3-0 and having made the claim his team is ready to contend for the SEC title, this is his biggest yet.
That said, LSU has looked unstoppable in every aspect.
2. #10 Penn State at Michigan. Michigan’s season may have been considered over as soon as they lost to Apppalachian State, but now their focus has to be on their zero in the conference loss column. And as ESPN is eager to tell you, Michigan has eight straight wins against PSU, including the Nittany Lions’ only loss of the 2005 season last time they visited the Big House.
On the other hand, Penn State has more experience, hasn’t given up 34 points to a I-AA team or 600 yards to Oregon, and will have someone better than Mike Hart to try to stop Mike Hart (this would be LB Dan Connor). So there’s a case here too.
Either way, with Ohio State’s D impressing, and over half the conference undefeated, this game is important for both teams’ Big Ten title hopes.
3. #22 Georgia at #16 Alabama. Since my theme is import to the BCS, and Florida and LSU play in the SEC, I thought about putting the Miami game here. But when in doubt, go with GameDay. They are broadcasting from Tuscaloosa, so here we are.
After the win over Arkansas, in which the Crimson Tide managed to be both very impressive and then very lucky, Saban’s team is looking to become a contender ahead of schedule. And they might. They could be favored in all but one of their games from here on out, as they miss both Florida and South Carolina, Auburn has been awful, and they were lucky enough to draw Vanderbilt (already played) and both Mississippi schools on the road. This gives them their four best SEC opponents—Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU—all at home. A win on Saturday, and the Alabama-LSU Saban Bowl gets even bigger.
On the other hand, Georgia’s in the same situation Tennessee was last week. They have talent, but they need a big road win to make up for an early loss. UT lost what amounted to an elimination game—they won’t be relevant for the rest of the season. Will Georgia?
Predictions: I do think Spurrier will outcoach Les Miles, but I don’t think it will be able to make up for the Tigers’ talent level. If Chad Henne were completely healthy, I would consider taking Michigan, but I don’t think they can afford to have him at less than 100%. If Mallett plays, I doubt the game will be close. Fifteen passes and ninety yards will cut it against Notre Dame this year, but more balance is needed against as high-caliber a defense as Penn State’s. In the nightcap, I think Alabama has the edge. Since I mentioned GameDay, I was going to make a joke here about channeling my inner Corso and putting on a mascot head for this one, but after I saw the commercial where he keeps the heads in his hotel bed with him, I was too creeped out.
Picks: LSU, Penn State, Alabama.
PS In case you have never received a classical education, the last part of the title of this article is a Simpsons' reference.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
On USC, Florida, and Yet Another ACC Game
Two weeks into the college football season, we’re starting to get a picture of how the season is going. The Pac 10 is dominating, the Big East really is that good after all, the SEC (duh) goes five or six deep, Michigan-Notre Dame is completely irrelevant, and the ACC still doesn’t have a marquee team.
In last week’s three games, some of the top teams created some separation between them and the pack. LSU deserves to be ranked #1 for now, and Texas-Oklahoma set themselves ahead of the pack in the Big 12, again. Also, like I said, Kyle Wright is now back in for Miami. Teams should play second-rate QBs against Oklahoma more often, so I can keep looking like I know what I’m talking about. Anyway, this week’s top 3 games:
1. #22 Tennessee at #5 Florida. I have a friend who loves Tennessee football, and for some reason, she hates Casey Clausen. I found this confusing because I always thought he did really well at UT. But here’s the thing: although I think it wasn’t his fault, the feeling probably comes from the fact that his teams failed to make the BCS while the window was open. When Clausen was an upperclassman, Spurrier was out and Zook was in. We didn’t yet know how good Mark Richt was—in retrospect, we can see that Georgia’s rise is almost perfectly invertible with Florida State’s decline, but that’s a whole different column. Now we can see Georgia is here to stay, Spurrier’s back around, Urban Meyer is bringing in enough talent to start USC East, and every SEC West team outside of Mississippi is better than they were five years ago. Tennessee’s window of opportunity has been closing ever since Casey’s days. It isn’t much of a stretch to imagine that a decisive Florida victory this week could shut it on Phil Fulmer permanently.
