The Big East is the new ACC. Thanks to East Carolina's vastly more impressive than last week's win, this time against supposed national title contender West Virginia, there are now two supposedly major conferences who can barely break their best team into the top 20. That loss drastically increased the chances that neither conference will receive an at-large BCS bid, meaning fans of contenders in the other four should be very happy. At worst, one such team will be left out in favor of whichever of East Carolina, Utah, BYU and Fresno State can steal a top 12 finish.
This week has a decent number of solid matchups. Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech is an early key matchup in the ACC, and the fact that an at large is already out makes it only more important. If you don't look past the jerseys, it's easy to get excited about Michigan-Notre Dame. UCLA-BYU gives UCLA a chance to pick up a second quality win, or else re-establish BYU as a legit BCS buster after their lucky, referee-assisted win at Washington. Untested and overrated Oregon visits Purdue, who might be the best team no one cares about yet. That game will go a long way to determine which conference becomes third in the pecking order behind the Big 12 and SEC. But not as much as this week's top game:
#5 Ohio State at #1 USC. Before the season, I thought the Buckeyes had a really good shot at this game, and I don't think I was alone. The Trojans would be breaking in a new QB and several new defenders, and OSU would show up more ready to play. Now they limped past Ohio, Beanie Wells is injured, and the trendy pick is USC in a blowout. But here's the thing: even without Wells, Ohio State has eighteen starters from the national runners-up. They still have two running backs who are 100 I-A teams would be happy to trade their backs for. They've allowed one offensive TD in two games, and they had a punt return to make up for it. They allowed Youngstown St. all of 74 yards and picked Ohio four times. They have no business getting blown out of this or any game, and USC better not expect them to be.
#10 Wisconsin at #21 Fresno State. The Battle of P Hill. Wisconsin RB PJ is a definite star and already has a 200 yard game under his belt this season. Fresno State coach Pat loves playing big-time opponents more than anything. Wisconsin tends to struggle in their road opener, and Fresno State has sufficient talent and experience to make things interesting, as evidenced by a fairly convincing opening win against Rutgers. A win for Fresno would put them at the forefront of the BCS buster pool, while a win for Wisconsin would give them a boost, and make the Buckeyes' October 4 visit to Madison all the more interesting.
#13 Kansas at #19 South Florida. This is the last chance for the Big East. If Kansas, who, even as highly ranked as they are, are only the fifth most highly rated team in the Big 12 takes down the new Big East favorite on the road, that's pretty much it. If South Florida can win, and keep winning, the loser of the USF-WV game could still sneak into the BCS.
Predictions: I really, really want to pick Ohio State here, but I can't actually justify it. The offense will have to play really well, and USC should be prepared. I'm not sure Fresno State really has the personnel to take Wisconsin. The Badgers are way more physically imposing than Rutgers, and while impressive the Bulldogs didn't really blow Rutgers away. In the early game, I think Kansas executes more consistently than South Florida. Todd Reesing makes the right play for the Jayhawks' offense, and KU's D has been extremely impressive so far. Meanwhile, South Florida was lucky to escape UCF last week.
Picks: USC (80/20), Wisconsin (55/45), Kansas (41/59)
LW: 13-73
Overall Adj WPct: 98-135, .421
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