Wednesday, October 17, 2007

On Even More SEC Games, and South Florida

Well, LSU-Kentucky cemented this college football season as one of the craziest ever. Interestingly, most of this year’s big games (with Florida-LSU standing as a big exception) have been important only in retrospect. Nobody was circling Stanford or Appalachian State on the calendar. This logic holds in the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC—except BC/VT and Ohio State/Michigan, the (non-championship) games that matter in that league are whatever the remaining upsets are. The Pac 10 doesn’t have any Big Four matchups this week, so guess which two conferences are showing up again?

1. #17 Auburn at #4 LSU. Maybe writing Auburn off for losing to South Florida was a little premature. Still, the Tigers, er, Auburn version, have some red flags. They did lose to Mississippi State, and they did fail to score a TD against Arkansas, which is less than North Texas and UT-Chattanooga can say.

Meanwhile, it goes without saying the Tig—LSU Tigers—are going to be pissed. Also, somewhat desperate. They’ve gone from the no question #1 in the country to needing two straight wins (Auburn, at Alabama) to even stay atop the SEC West.

2. #15 Florida at #7 Kentucky. Yes, it is right back on the horse in this conference. Kentucky suffered a tough loss at South Carolina and got thrown back in against LSU, and now they have no time to enjoy that victory. Like everyone in the SEC East except Vanderbilt, both these teams are pretty close to in control of their own destinies and very much in contention. That ends for the loser of this game. By the way, if you don’t think Urban Meyer has some new wrinkles from his bye week, you are crazy.

3. #2 South Florida at Rutgers. USF drew an almost obscenely fortunate home schedule, getting West Virginia, Cincy and Louisville in Tampa. So this trip to New Jersey is their only visit to a Big East contender. Although, with their wins coming against Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State and Syracuse, and with home losses to both Cincinnati and Maryland, is Rutgers really a contender? Someone will have to be, if they’re going to keep South Florida out of the national title game.

Predictions: LSU should come out angry and take advantage of Auburn’s offensive struggles. Last year they lost this one 7-3; this year it could be 30-7. Forcing Kentucky to face a rested Florida after the emotional LSU win is just about as unfair as forcing LSU to play a rested Kentucky after the emotional Florida win. Isn’t the SEC fun? And Rutgers has already been exposed; don’t expect South Florida to falter yet.

Picks: LSU, Florida, USF

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