For their part, Florida will be looking to keep pace with LSU and keep themselves in the national title picture.
2. #21 Boston College at #15 Georgia Tech. ACC teams, if you’re keeping track, have now showed up on five of my nine big games so far. This is partly because they schedule early conference games, but mostly it is attributable to their status as the weakest BCS conference. Since no one has any clue who the best team in this conference might be, we have to keep watching to find out. Boston College, as noted before, is the most experienced team in the league, and boasts the best quarterback. They’ve been solid but unspectacular against Wake Forest and NC State. GT looked fabulous at Notre Dame and against Samford, but who knows what that’s worth? If they take care of BC, they could challenge for the top 10 next week. If BC wins, they will be 6-0 and Matt Ryan will be on the fringe of the Heisman race by mid-October.
3. #1 USC at #16 Nebraska. The Pac-10 has oozed quality so far, with Cal, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA and Washington all posting solid wins and cruising to 2-0. Meanwhile, with LSU, Florida and Oklahoma all impressing, it has been easy to forget that USC is still the odds-on favorite in the conference and the country. They will be out to remind people.
They’ll be up against pretty much the entire city of Lincoln. Nebraska is a good team, and QB Sam Keller played the 2005 Trojans tough when he was at Arizona State. If Nebraska can win, or even stay close, it will establish them not only as the early Big 12 North favorite, but a legitimate concern to the Oklahoma/Texas winner in the championship game.
As a side note, I put the ACC game ahead of this because as a conference game, I felt it has slightly more importance. This game is the best of the week in terms of combined team ranking, and the result is important to both programs and their conferences, but it does not impact either team's ability to win said conferences. So it drops to 3rd.
Predictions: I just don’t see Fulmer having the defense to get it done in the Swamp. Even with Caldwell missing, the Gators have weapons everywhere, and keep in mind this is the first team EVER in the third straight year of Urban Meyer’s offense. Nebraska doesn’t have the talent to hang around with USC, but few teams do. In the ACC, I’m taking BC in a slight upset. GT hasn’t seen a defense that could slow down Tashard Choice, and I think Taylor Bennett will have a tough time if he needs to pass to be successful. BC is more balanced and should get the win.
Picks: Florida, BC, USC
In last week’s three games, some of the top teams created some separation between them and the pack. LSU deserves to be ranked #1 for now, and Texas-Oklahoma set themselves ahead of the pack in the Big 12, again. Also, like I said, Kyle Wright is now back in for Miami. Teams should play second-rate QBs against Oklahoma more often, so I can keep looking like I know what I’m talking about. Anyway, this week’s top 3 games:
1. #22 Tennessee at #5 Florida. I have a friend who loves Tennessee football, and for some reason, she hates Casey Clausen. I found this confusing because I always thought he did really well at UT. But here’s the thing: although I think it wasn’t his fault, the feeling probably comes from the fact that his teams failed to make the BCS while the window was open. When Clausen was an upperclassman, Spurrier was out and Zook was in. We didn’t yet know how good Mark Richt was—in retrospect, we can see that Georgia’s rise is almost perfectly invertible with Florida State’s decline, but that’s a whole different column. Now we can see Georgia is here to stay, Spurrier’s back around, Urban Meyer is bringing in enough talent to start USC East, and every SEC West team outside of Mississippi is better than they were five years ago. Tennessee’s window of opportunity has been closing ever since Casey’s days. It isn’t much of a stretch to imagine that a decisive Florida victory this week could shut it on Phil Fulmer permanently.
For their part, Florida will be looking to keep pace with LSU and keep themselves in the national title picture.
2. #21 Boston College at #15 Georgia Tech. ACC teams, if you’re keeping track, have now showed up on five of my nine big games so far. This is partly because they schedule early conference games, but mostly it is attributable to their status as the weakest BCS conference. Since no one has any clue who the best team in this conference might be, we have to keep watching to find out. Boston College, as noted before, is the most experienced team in the league, and boasts the best quarterback. They’ve been solid but unspectacular against Wake Forest and NC State. GT looked fabulous at Notre Dame and against Samford, but who knows what that’s worth? If they take care of BC, they could challenge for the top 10 next week. If BC wins, they will be 6-0 and Matt Ryan will be on the fringe of the Heisman race by mid-October.
