Well, one of the Big Teams lost last week, like I predicted. It just wasn’t LSU. USC’s loss, coupled with some writers’ claiming they aren’t out of it yet, got me thinking. Who is still in the national championship race? The way I see it, there are three such classes.
First are the major conference undefeateds. This includes LSU, Ohio State, Cal, Boston College, South Florida, Missouri, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Kansas, and Connecticut. You might argue the last teams on that list probably wouldn’t get in no matter what they do, and I’d guess you’d be right, but they would at least have a shot to get in by winning out.
Second are the high-profile one loss teams that could get back into the race with some statement wins and some luck. This group consists of USC, Oklahoma, Oregon, West Virginia and Virginia Tech.
The third group is Hawaii. They’ve already forfeited their chance by having close games and having a terrible schedule, but I would be interested to see how many #1 votes they would get if they managed to go undefeated and everybody else lost a game. In fact, I root for this to happen for the best non-BCS team almost every year.
Anyway, with that in mind, let’s look at the Big Three games this week.
1. #11 Missouri at #6 Oklahoma. With apologies to Andre Woodson, Tim Tebow, Colt Brennan and Matt Ryan, Chase Daniel is the #1 QB in college football right now. He has been nearly perfect for Missouri, and has played his best two games of the season in his two biggies: Illinois and Nebraska. That said, Missouri’s defense has given up a ton of points, against teams vastly inferior to Oklahoma.
As a side note, how great is it that the last two undefeated teams in the Big 12 are Missouri and Kansas? It’s a shame they don’t play earlier in the season; if they’ve both dropped from 5-0 to 8-3 or 7-4 by the time the finale rolls around, that will be too bad. In the meantime, keep an eye out for KU’s CB/WR Aqib Talib, who had a pick, a TD catch and the coolest name on the field against K-State last week. No one cares yet except NFL scouts, but like Daniel, you could make a case Talib is the best player in the Big 12.
2. #1 LSU at #17 Kentucky. That’s the sound of the clock striking midnight on the Wildcats. That’s okay; it just means time for basketball season, where Kentucky is no Cinderella.
Or is it? One of my friends called this one a big game to watch out for; LSU just had the draining win over Florida, and Kentucky is dangerous, coming off a loss and at home. Also, Woodson rarely gets picked, and that sort of decision-making is a necessity against a D like the Tigers’. As we’ve seen this year, it could happen.
3. Louisville at #15 Cincinnati. Cincy is one of those teams that we’re not yet quite sure if they’re for real. They have shown one classic signal of a really good team—they don’t just beat the teams they should beat, they destroy them. Their first five wins were by an average of five TDs. In the sixth game, they won at Rutgers.
Louisville missed out on an undefeated season last year by failing to do just that. And, as sad as they’ve been this year, only one of their three losses has been in conference. Sooner or later, the coach and team have to get onto the same page, and when they do, let’s not forget the Cardinals are still loaded with offensive talent. While the Cincinnati front seven has been fantastic, Mike Teel threw for 334 yards last week, but failed to capitalize due to three INTs. Brian Brohm, who is dropping behind Woodson and Ryan on draft boards pretty much entirely due to his defense’s inability to get a stop, probably won’t have the same problem. By the way, I should have apologized to him above. Sorry twice, Brian.
Predictions: Missouri-Oklahoma is going to be a shootout. Daniel will put up points, but Mizzou simply can’t bring the D they have into Norman and expect anything good to happen. Kentucky doesn’t have the athletes to hang with LSU. Woodson’s greatest strength is making good decisions and delivering the ball to open players: when no one is open and the pocket can’t hold, that won’t do him much good. Louisville’s offense will expose Cincy’s secondary, and sooner or later their D has to jell, right? I’m taking Louisville, and I love that it’s an upset pick. Who would have guessed?
Picks: Oklahoma, LSU, Louisville
Friday, October 12, 2007
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Mike, On MLB's Toughest Places to Play
Now that the NFL previews have been written and posted and the season is underway, it’s time to begin another collection of features. This time, as you might have guessed by the title, we’re going to look at the most difficult venues that opposing teams have to face. As it is nearing the postseason, we’ll begin with baseball, and then move onto college and pro football, by which time we should be entering into the beginnings of hockey and basketball, so we’ll have every sport covered.
With these articles, I’ll rank the top 5 most difficult places to play, and give some honorable mentions as well. These rankings are, as is always the case, merely my opinion, but I will try to provide as much fact-oriented information as I can to support my decisions and rankings. So, with that in the background, and keeping in mind that I can actually claim to have watched a game at every one of these parks…
5. Petco Park, San Diego Padres – You’re probably already dismissing this list, but there’s a legitimate reason for this ballpark being at number 5 on this list. First off, everyday is absolutely beautiful in San Diego. As a visiting team, the allure of the beach and the wonderful scenery can be a bit distracting. The bigger reason, however, is the sheer size of the park itself. The dimensions are easily the largest in baseball, and with most of the new ballparks being built smaller than before (and, as is the case with Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park and Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, in such a way that the ball carries into left and right field, respectively, like a balloon on a windy day), the disparity between Petco and the rest of the league is rather large. It takes a completely different style of baseball to win games in SD, as evidenced by the fact that for most of the year Jake Peavy and Chris Young were 1-2 in the NL in ERA and no one on that team has had a 20 HR season since the park opened. It’s a totally different series for each and every road team than anywhere else, and it can play with your mind as a hitter (and a fielder) if you let it.
