On the National Championship Picture and Week 7

Well, one of the Big Teams lost last week, like I predicted. It just wasn’t LSU. USC’s loss, coupled with some writers’ claiming they aren’t out of it yet, got me thinking. Who is still in the national championship race? The way I see it, there are three such classes.

First are the major conference undefeateds. This includes LSU, Ohio State, Cal, Boston College, South Florida, Missouri, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Kansas, and Connecticut. You might argue the last teams on that list probably wouldn’t get in no matter what they do, and I’d guess you’d be right, but they would at least have a shot to get in by winning out.

Second are the high-profile one loss teams that could get back into the race with some statement wins and some luck. This group consists of USC, Oklahoma, Oregon, West Virginia and Virginia Tech.

The third group is Hawaii. They’ve already forfeited their chance by having close games and having a terrible schedule, but I would be interested to see how many #1 votes they would get if they managed to go undefeated and everybody else lost a game. In fact, I root for this to happen for the best non-BCS team almost every year.

Anyway, with that in mind, let’s look at the Big Three games this week.

1. #11 Missouri at #6 Oklahoma. With apologies to Andre Woodson, Tim Tebow, Colt Brennan and Matt Ryan, Chase Daniel is the #1 QB in college football right now. He has been nearly perfect for Missouri, and has played his best two games of the season in his two biggies: Illinois and Nebraska. That said, Missouri’s defense has given up a ton of points, against teams vastly inferior to Oklahoma.

As a side note, how great is it that the last two undefeated teams in the Big 12 are Missouri and Kansas? It’s a shame they don’t play earlier in the season; if they’ve both dropped from 5-0 to 8-3 or 7-4 by the time the finale rolls around, that will be too bad. In the meantime, keep an eye out for KU’s CB/WR Aqib Talib, who had a pick, a TD catch and the coolest name on the field against K-State last week. No one cares yet except NFL scouts, but like Daniel, you could make a case Talib is the best player in the Big 12.

2. #1 LSU at #17 Kentucky. That’s the sound of the clock striking midnight on the Wildcats. That’s okay; it just means time for basketball season, where Kentucky is no Cinderella.

Or is it? One of my friends called this one a big game to watch out for; LSU just had the draining win over Florida, and Kentucky is dangerous, coming off a loss and at home. Also, Woodson rarely gets picked, and that sort of decision-making is a necessity against a D like the Tigers’. As we’ve seen this year, it could happen.

3. Louisville at #15 Cincinnati. Cincy is one of those teams that we’re not yet quite sure if they’re for real. They have shown one classic signal of a really good team—they don’t just beat the teams they should beat, they destroy them. Their first five wins were by an average of five TDs. In the sixth game, they won at Rutgers.

Louisville missed out on an undefeated season last year by failing to do just that. And, as sad as they’ve been this year, only one of their three losses has been in conference. Sooner or later, the coach and team have to get onto the same page, and when they do, let’s not forget the Cardinals are still loaded with offensive talent. While the Cincinnati front seven has been fantastic, Mike Teel threw for 334 yards last week, but failed to capitalize due to three INTs. Brian Brohm, who is dropping behind Woodson and Ryan on draft boards pretty much entirely due to his defense’s inability to get a stop, probably won’t have the same problem. By the way, I should have apologized to him above. Sorry twice, Brian.

Predictions: Missouri-Oklahoma is going to be a shootout. Daniel will put up points, but Mizzou simply can’t bring the D they have into Norman and expect anything good to happen. Kentucky doesn’t have the athletes to hang with LSU. Woodson’s greatest strength is making good decisions and delivering the ball to open players: when no one is open and the pocket can’t hold, that won’t do him much good. Louisville’s offense will expose Cincy’s secondary, and sooner or later their D has to jell, right? I’m taking Louisville, and I love that it’s an upset pick. Who would have guessed?

Picks: Oklahoma, LSU, Louisville