3. #1 USC at #16 Nebraska. The Pac-10 has oozed quality so far, with Cal, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA and Washington all posting solid wins and cruising to 2-0. Meanwhile, with LSU, Florida and Oklahoma all impressing, it has been easy to forget that USC is still the odds-on favorite in the conference and the country. They will be out to remind people.
They’ll be up against pretty much the entire city of Lincoln. Nebraska is a good team, and QB Sam Keller played the 2005 Trojans tough when he was at Arizona State. If Nebraska can win, or even stay close, it will establish them not only as the early Big 12 North favorite, but a legitimate concern to the Oklahoma/Texas winner in the championship game.
As a side note, I put the ACC game ahead of this because as a conference game, I felt it has slightly more importance. This game is the best of the week in terms of combined team ranking, and the result is important to both programs and their conferences, but it does not impact either team's ability to win said conferences. So it drops to 3rd.
Predictions: I just don’t see Fulmer having the defense to get it done in the Swamp. Even with Caldwell missing, the Gators have weapons everywhere, and keep in mind this is the first team EVER in the third straight year of Urban Meyer’s offense. Nebraska doesn’t have the talent to hang around with USC, but few teams do. In the ACC, I’m taking BC in a slight upset. GT hasn’t seen a defense that could slow down Tashard Choice, and I think Taylor Bennett will have a tough time if he needs to pass to be successful. BC is more balanced and should get the win.
Picks: Florida, BC, USC
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Mike, On the East Divisions (NFL)
After spending the past four years at a college in Ohio, I’ve become used to hearing many gripes about how the media has an East Coast bias, and how Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington run the country when it comes to big time sports. Look, I can’t help that we have bigger (and better) cities with older, more traditional sports teams and loads of disposable income. When you have a city of over 10 million people that has nine major professional sports teams in the four major sports (yes, hockey counts) with four – count ‘em, FOUR full-time sports television stations, then you can have a legitimate complaint. Anyway, my gift to all of you is holding off the East divisions until third. Sure, people on the left coast won’t be happy, but they’re not even awake to watch half these games, so who cares?
Now that that’s off my chest, the previews:
AFC East
It pains me to say that I don’t think my team will make the playoffs this year. If you want one date that could very well determine the final AFC wild card team, circle October 21. The New York Jets will head to Ohio and battle the Cincinnati Bengals. I think these will be the last two teams standing, and the winner here will most likely keep playing past Week 17. The Jets are better with the addition of Thomas Jones, but a second-place schedule could be their undoing (although Tennessee and Kansas City are easier games than Buffalo’s trade off of Jacksonville and Denver). Regardless, this has all the makings of a 9-7 team that will finish seventh overall in the conference.
The Bills, meanwhile, continue to dislike the idea of having good running backs on their teams. With McGahee gone to Baltimore, you might not find a happier Jets fan than me. Losman, however, appears to have turned a bit of a corner, and Lee Evans will always give opposing secondaries fits. If Buffalo wants to win, they’ll have to do it with defense and special teams, winning the turnover battles and consistently giving their offense, who won’t run the ball well, good field position. They will play on Monday Night Football for the first time since 2001, though, so at least there’s one positive to this season.
I sincerely hope Ted Ginn, Jr. has a good ROI, because Miami passed up a future franchise QB for a guy who runs really fast… and that’s about it. He’s never been a great route runner, and I think Ginn is closer to Dante Hall than Michael Irvin as far as playmaking abilities are concerned. You just don’t take a special teamer with the number 9 overall pick. This will severely hurt the Dolphins, Trent Green at QB or not, and they’ll finish the season looking up at three teams once again this year.
Oh, and I almost forgot – the Patriots are good. Really good. Really really good. Really really really… ok, you get the point. Actually, the Pats are vulnerable as the season begins because of Rodney Harrison’s admission to using HGH, which will sideline him 4 games. This comes on the heels of placing Richard Seymour on the PUP list, costing him at least the first 6 games. If you’re going to beat NE, you better do it before Columbus Day. After that, it’s the postseason express, taking all ticketed passengers (and bandwagoners) straight to January.