4. Wrigley Field, Chicago Cubs – This would be higher if everyone on the North Side wasn’t collectively waiting for the other foot to drop every single season. Outfielders for opposing teams risk having beer dropped on their heads, as happened to Ryan Spilborghs during the game I witnessed, and the bleacher seats in general produce some of the rowdiest fans in all of sports, period. The amenities are few and far between, the bullpens precariously close to the field (just ask the Phillies’ Michael Bourn), the walls are made of sheer brick, and ball carries well on a windy day, there’s very little foul ground – again, it’s just an entirely different ballpark than any other stadium around. The downside is the atmosphere, which feels more like a party than a baseball game. Plus, the aforementioned feeling of doom that lingers over the fans adds to the opponents’ confidence slightly (see: Florida Marlins, 2003). If the Cubs were to ever actually WIN a World Series, this place could easily become number 1 on the list.
3. Shea Stadium, New York Mets – Only at Shea Stadium could one fan call up a sports talk radio station and jokingly suggest having a John Rocker Battery Night for the first Mets-Braves game in 2000, after Rocker’s infamous Sports Illustrated interview, and over 55,000 people show up, batteries in hand, waiting for the first sight of the hated lefthander. Add to that unbelievable fan passion an extraordinarily loud PA and sound system, coupled with a decrepit and decaying structure, and you get a very difficult atmosphere for visitors. Again, this is a stadium that could easily be number 1, if not for the fact that when this team struggles, the fans leave in the seventh inning, and sometimes earlier. That detracts from the emotion in any sort of comeback scenario against the visitors, so it can’t be any higher than number 3.
2. Yankee Stadium, New York Yankees – If I have to explain this one to you, stop reading because you clearly know nothing about baseball. History, tradition, talent, passion, excitement – it’s all there. If you ever happen to go to a game and don’t feel goose bumps walking into and out of the same stadium as DiMaggio, Mantle, Ruth, Maris, Berra, Gehrig, Mattingly, Jeter, Jackson, Ford, Clemens, Martin, Larsen – the list is endless, and you simply can’t help get excited. Even a mid-August Yankees-Royals contest was electric. It’s an amazing ballpark in an amazing city with amazing fans and amazing tradition. It simply doesn’t get any better. Well, except for…
1. Fenway Park, Boston Red Sox – Sure, I love Yankee Stadium, but there are no better fans, no more passionate crowds, and no bigger homefield advantage in baseball than in “Bah-stahn.” The “Sawks,” and yes, you must pronounce those two words in that manner, constantly sell out homegames, and I believe they will one day soon pass the Cleveland Indians mark of consecutive sellouts that occurred back when the Indians mattered and Jacobs Field had just opened. The fans are knowledgeable and passionate, and they’re on their feet from the first pitch of the game. Couple that with some awkward outfield dimensions – namely, the deep crevice in centerfield, the absurdly low wall in right center, and the ridiculously short distance down the right field foul line – and that’s before you even get to the most distinctive feature in all of baseball, the Green Monster, and you get a really hard place for outfielders to play defense effectively. That thing is the single biggest producer of doubles in all of baseball history. For opponents to win in Fenway, they not only need talent to compete against the Red Sox, but they also need a strong-willed starting pitcher with good intestinal fortitude, a good center fielder who can cover lots of ground, and a good closer to prevent the now famous Boston Red Sox 9th-inning comeback. Oh, and they also have that thing called “tradition” too, just like NY. Pretty good home field, I’d say.
Honorable Mention: Angel Stadium, Los Angeles Angels – Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia Phillies – Coors Field, Colorado Rockies – Jacobs Field, Cleveland Indians – AT&T Park, San Francisco Giants
With these articles, I’ll rank the top 5 most difficult places to play, and give some honorable mentions as well. These rankings are, as is always the case, merely my opinion, but I will try to provide as much fact-oriented information as I can to support my decisions and rankings. So, with that in the background, and keeping in mind that I can actually claim to have watched a game at every one of these parks…
5. Petco Park, San Diego Padres – You’re probably already dismissing this list, but there’s a legitimate reason for this ballpark being at number 5 on this list. First off, everyday is absolutely beautiful in San Diego. As a visiting team, the allure of the beach and the wonderful scenery can be a bit distracting. The bigger reason, however, is the sheer size of the park itself. The dimensions are easily the largest in baseball, and with most of the new ballparks being built smaller than before (and, as is the case with Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park and Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, in such a way that the ball carries into left and right field, respectively, like a balloon on a windy day), the disparity between Petco and the rest of the league is rather large. It takes a completely different style of baseball to win games in SD, as evidenced by the fact that for most of the year Jake Peavy and Chris Young were 1-2 in the NL in ERA and no one on that team has had a 20 HR season since the park opened. It’s a totally different series for each and every road team than anywhere else, and it can play with your mind as a hitter (and a fielder) if you let it.
4. Wrigley Field, Chicago Cubs – This would be higher if everyone on the North Side wasn’t collectively waiting for the other foot to drop every single season. Outfielders for opposing teams risk having beer dropped on their heads, as happened to Ryan Spilborghs during the game I witnessed, and the bleacher seats in general produce some of the rowdiest fans in all of sports, period. The amenities are few and far between, the bullpens precariously close to the field (just ask the Phillies’ Michael Bourn), the walls are made of sheer brick, and ball carries well on a windy day, there’s very little foul ground – again, it’s just an entirely different ballpark than any other stadium around. The downside is the atmosphere, which feels more like a party than a baseball game. Plus, the aforementioned feeling of doom that lingers over the fans adds to the opponents’ confidence slightly (see: Florida Marlins, 2003). If the Cubs were to ever actually WIN a World Series, this place could easily become number 1 on the list.
