This week is fun. There are tons of games with conference championship implications, meaning that West Virginia-Rutgers, South Florida-Connecticut, Florida-Georgia, Kansas-Texas A&M, Tennessee-South Carolina, and Cal-Arizona State didn’t make the cut. Also, the very fact that South Florida-Connecticut made that list and Nebraska-Texas didn’t tells you most of what you need to know about this season in general.
Also, this week is fun because this is the point in college football where it's officially one loss and out. No one at this point can lose and expect to be in the BCS Championship game: in the relatively weak Big 10 and ACC, Ohio State and BC can't afford not to go undefeated, and even LSU can't expect to get away with losing twice.
1. #12 USC at #5 Oregon. Despite the superior rankings in the next game, this is the top matchup of the week. First of all, no one brought this up at the time (who really wants to make excuses for USC) but Booty broke his finger in the second quarter of the Stanford game, and Carroll let him try to tough it out. Otherwise, those four picks and super upset don’t happen, and USC is comfortably the #1 team in the country. On the other hand, if Oregon hadn’t fumbled the game-tying touchdown into the end zone against California, they might well be undefeated and in the top two. Now it’s a Pac-10 elimination game. This is why college is great. Every week matters.
2. #2 Boston College at #8 Virginia Tech. These teams are a combined 13-1, and have played exactly one really good team combined (LSU, 48-7 loss by VT) and only two even okay teams (BC over Wake, VT over Clemson). Now they get to play the first game of two for conference supremacy (UVa is the only possible spoiler, which is pathetic), with national title implications for BC. Got to love ACC football.
3. #1 Ohio State at #25 Penn State. Two years ago, after Ohio State dropped the Texas game, my friend who is a die-hard Buckeye fan said the only team left on the schedule that scared him was Penn State, because of their team speed. Remember, this was still early in the year, well before sportswriters acknowledged that JoePa was still even alive. And Penn State won. Even last year, the 28-6 “blowout” was a one score game with Morelli having a chance to tie until the two straight INTs for touchdowns. This year, back in State College, the Lions will be scary again. And the Bucks’ offense hasn’t looked all that great against the only semi-decent defenses they’ve played.
Predictions: Oregon has outplayed everyone on their schedule badly, including themselves against Cal—and they almost pulled that one out. But USC’s talent level is really off the charts, and I think this might be the game they remind everybody. Everyone’s afraid to play in Blacksburg, but the secret is that this VT team isn’t really all that great. And I’d love to pick Penn State, but I won’t take Morelli against Ohio State’s D. I refuse.
Picks: USC, BC, OSU
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