Pick: New England, New York, Buffalo, Miami
NFC East
I like to call this division “half-and-half.” There are two teams that could win the entire NFC, and there are two teams with an outside shot at the top overall pick come April. The losers first, and what better place to begin than the home of football’s most famous “retiree” (read: quitter) – New York. Yes, the Giants will be awful. The only reason the G-men were successful last year is that Tiki Barber ran through defenses like water through a sieve. When he stopped caring and announced his retirement midway through the season, the team went south, not because of the distraction but because Tiki wasn’t caring and producing like normal, so the pressure shifted to Eli Manning. This year? No Tiki at all. If you’d like to see the stereotypical “deer-in-headlights” look, check out Eli around Week 10.
Competing with the Giants for the “ultimate sucky NFC East football team” title this season – your 2007 Washington Redskins! Recently, one esteemed football publication commented that the Redskins have possibly the best two safeties in the league. That’s fantastic news, and it’ll be even better news when they find 20 other players to play along side them. Seriously though, this is an old football team offensively outside of Jason Campbell, they have very little O-line depth, and the front seven gets no pass rush, making the secondary vulnerable. Tough to win with that recipe.
Philadelphia’s won four of the last five division titles, and everyone seems to think they can do it again. The problem is the health (and also relative incompetence at times) of Donovan McNabb. Word is that it takes at least a full year, maybe more like 18 months, to recover the injury Donovan sustained last November. With no Jeff Garcia, the Eagles are pinning their hopes to what is quite frankly an overrated QB. Westbrook is a legitimate stud, but if they’re going to insist on throwing him the ball instead of handing it to him, they could wind up on the road come playoff time.
Dallas will suffer not having Bill Parcells on the sidelines. Every other team that’s watched Bill walk away has, so why should Dallas be different? The only key here is Tony Romo. If he recovers mentally from the dropped snap in Seattle last winter, this will be the team to beat in the East. If he’s shaky, new coach Wade Phillips might have some interesting decisions to make under a very large microscope named Jerry Jones. Texas takes their football seriously, and with large expectations, the Cowboys – Romo and Phillips in particular – will be expected to produce winning results.
Pick: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York
Now that that’s off my chest, the previews:
AFC East
It pains me to say that I don’t think my team will make the playoffs this year. If you want one date that could very well determine the final AFC wild card team, circle October 21. The New York Jets will head to Ohio and battle the Cincinnati Bengals. I think these will be the last two teams standing, and the winner here will most likely keep playing past Week 17. The Jets are better with the addition of Thomas Jones, but a second-place schedule could be their undoing (although Tennessee and Kansas City are easier games than Buffalo’s trade off of Jacksonville and Denver). Regardless, this has all the makings of a 9-7 team that will finish seventh overall in the conference.
The Bills, meanwhile, continue to dislike the idea of having good running backs on their teams. With McGahee gone to Baltimore, you might not find a happier Jets fan than me. Losman, however, appears to have turned a bit of a corner, and Lee Evans will always give opposing secondaries fits. If Buffalo wants to win, they’ll have to do it with defense and special teams, winning the turnover battles and consistently giving their offense, who won’t run the ball well, good field position. They will play on Monday Night Football for the first time since 2001, though, so at least there’s one positive to this season.
I sincerely hope Ted Ginn, Jr. has a good ROI, because Miami passed up a future franchise QB for a guy who runs really fast… and that’s about it. He’s never been a great route runner, and I think Ginn is closer to Dante Hall than Michael Irvin as far as playmaking abilities are concerned. You just don’t take a special teamer with the number 9 overall pick. This will severely hurt the Dolphins, Trent Green at QB or not, and they’ll finish the season looking up at three teams once again this year.
Oh, and I almost forgot – the Patriots are good. Really good. Really really good. Really really really… ok, you get the point. Actually, the Pats are vulnerable as the season begins because of Rodney Harrison’s admission to using HGH, which will sideline him 4 games. This comes on the heels of placing Richard Seymour on the PUP list, costing him at least the first 6 games. If you’re going to beat NE, you better do it before Columbus Day. After that, it’s the postseason express, taking all ticketed passengers (and bandwagoners) straight to January.