3. Shea Stadium, New York Mets – Only at Shea Stadium could one fan call up a sports talk radio station and jokingly suggest having a John Rocker Battery Night for the first Mets-Braves game in 2000, after Rocker’s infamous Sports Illustrated interview, and over 55,000 people show up, batteries in hand, waiting for the first sight of the hated lefthander. Add to that unbelievable fan passion an extraordinarily loud PA and sound system, coupled with a decrepit and decaying structure, and you get a very difficult atmosphere for visitors. Again, this is a stadium that could easily be number 1, if not for the fact that when this team struggles, the fans leave in the seventh inning, and sometimes earlier. That detracts from the emotion in any sort of comeback scenario against the visitors, so it can’t be any higher than number 3.
2. Yankee Stadium, New York Yankees – If I have to explain this one to you, stop reading because you clearly know nothing about baseball. History, tradition, talent, passion, excitement – it’s all there. If you ever happen to go to a game and don’t feel goose bumps walking into and out of the same stadium as DiMaggio, Mantle, Ruth, Maris, Berra, Gehrig, Mattingly, Jeter, Jackson, Ford, Clemens, Martin, Larsen – the list is endless, and you simply can’t help get excited. Even a mid-August Yankees-Royals contest was electric. It’s an amazing ballpark in an amazing city with amazing fans and amazing tradition. It simply doesn’t get any better. Well, except for…
1. Fenway Park, Boston Red Sox – Sure, I love Yankee Stadium, but there are no better fans, no more passionate crowds, and no bigger homefield advantage in baseball than in “Bah-stahn.” The “Sawks,” and yes, you must pronounce those two words in that manner, constantly sell out homegames, and I believe they will one day soon pass the Cleveland Indians mark of consecutive sellouts that occurred back when the Indians mattered and Jacobs Field had just opened. The fans are knowledgeable and passionate, and they’re on their feet from the first pitch of the game. Couple that with some awkward outfield dimensions – namely, the deep crevice in centerfield, the absurdly low wall in right center, and the ridiculously short distance down the right field foul line – and that’s before you even get to the most distinctive feature in all of baseball, the Green Monster, and you get a really hard place for outfielders to play defense effectively. That thing is the single biggest producer of doubles in all of baseball history. For opponents to win in Fenway, they not only need talent to compete against the Red Sox, but they also need a strong-willed starting pitcher with good intestinal fortitude, a good center fielder who can cover lots of ground, and a good closer to prevent the now famous Boston Red Sox 9th-inning comeback. Oh, and they also have that thing called “tradition” too, just like NY. Pretty good home field, I’d say.
Honorable Mention: Angel Stadium, Los Angeles Angels – Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia Phillies – Coors Field, Colorado Rockies – Jacobs Field, Cleveland Indians – AT&T Park, San Francisco Giants
On College Football's Week After
I lost two of three games again last week, but I don’t feel too bad. Last week was insane. Everybody good lost or almost lost.
On the plus side, we now have a situation in which the #8 and #11 teams are playing each other in a game that probably doesn’t even have any BCS implications, because I don’t think either Kentucky or South Carolina is talented enough to beat out both Florida and Georgia. With Vandy playing well, and Tennessee still being Tennessee, either of them could even finish last. Or Georgia/UT, which is also this week, could be a basement battle. Who knows?
Anyway, let’s start with an SEC game that really does matter.
#9 Florida at #1 LSU. Not as big as we thought before Florida dropped the Auburn game, but in some ways even bigger. With a loss, Florida relinquishes control of its own destiny in the SEC East. LSU looked mortal against Tulane but still cruised. A win here pretty much solidifies their #1 ranking. If there’s one team that isn’t intimidated by all-everything DT Glenn Dorsey, though, it’s the Gators. They don’t run straight up the middle anyway.
#10 Oklahoma vs. #19 Texas. Another game that lost some luster last week. Colt McCoy and the Longhorns offense has been out of sync all year, and Oklahoma got ambushed by Colorado last week after winning their first four by 50 points a game. The key now is that it’s a knockout game. Let’s note a couple of things real quick before moving on. First of all, in Oklahoma’s favor, they actually played well in last year’s loss to Texas, but were undone by a -5 turnover ratio. Second, Texas gave up three return scores to K-State, and Colt McCoy likely played the second half concussed. That will cut short a comeback. Also, Limas Sweed looked back to full strength the week before.
#4 Ohio State at #23 Purdue. Big Ten undefeateds match up. Thanks to a terrible schedule (c’mon, Eastern Illinois and Notre Dame), Purdue joins Kansas, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Arizona State and Hawaii on the list of unbeaten teams we know nothing about. This will change. Meanwhile, Ohio State is busy giving up seven points a game, with a Washington away win on their resume and looking to add Purdue and take the inside track in the Big Ten.
Predictions: I thought Florida would take their first loss at LSU, but after last week I’m not so sure. All of a sudden, Florida really needs this win, and Urban Meyer tends to do well in must win games. Also, I feel like Oklahoma is a little bit overrated on offense, and that a healthy Colt-Sweed would be a big connection for Texas. I want to pick the upset here, and with a little faith in the Longhorn secondary I would, but I have to go with Oklahoma. And in the Big Ten, I think Ohio State’s defense is too much for Purdue, who isn’t ready for the three steps up in competition this week.
