Saturday, September 6, 2008

On Conference Strength

Early in the college football season, often the biggest thing going on is not sorting out specific teams but establishing the pecking order of conferences. This is especially important with the addition of an extra BCS bowl. When 3-4 major conferences get two bids instead of 1-2, there's a lot more room to use conference reputation to steal a spot.

This year, Week 1 did nothing to change the reputations of the SEC and Big 12 as top dogs; in the current rankings, both have five teams ranked higher than anyone else has more than two. The middle conferences are the Big Ten and Pac 10, with national title contenders Ohio State and USC being chased by not-quite top 10 Wisconsin/Penn State and Oregon/Arizona State. The Big East had a weak showing, with bad losses by middle class Pitt, Louisville and Rutgers. The ACC was even worse, with bad losses by supposedly high class Virginia Tech and Clemson. It was bad when 2007 ACC favorite VT lost 48-7 at LSU last year, but at least the Tigers went on to win the conference and national championships; 2008 ACC favorite Clemson lost 31-10 on a neutral field to Alabama, who at least for now is the fifth-ranked team in the SEC. And their lone TD was a kick return.

The reason I discuss this sorting is except for a possible big upset, this conference positioning is all we're getting out of Week 2. There's only one intriguing game all week, and that just barely. Other than that, there's nothing. No title contender facing a serious upset opportunity. No BCS busters with a real statement game opportunity. No major conference darkhorses facing each other. No early-season conference games with serious championship implications (no matter bad as the ACC looked, Georgia Tech-Boston College does not count). This week's results will affect the season through league strength in general, not the games below. With that endorsement:

#8 West Virginia at East Carolina. Here's the barely. ECU did outplay Virginia Tech, outgaining the Hokies by over 100 yards and Pickney completing 19 of 23 passes, but it took a blocked punt in the last two minutes for them to pull out the win anyhow. But if their pass defense plays well again, they could keep this one interesting, as West Virginia wasn't overwhelming either. Pat White threw well and often—about 60% of the time—against Villanova, but his receivers were ridiculously open most of the time. I'm still not sold on him as a passer. Defensively, West Virginia gave up 400 yards and 28 first downs to a I-AA team. Some of those were in the fourth quarter after the game was over, but still, if you're a top 10 team, that's never okay.

Cincinnati at #4 Oklahoma. For what it's worth, Oklahoma showed how a national title contender should play against a I-AA team: hold them into 3-17 passing, 36 total yards on 53 plays, two first downs and no points. On offense, score 50 points in the first half then shut it down, pull your starters, and only post seven in the second. Still heavy favorites, they shouldn't have it quite so easy this week. Cincinnati is coming off a blowout win of their own, and more importantly, last year they played four ranked teams and beat three of them. If Oklahoma can blow this game open, it will mean something.

Miami, FL at #5 Florida. In cruising to a 56-10 win over Hawaii, Florida showed off their athleticism: they scored on two interception returns, a punt return, and three offensive plays of more than 30 yards. Miami's blowout win was over much less impressive Charleston Southern, but their young team showed plenty of athleticism too, and the D looked solid under Bill Young, the guy largely responsible for putting together Kansas' defense last year. Miami collapsed down the stretch last year, and they are probably a year away, but they definitely have talent. Like Cincy, they aren't a pushover, and if they can even push the Gators, I'm sure the whole ACC would appreciate it.

Predictions: I don't know how East Carolina got two straight big opponents to play at their place, but I'm sure they'll be thrilled it got them a split. Expect West Virginia to go back to their rushing attack and score a lot of points. Cincy has a good defense, but they rely on pressuring the QB and Oklahoma has all five O-linemen back. Their spread offense always puts up points, but the Sooners will put up more. Miami fans may be talking themselves into the current edition of their team after Charleston Southern, but like Oklahoma last year, Florida will give them some perspective. That game will be over by halftime.

Picks: WV (73/27), Oklahoma (94/6), Florida (93/7)

LW: 85-62

Overall Adjusted WPct: 85-62, .578

What these numbers mean: This year, I'm going to keep track of my record, but I want some way of accounting for the fact that I'm picking three games straight up which may (like this week) not be all that balanced. So I'm using the money line to determine the oddsmakers' probabilities of winning the games, and awarding points based on that. Last week, Missouri was 74/26, Clemson was 62/38 and Utah was 41/59. So I gave myself +26 for Mizzou, +59 for Utah and -62 for Clemson. I can't find the exact results, but as I recall last year using this method I spent most of the season between .550 and .600.

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