Pick: New England, New York, Buffalo, Miami
NFC East
I like to call this division “half-and-half.” There are two teams that could win the entire NFC, and there are two teams with an outside shot at the top overall pick come April. The losers first, and what better place to begin than the home of football’s most famous “retiree” (read: quitter) – New York. Yes, the Giants will be awful. The only reason the G-men were successful last year is that Tiki Barber ran through defenses like water through a sieve. When he stopped caring and announced his retirement midway through the season, the team went south, not because of the distraction but because Tiki wasn’t caring and producing like normal, so the pressure shifted to Eli Manning. This year? No Tiki at all. If you’d like to see the stereotypical “deer-in-headlights” look, check out Eli around Week 10.
Competing with the Giants for the “ultimate sucky NFC East football team” title this season – your 2007 Washington Redskins! Recently, one esteemed football publication commented that the Redskins have possibly the best two safeties in the league. That’s fantastic news, and it’ll be even better news when they find 20 other players to play along side them. Seriously though, this is an old football team offensively outside of Jason Campbell, they have very little O-line depth, and the front seven gets no pass rush, making the secondary vulnerable. Tough to win with that recipe.
Philadelphia’s won four of the last five division titles, and everyone seems to think they can do it again. The problem is the health (and also relative incompetence at times) of Donovan McNabb. Word is that it takes at least a full year, maybe more like 18 months, to recover the injury Donovan sustained last November. With no Jeff Garcia, the Eagles are pinning their hopes to what is quite frankly an overrated QB. Westbrook is a legitimate stud, but if they’re going to insist on throwing him the ball instead of handing it to him, they could wind up on the road come playoff time.
Dallas will suffer not having Bill Parcells on the sidelines. Every other team that’s watched Bill walk away has, so why should Dallas be different? The only key here is Tony Romo. If he recovers mentally from the dropped snap in Seattle last winter, this will be the team to beat in the East. If he’s shaky, new coach Wade Phillips might have some interesting decisions to make under a very large microscope named Jerry Jones. Texas takes their football seriously, and with large expectations, the Cowboys – Romo and Phillips in particular – will be expected to produce winning results.
Pick: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York
On a Big Week for the ACC Coastal and Big 12 South (NCAAF)
For most teams, this is the real opening week of college football season. The exhibition game is out of the way for traditional powerhouses: no more Youngstown State for Ohio State, Idaho for USC, or Michigan for Appalachian State.
Here are this week’s big three games:
1. #9 Virginia Tech at #2 LSU. This game replaces the Ohio State-Texas series as the only scheduled matchup between favorites of BCS conferences. These teams may have the best two defenses in the country. I would say we might have a repeat of LSU’s 7-3 game against Auburn last year, except that judging from LSU’s seven forced turnovers and VT’s pick six last week, the defenses themselves may score than ten points. VT’s O-line will have to be more convincing than they were against East Carolina (27 carries for 51 yards, 4 sacks) if they’re hoping to stop DT Glenn Dorsey, who could be starting in the NFL right now if he wanted to be.
2. #19 TCU at #7 Texas. Texas owes Oklahoma an onside kick. They needed a questionable penalty to nullify Arkansas State’s recovery late in their opener, which would have given the Indians (I bet you didn’t even know their mascot) a chance for a game-tying score. Oklahoma, as you may remember, lost out on a similar call at Oregon last season. Since Appalachian State is more than ten points better than Arkansas State, Texas probably really played the worst of any national title contender last week.
That won’t cut it this week. Along with the eventual winner of the Hawaii-Boise State game, TCU is the non-BCS team with the best shot at scoring an invite to one of the big bowls. This means their entire season is on the line against the Longhorns, and they know it. Two years ago, TCU knocked off #7 Oklahoma on the road in a similar game, and this year’s edition is even better than that one. They have nine defensive starters back from last year’s 11-2 squad, and pitched a shut out in the opener against Baylor. TCU is good enough to win, and good enough to be considered a legitimate statement game if Texas were to win convincingly.