Picks: Florida, Oklahoma, Ohio State
On the plus side, we now have a situation in which the #8 and #11 teams are playing each other in a game that probably doesn’t even have any BCS implications, because I don’t think either Kentucky or South Carolina is talented enough to beat out both Florida and Georgia. With Vandy playing well, and Tennessee still being Tennessee, either of them could even finish last. Or Georgia/UT, which is also this week, could be a basement battle. Who knows?
Anyway, let’s start with an SEC game that really does matter.
#9 Florida at #1 LSU. Not as big as we thought before Florida dropped the Auburn game, but in some ways even bigger. With a loss, Florida relinquishes control of its own destiny in the SEC East. LSU looked mortal against Tulane but still cruised. A win here pretty much solidifies their #1 ranking. If there’s one team that isn’t intimidated by all-everything DT Glenn Dorsey, though, it’s the Gators. They don’t run straight up the middle anyway.
#10 Oklahoma vs. #19 Texas. Another game that lost some luster last week. Colt McCoy and the Longhorns offense has been out of sync all year, and Oklahoma got ambushed by Colorado last week after winning their first four by 50 points a game. The key now is that it’s a knockout game. Let’s note a couple of things real quick before moving on. First of all, in Oklahoma’s favor, they actually played well in last year’s loss to Texas, but were undone by a -5 turnover ratio. Second, Texas gave up three return scores to K-State, and Colt McCoy likely played the second half concussed. That will cut short a comeback. Also, Limas Sweed looked back to full strength the week before.
#4 Ohio State at #23 Purdue. Big Ten undefeateds match up. Thanks to a terrible schedule (c’mon, Eastern Illinois and Notre Dame), Purdue joins Kansas, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Arizona State and Hawaii on the list of unbeaten teams we know nothing about. This will change. Meanwhile, Ohio State is busy giving up seven points a game, with a Washington away win on their resume and looking to add Purdue and take the inside track in the Big Ten.
Predictions: I thought Florida would take their first loss at LSU, but after last week I’m not so sure. All of a sudden, Florida really needs this win, and Urban Meyer tends to do well in must win games. Also, I feel like Oklahoma is a little bit overrated on offense, and that a healthy Colt-Sweed would be a big connection for Texas. I want to pick the upset here, and with a little faith in the Longhorn secondary I would, but I have to go with Oklahoma. And in the Big Ten, I think Ohio State’s defense is too much for Purdue, who isn’t ready for the three steps up in competition this week.
Picks: Florida, Oklahoma, Ohio State
Friday, September 28, 2007
On Week 5 Football
It’s a good thing I got my gloating in last week, because my latest picks were pretty bad. Although both games were at least close, I lost on favored Alabama and Penn State. Also, I thought South Carolina would give LSU more of a game than they did. Not good.
What we did learn, from both sides, is that the gap between LSU and the rest of the SEC West is indeed very large, considering Alabama and Arkansas both dropped their games.
Also, from Penn State’s loss to a 1-2 team, we learned that the Big Ten might be back down to Ohio State and Michigan. Or pretty close.
Now, this week’s games:
West Virginia at South Florida. Thanks to Louisville’s loss against Syracuse, at home, this game has gotten ten times bigger. West Virginia is clearly the most talented team in the conference, but they drew Rutgers, Cincy and USF on the road, and all look dangerous. Meanwhile, South Florida is undefeated, has beaten a top ten team in each of the last two seasons, and has a favorable schedule. And remember, if they win, it would take two losses for WV to catch them.
Also, as an aside, Louisville’s Brian Brohm is in line to follow in Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn’s footsteps and drop down draft boards for no better reason than his defense can’t get a stop. I can’t wait for the Bills to pass on him.
California at Oregon. Two of the nation’s most explosive offenses meet. Not only will the winner of this game have a shot at USC for the Pac 10 title, but, thanks to the strength of the Pac 10, the winner of this game has an inside track at a BCS at-large bid even if they don’t beat the Trojans. This would be especially big for Oregon, who gets USC and Arizona State at home later and could start legitimately dreaming about a national title if they win.
Michigan State at Wisconsin. Anytime two undefeated Big Ten teams play, it’s a big game. Wisconsin has somehow managed to lose only one game of the 17 Bret Bielema has coached without creating any buzz whatsoever; if they had Michigan helmets, they’d be in the top five right now. Part of the reason is they haven’t managed a statement win against a quality team. Now would be a good time.
Predictions: West Virginia is too fast for USF, plain and simple. That’s all you really need to know. I think Tennessee could have beat Cal if they’d had one or two more good possessions, and Oregon has had a good possession just about every time this season. I think they will win surprisingly easily. Also, I think Wisconsin will take Michigan State, but it won’t be the quite the big win the Badgers are hoping for.
Picks: WV, Oregon, Wisconsin
What we did learn, from both sides, is that the gap between LSU and the rest of the SEC West is indeed very large, considering Alabama and Arkansas both dropped their games.
Also, from Penn State’s loss to a 1-2 team, we learned that the Big Ten might be back down to Ohio State and Michigan. Or pretty close.
Now, this week’s games:
West Virginia at South Florida. Thanks to Louisville’s loss against Syracuse, at home, this game has gotten ten times bigger. West Virginia is clearly the most talented team in the conference, but they drew Rutgers, Cincy and USF on the road, and all look dangerous. Meanwhile, South Florida is undefeated, has beaten a top ten team in each of the last two seasons, and has a favorable schedule. And remember, if they win, it would take two losses for WV to catch them.
Also, as an aside, Louisville’s Brian Brohm is in line to follow in Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn’s footsteps and drop down draft boards for no better reason than his defense can’t get a stop. I can’t wait for the Bills to pass on him.
California at Oregon. Two of the nation’s most explosive offenses meet. Not only will the winner of this game have a shot at USC for the Pac 10 title, but, thanks to the strength of the Pac 10, the winner of this game has an inside track at a BCS at-large bid even if they don’t beat the Trojans. This would be especially big for Oregon, who gets USC and Arizona State at home later and could start legitimately dreaming about a national title if they win.
Michigan State at Wisconsin. Anytime two undefeated Big Ten teams play, it’s a big game. Wisconsin has somehow managed to lose only one game of the 17 Bret Bielema has coached without creating any buzz whatsoever; if they had Michigan helmets, they’d be in the top five right now. Part of the reason is they haven’t managed a statement win against a quality team. Now would be a good time.
Predictions: West Virginia is too fast for USF, plain and simple. That’s all you really need to know. I think Tennessee could have beat Cal if they’d had one or two more good possessions, and Oregon has had a good possession just about every time this season. I think they will win surprisingly easily. Also, I think Wisconsin will take Michigan State, but it won’t be the quite the big win the Badgers are hoping for.
Picks: WV, Oregon, Wisconsin
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Mike, On Predicting the Playoffs (NFL)
The past four columns have previewed each of the eight divisions, and now it’s time to look at how the playoffs will shake out. First, a recap of my division picks.
AFC
North: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
South: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston
East: New England, New York, Buffalo, Miami
West: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
NFC
North: Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota
South: New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta
East: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York
West: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis
AFC Playoffs
I think Denver and Cincinnati will join the four division winners in the postseason. The critical game will be October 21, as I wrote in the East preview, as the Jets travel to Cincinnati, a game I think the Bengals will ultimately win and allow them the tiebraker over the Jets. Denver should cruise to somewhere between 10-12 wins, easily enough for the 5 seed. The playoffs will then shake out as follows:
5) Denver over 4) Baltimore
3) Indianapolis over 6) Cincinnati
1) New England over Denver
2) San Diego over Indianapolis
New England over San Diego
Face it, the Pats don’t lose at home in January. It simply doesn’t happen, and since I see them as a 14-2 team who will win in Week 2 over San Diego, they will have the tiebraker and home field throughout the playoffs. The Chargers will dethrone the former champs because the Colts D won’t be able to stop Tomlinson, but San Diego won’t have enough to go into Foxboro and escape with a win.
NFC Playoffs
The five givens for the playoffs are the four division winners and the second place team in the east. If either Dallas or Philadelphia misses the playoffs, I’ll be shocked. The final team is a sheer toss up. Green Bay, San Francisco, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and even Detroit could all make a push for that 6 seed. My heart says to go with Brett Favre, but my head says one of the South teams. Expect three or four teams to have a shot at the playoffs in the final week, but for me, I just can’t pick against the greatest franchise in football. Thus, the January results:
4) New Orleans over 5) Philadelphia
3) Dallas over 6) Green Bay
1) Seattle over New Orleans
2) Chicago over Dallas
Seattle over Chicago
So I’m uncreative and picked no upsets here. So what? Home field is crucial for football, especially since all six of these teams have very good home crowds and play well at home. Similarly to New England, I don’t think anyone can win on the road against either the Seahawks or Bears, and since Rex Grossman is prominently involved in this debate, Seattle gets the 1 seed and wins the NFC Championship at home.
Super Bowl
The nice part about my preview is that you don’t have two weeks worth of media coverage before the actual game. I just bring it to you straight up.
Seahawks 23, Patriots 21
Adam Vinatieri’s in Indianapolis. Patrick will finally have some company in his sorrow of “wide right” – NE’s last second field goal sails just outside the left goalpost, and the Seahawks win the first NFL title for the city of Seattle. And the best part about the whole thing – Bill Belichick’s cameraman will have the whole thing on tape from the Patriots sideline to replay over and over the entire offseason.
AFC
North: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
South: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston
East: New England, New York, Buffalo, Miami
West: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
NFC
North: Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota
South: New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta
East: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York
West: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis
AFC Playoffs
I think Denver and Cincinnati will join the four division winners in the postseason. The critical game will be October 21, as I wrote in the East preview, as the Jets travel to Cincinnati, a game I think the Bengals will ultimately win and allow them the tiebraker over the Jets. Denver should cruise to somewhere between 10-12 wins, easily enough for the 5 seed. The playoffs will then shake out as follows:
5) Denver over 4) Baltimore
3) Indianapolis over 6) Cincinnati
1) New England over Denver
2) San Diego over Indianapolis
New England over San Diego
Face it, the Pats don’t lose at home in January. It simply doesn’t happen, and since I see them as a 14-2 team who will win in Week 2 over San Diego, they will have the tiebraker and home field throughout the playoffs. The Chargers will dethrone the former champs because the Colts D won’t be able to stop Tomlinson, but San Diego won’t have enough to go into Foxboro and escape with a win.
NFC Playoffs
The five givens for the playoffs are the four division winners and the second place team in the east. If either Dallas or Philadelphia misses the playoffs, I’ll be shocked. The final team is a sheer toss up. Green Bay, San Francisco, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and even Detroit could all make a push for that 6 seed. My heart says to go with Brett Favre, but my head says one of the South teams. Expect three or four teams to have a shot at the playoffs in the final week, but for me, I just can’t pick against the greatest franchise in football. Thus, the January results:
4) New Orleans over 5) Philadelphia
3) Dallas over 6) Green Bay
1) Seattle over New Orleans
2) Chicago over Dallas
Seattle over Chicago
So I’m uncreative and picked no upsets here. So what? Home field is crucial for football, especially since all six of these teams have very good home crowds and play well at home. Similarly to New England, I don’t think anyone can win on the road against either the Seahawks or Bears, and since Rex Grossman is prominently involved in this debate, Seattle gets the 1 seed and wins the NFC Championship at home.