3. Miami, FL at #5 Oklahoma. This is just a good college football game. These are two name-brand programs who smell blood in the water, as their conference favorites (see above) looked vulnerable last week and are at risk again this week. Meanwhile, these teams rolled. In beating North Texas 79-10, Oklahoma dominated their game about as much as is possible. In beating Marshall 31-3, though, Miami still played an incomplete game.
I wrote Miami in previously as a darkhorse title contender, but I would like to note that I withdrew that possibility the moment Kirby Freeman was announced the starter. Even with Kyle Wright under center, the Canes were probably in trouble this week, but with the less experienced Freeman, they’re just asking to lose. They dominated the line of scrimmage last week, with their two main backs combining for 200 rushing yards on 25 carries. This masked Freeman’s 9/21 for 86 yards. Oklahoma will expose it. I would not be surprised to see Wright finish this game, causing new coach Randy Shannon QB controversy headaches all season.
Predictions: Last week, I took a shot on two out of three underdogs, splitting those games, but this week I can’t see any. None of the three visitors have the passing offense to keep stronger, faster defenses honest and open up their running games. Texas is the most vulnerable favorite of the three, but they will be focused after their opening scare and ready to win.
Picks: LSU, Texas, Oklahoma
Here are this week’s big three games:
1. #9 Virginia Tech at #2 LSU. This game replaces the Ohio State-Texas series as the only scheduled matchup between favorites of BCS conferences. These teams may have the best two defenses in the country. I would say we might have a repeat of LSU’s 7-3 game against Auburn last year, except that judging from LSU’s seven forced turnovers and VT’s pick six last week, the defenses themselves may score than ten points. VT’s O-line will have to be more convincing than they were against East Carolina (27 carries for 51 yards, 4 sacks) if they’re hoping to stop DT Glenn Dorsey, who could be starting in the NFL right now if he wanted to be.
2. #19 TCU at #7 Texas. Texas owes Oklahoma an onside kick. They needed a questionable penalty to nullify Arkansas State’s recovery late in their opener, which would have given the Indians (I bet you didn’t even know their mascot) a chance for a game-tying score. Oklahoma, as you may remember, lost out on a similar call at Oregon last season. Since Appalachian State is more than ten points better than Arkansas State, Texas probably really played the worst of any national title contender last week.
That won’t cut it this week. Along with the eventual winner of the Hawaii-Boise State game, TCU is the non-BCS team with the best shot at scoring an invite to one of the big bowls. This means their entire season is on the line against the Longhorns, and they know it. Two years ago, TCU knocked off #7 Oklahoma on the road in a similar game, and this year’s edition is even better than that one. They have nine defensive starters back from last year’s 11-2 squad, and pitched a shut out in the opener against Baylor. TCU is good enough to win, and good enough to be considered a legitimate statement game if Texas were to win convincingly.
3. Miami, FL at #5 Oklahoma. This is just a good college football game. These are two name-brand programs who smell blood in the water, as their conference favorites (see above) looked vulnerable last week and are at risk again this week. Meanwhile, these teams rolled. In beating North Texas 79-10, Oklahoma dominated their game about as much as is possible. In beating Marshall 31-3, though, Miami still played an incomplete game.
I wrote Miami in previously as a darkhorse title contender, but I would like to note that I withdrew that possibility the moment Kirby Freeman was announced the starter. Even with Kyle Wright under center, the Canes were probably in trouble this week, but with the less experienced Freeman, they’re just asking to lose. They dominated the line of scrimmage last week, with their two main backs combining for 200 rushing yards on 25 carries. This masked Freeman’s 9/21 for 86 yards. Oklahoma will expose it. I would not be surprised to see Wright finish this game, causing new coach Randy Shannon QB controversy headaches all season.
Predictions: Last week, I took a shot on two out of three underdogs, splitting those games, but this week I can’t see any. None of the three visitors have the passing offense to keep stronger, faster defenses honest and open up their running games. Texas is the most vulnerable favorite of the three, but they will be focused after their opening scare and ready to win.
Picks: LSU, Texas, Oklahoma
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