Super Bowl
The nice part about my preview is that you don’t have two weeks worth of media coverage before the actual game. I just bring it to you straight up.
Seahawks 23, Patriots 21
Adam Vinatieri’s in Indianapolis. Patrick will finally have some company in his sorrow of “wide right” – NE’s last second field goal sails just outside the left goalpost, and the Seahawks win the first NFL title for the city of Seattle. And the best part about the whole thing – Bill Belichick’s cameraman will have the whole thing on tape from the Patriots sideline to replay over and over the entire offseason.
Mike, On the West Divisions (NFL)
Ok, so these are a little late. I promise that nothing that happened in the season altered these predictions in any way, as I had most of it written prior to the games being played. I just never sent it to Patrick, so they’re getting up a little late [Ed. note: and since they were already late, I did not hurry in posting them]. Either way, here we go with the final two divisions.
AFC West
This division will compete with the AFC East for the title of biggest top heavy/bottom heavy division. Like their eastern counterpart, this division has two very talented, capable teams and two teams who will compete for next year’s number 1 overall pick. The cream is clearly San Diego, who has assembled, in my opinion, a more talented team than anyone else in football, including the Patriots. Tomlinson is equal to Peyton Manning as the best player in the game, and the Charges D is top 5. The question mark is Norv Turner, who had a talented team in the past with the Redskins and never lived up to expectations. This is a 14-2 team, however, and I would be surprised if they didn’t win at least another 13 this year [Ed. note: This paragraph is proof he wrote this before the season started].
The challenger to SD will be Denver, who has one key element no other team has – offseason tragedy. The death of Darrent Williams is something that will unite this Broncos team, and Mike Shanahan will use it to the utmost in keeping his team focused and driven for 17 weeks. The running game should be solid with Travis Henry now in the backfield, and Invesco Field is right up there with the best as far as home field advantages are concerned (which will be a later column, in fact). The key for Denver is obviously the maturity of second year QB Jay Cutler, who will be expected to learn from a rough finish last season and guide this team into the postseason.
Kansas City is possibly the most one-dimensional football team going. Damon Huard at QB for a full season is just asking for trouble, Larry Johnson is pretty overworked already, and Herm is not the best game manager in the world. Yes, Arrowhead provides the Chiefs with a distinct homefield advantage, but they have a difficult schedule and two extremely talented teams in their own division that they simply won’t be able to beat. Look for a tough season from KC until they can find a QB capable of taking some pressure off the running game.
And then there’s Oakland, who, while being much improved over last season, will still be the joke of the AFC. There is no running attack for the Raiders, and Daunte Culpepper, while better than Aaron Brooks, will be the subject of a boatload of blitzes all season because no one will respect Oakland’s ability to run the ball. Atlanta will most likely have the top pick next season, but with a very deep running back class available in the upcoming draft, look for JaMarcus Russell to have Darren McFadden, Mike Hart, or Steve Slaton lining up in the backfield with him next year.
Pick: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
NFC West
The trendy “sleeper” pick for the entire NFL is the San Francisco 49’ers, which, by virtue of the definition of “sleeper,” makes them NOT a sleeper. Sure, they have a very talented running back and quarterback, but it’s still a young and extremely unproven team. They surged late last year when there was very little pressure on them, but with expectations heaped high at the start of this season, I’m not sold that they’ll be able to handle it. This is a team that’s one year away from reclaiming their throne atop the NFC West, but expect them to struggle to reach .500 this season.
While one former power is on its way up, another is clearly on its way down. Marc Bulger has never been an outstanding QB, and as Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt continue to age, Bulger and the Rams will have to rely more on Steven Jackson and will become less of the “Greatest Show on Turf” that built the reputation of Saint Louis at the start of the decade. The defense is suspect, and they seem to have some sort of mental block when it comes to beating the Seahawks. Add it all up and this team is primed for a 6-10 season.
Speaking of the Seahawks, they bucked the trend last season of the Super Bowl loss hangover and were within one made field goal at the end of regulation of making their second consecutive NFC Championship Game. People seem to forget how close they came to beating the Bears in that game. Shaun Alexander is still as talented a running back as you’ll find outside of LDT, and Matt Hasselback knows how to limit costly mistakes and give this team a chance to win. Combine that talent with Mike Holmgren’s ability to simply win football games (one of only two coaches ever to win 75 games with two teams) and it should be a fourth straight division crown in the Pacific Northwest.
Finally, perhaps the most pathetic franchise in all of sports – the Arizona Cardinals. Sure, the Lions are awful, but they’ve had Hall of Famers and even NFL Championships way back when. But go through the list of bad sports franchise – Royals, Knicks, Warriors, Coyotes, Pirates, LA Kings – and they’ve all had some sort of success within the last 20 years. The only other competition for worst professional sports franchise is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and they have a built-in excuse of only having existed since 1997. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have no excuse. They have what should be an electric offense and a somewhat respectable defense, and finally two guys in head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant coach Russ Grimm who know what it takes to win. Even with all that, I can’t put this team any higher than 6-10… oh, why not, 7-9 and ahead of the Rams.
Pick: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis
AFC West
This division will compete with the AFC East for the title of biggest top heavy/bottom heavy division. Like their eastern counterpart, this division has two very talented, capable teams and two teams who will compete for next year’s number 1 overall pick. The cream is clearly San Diego, who has assembled, in my opinion, a more talented team than anyone else in football, including the Patriots. Tomlinson is equal to Peyton Manning as the best player in the game, and the Charges D is top 5. The question mark is Norv Turner, who had a talented team in the past with the Redskins and never lived up to expectations. This is a 14-2 team, however, and I would be surprised if they didn’t win at least another 13 this year [Ed. note: This paragraph is proof he wrote this before the season started].
The challenger to SD will be Denver, who has one key element no other team has – offseason tragedy. The death of Darrent Williams is something that will unite this Broncos team, and Mike Shanahan will use it to the utmost in keeping his team focused and driven for 17 weeks. The running game should be solid with Travis Henry now in the backfield, and Invesco Field is right up there with the best as far as home field advantages are concerned (which will be a later column, in fact). The key for Denver is obviously the maturity of second year QB Jay Cutler, who will be expected to learn from a rough finish last season and guide this team into the postseason.
Kansas City is possibly the most one-dimensional football team going. Damon Huard at QB for a full season is just asking for trouble, Larry Johnson is pretty overworked already, and Herm is not the best game manager in the world. Yes, Arrowhead provides the Chiefs with a distinct homefield advantage, but they have a difficult schedule and two extremely talented teams in their own division that they simply won’t be able to beat. Look for a tough season from KC until they can find a QB capable of taking some pressure off the running game.
And then there’s Oakland, who, while being much improved over last season, will still be the joke of the AFC. There is no running attack for the Raiders, and Daunte Culpepper, while better than Aaron Brooks, will be the subject of a boatload of blitzes all season because no one will respect Oakland’s ability to run the ball. Atlanta will most likely have the top pick next season, but with a very deep running back class available in the upcoming draft, look for JaMarcus Russell to have Darren McFadden, Mike Hart, or Steve Slaton lining up in the backfield with him next year.
Pick: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
NFC West
The trendy “sleeper” pick for the entire NFL is the San Francisco 49’ers, which, by virtue of the definition of “sleeper,” makes them NOT a sleeper. Sure, they have a very talented running back and quarterback, but it’s still a young and extremely unproven team. They surged late last year when there was very little pressure on them, but with expectations heaped high at the start of this season, I’m not sold that they’ll be able to handle it. This is a team that’s one year away from reclaiming their throne atop the NFC West, but expect them to struggle to reach .500 this season.
While one former power is on its way up, another is clearly on its way down. Marc Bulger has never been an outstanding QB, and as Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt continue to age, Bulger and the Rams will have to rely more on Steven Jackson and will become less of the “Greatest Show on Turf” that built the reputation of Saint Louis at the start of the decade. The defense is suspect, and they seem to have some sort of mental block when it comes to beating the Seahawks. Add it all up and this team is primed for a 6-10 season.
Speaking of the Seahawks, they bucked the trend last season of the Super Bowl loss hangover and were within one made field goal at the end of regulation of making their second consecutive NFC Championship Game. People seem to forget how close they came to beating the Bears in that game. Shaun Alexander is still as talented a running back as you’ll find outside of LDT, and Matt Hasselback knows how to limit costly mistakes and give this team a chance to win. Combine that talent with Mike Holmgren’s ability to simply win football games (one of only two coaches ever to win 75 games with two teams) and it should be a fourth straight division crown in the Pacific Northwest.
Finally, perhaps the most pathetic franchise in all of sports – the Arizona Cardinals. Sure, the Lions are awful, but they’ve had Hall of Famers and even NFL Championships way back when. But go through the list of bad sports franchise – Royals, Knicks, Warriors, Coyotes, Pirates, LA Kings – and they’ve all had some sort of success within the last 20 years. The only other competition for worst professional sports franchise is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and they have a built-in excuse of only having existed since 1997. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have no excuse. They have what should be an electric offense and a somewhat respectable defense, and finally two guys in head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant coach Russ Grimm who know what it takes to win. Even with all that, I can’t put this team any higher than 6-10… oh, why not, 7-9 and ahead of the Rams.
Pick: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis
On LSU and the Nittany Tide
Man, Kyle Wright is really making me look great. As I write this, he is in the middle of leading Miami to a complete destruction of Texas A&M, which means one of four things. Either they’re a completely different team with Wright, A&M is very overrated, UM should never leave the Orange Bowl, or else Oklahoma really is that terrifying. Probably some of everything.
In fact, since Georgia Tech’s eye-opening demolition of Notre Dame turned out not to be such a big deal after all, plus they got dominated by BC, and Virginia Tech hasn’t turned in a great performance yet, Miami might be the new favorite in the ACC Coastal. Maybe I should have made that the #3 game this week. Oh well.
1. #12 South Carolina at #2 LSU. This game could be closer than people think. Since he arrived in 2005, this is the season Spurrier expected to compete. His team’s talent and experience level has improved every year; this year’s edition boasts ten of the same defensive starters that held opponents under 19 ppg, and already won at Georgia.
Furthermore, since the Ol’ Ball Coach came to SC, he’s played four games against top 10 opponents. He hasn’t won one yet, but the loss margin has been two, seven, seven and one. Spurrier gets his teams ready to play in big games, and at 3-0 and having made the claim his team is ready to contend for the SEC title, this is his biggest yet.
That said, LSU has looked unstoppable in every aspect.
2. #10 Penn State at Michigan. Michigan’s season may have been considered over as soon as they lost to Apppalachian State, but now their focus has to be on their zero in the conference loss column. And as ESPN is eager to tell you, Michigan has eight straight wins against PSU, including the Nittany Lions’ only loss of the 2005 season last time they visited the Big House.
On the other hand, Penn State has more experience, hasn’t given up 34 points to a I-AA team or 600 yards to Oregon, and will have someone better than Mike Hart to try to stop Mike Hart (this would be LB Dan Connor). So there’s a case here too.
Either way, with Ohio State’s D impressing, and over half the conference undefeated, this game is important for both teams’ Big Ten title hopes.
3. #22 Georgia at #16 Alabama. Since my theme is import to the BCS, and Florida and LSU play in the SEC, I thought about putting the Miami game here. But when in doubt, go with GameDay. They are broadcasting from Tuscaloosa, so here we are.
After the win over Arkansas, in which the Crimson Tide managed to be both very impressive and then very lucky, Saban’s team is looking to become a contender ahead of schedule. And they might. They could be favored in all but one of their games from here on out, as they miss both Florida and South Carolina, Auburn has been awful, and they were lucky enough to draw Vanderbilt (already played) and both Mississippi schools on the road. This gives them their four best SEC opponents—Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU—all at home. A win on Saturday, and the Alabama-LSU Saban Bowl gets even bigger.
On the other hand, Georgia’s in the same situation Tennessee was last week. They have talent, but they need a big road win to make up for an early loss. UT lost what amounted to an elimination game—they won’t be relevant for the rest of the season. Will Georgia?
Predictions: I do think Spurrier will outcoach Les Miles, but I don’t think it will be able to make up for the Tigers’ talent level. If Chad Henne were completely healthy, I would consider taking Michigan, but I don’t think they can afford to have him at less than 100%. If Mallett plays, I doubt the game will be close. Fifteen passes and ninety yards will cut it against Notre Dame this year, but more balance is needed against as high-caliber a defense as Penn State’s. In the nightcap, I think Alabama has the edge. Since I mentioned GameDay, I was going to make a joke here about channeling my inner Corso and putting on a mascot head for this one, but after I saw the commercial where he keeps the heads in his hotel bed with him, I was too creeped out.
Picks: LSU, Penn State, Alabama.
PS In case you have never received a classical education, the last part of the title of this article is a Simpsons' reference.
In fact, since Georgia Tech’s eye-opening demolition of Notre Dame turned out not to be such a big deal after all, plus they got dominated by BC, and Virginia Tech hasn’t turned in a great performance yet, Miami might be the new favorite in the ACC Coastal. Maybe I should have made that the #3 game this week. Oh well.
1. #12 South Carolina at #2 LSU. This game could be closer than people think. Since he arrived in 2005, this is the season Spurrier expected to compete. His team’s talent and experience level has improved every year; this year’s edition boasts ten of the same defensive starters that held opponents under 19 ppg, and already won at Georgia.
Furthermore, since the Ol’ Ball Coach came to SC, he’s played four games against top 10 opponents. He hasn’t won one yet, but the loss margin has been two, seven, seven and one. Spurrier gets his teams ready to play in big games, and at 3-0 and having made the claim his team is ready to contend for the SEC title, this is his biggest yet.
That said, LSU has looked unstoppable in every aspect.
2. #10 Penn State at Michigan. Michigan’s season may have been considered over as soon as they lost to Apppalachian State, but now their focus has to be on their zero in the conference loss column. And as ESPN is eager to tell you, Michigan has eight straight wins against PSU, including the Nittany Lions’ only loss of the 2005 season last time they visited the Big House.
On the other hand, Penn State has more experience, hasn’t given up 34 points to a I-AA team or 600 yards to Oregon, and will have someone better than Mike Hart to try to stop Mike Hart (this would be LB Dan Connor). So there’s a case here too.
Either way, with Ohio State’s D impressing, and over half the conference undefeated, this game is important for both teams’ Big Ten title hopes.
3. #22 Georgia at #16 Alabama. Since my theme is import to the BCS, and Florida and LSU play in the SEC, I thought about putting the Miami game here. But when in doubt, go with GameDay. They are broadcasting from Tuscaloosa, so here we are.
After the win over Arkansas, in which the Crimson Tide managed to be both very impressive and then very lucky, Saban’s team is looking to become a contender ahead of schedule. And they might. They could be favored in all but one of their games from here on out, as they miss both Florida and South Carolina, Auburn has been awful, and they were lucky enough to draw Vanderbilt (already played) and both Mississippi schools on the road. This gives them their four best SEC opponents—Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU—all at home. A win on Saturday, and the Alabama-LSU Saban Bowl gets even bigger.
On the other hand, Georgia’s in the same situation Tennessee was last week. They have talent, but they need a big road win to make up for an early loss. UT lost what amounted to an elimination game—they won’t be relevant for the rest of the season. Will Georgia?
Predictions: I do think Spurrier will outcoach Les Miles, but I don’t think it will be able to make up for the Tigers’ talent level. If Chad Henne were completely healthy, I would consider taking Michigan, but I don’t think they can afford to have him at less than 100%. If Mallett plays, I doubt the game will be close. Fifteen passes and ninety yards will cut it against Notre Dame this year, but more balance is needed against as high-caliber a defense as Penn State’s. In the nightcap, I think Alabama has the edge. Since I mentioned GameDay, I was going to make a joke here about channeling my inner Corso and putting on a mascot head for this one, but after I saw the commercial where he keeps the heads in his hotel bed with him, I was too creeped out.
Picks: LSU, Penn State, Alabama.
PS In case you have never received a classical education, the last part of the title of this article is a Simpsons' reference.
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