Thursday, September 20, 2007

On LSU and the Nittany Tide

Man, Kyle Wright is really making me look great. As I write this, he is in the middle of leading Miami to a complete destruction of Texas A&M, which means one of four things. Either they’re a completely different team with Wright, A&M is very overrated, UM should never leave the Orange Bowl, or else Oklahoma really is that terrifying. Probably some of everything.

In fact, since Georgia Tech’s eye-opening demolition of Notre Dame turned out not to be such a big deal after all, plus they got dominated by BC, and Virginia Tech hasn’t turned in a great performance yet, Miami might be the new favorite in the ACC Coastal. Maybe I should have made that the #3 game this week. Oh well.

1. #12 South Carolina at #2 LSU. This game could be closer than people think. Since he arrived in 2005, this is the season Spurrier expected to compete. His team’s talent and experience level has improved every year; this year’s edition boasts ten of the same defensive starters that held opponents under 19 ppg, and already won at Georgia.

Furthermore, since the Ol’ Ball Coach came to SC, he’s played four games against top 10 opponents. He hasn’t won one yet, but the loss margin has been two, seven, seven and one. Spurrier gets his teams ready to play in big games, and at 3-0 and having made the claim his team is ready to contend for the SEC title, this is his biggest yet.

That said, LSU has looked unstoppable in every aspect.

2. #10 Penn State at Michigan. Michigan’s season may have been considered over as soon as they lost to Apppalachian State, but now their focus has to be on their zero in the conference loss column. And as ESPN is eager to tell you, Michigan has eight straight wins against PSU, including the Nittany Lions’ only loss of the 2005 season last time they visited the Big House.

On the other hand, Penn State has more experience, hasn’t given up 34 points to a I-AA team or 600 yards to Oregon, and will have someone better than Mike Hart to try to stop Mike Hart (this would be LB Dan Connor). So there’s a case here too.

Either way, with Ohio State’s D impressing, and over half the conference undefeated, this game is important for both teams’ Big Ten title hopes.

3. #22 Georgia at #16 Alabama. Since my theme is import to the BCS, and Florida and LSU play in the SEC, I thought about putting the Miami game here. But when in doubt, go with GameDay. They are broadcasting from Tuscaloosa, so here we are.

After the win over Arkansas, in which the Crimson Tide managed to be both very impressive and then very lucky, Saban’s team is looking to become a contender ahead of schedule. And they might. They could be favored in all but one of their games from here on out, as they miss both Florida and South Carolina, Auburn has been awful, and they were lucky enough to draw Vanderbilt (already played) and both Mississippi schools on the road. This gives them their four best SEC opponents—Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU—all at home. A win on Saturday, and the Alabama-LSU Saban Bowl gets even bigger.

On the other hand, Georgia’s in the same situation Tennessee was last week. They have talent, but they need a big road win to make up for an early loss. UT lost what amounted to an elimination game—they won’t be relevant for the rest of the season. Will Georgia?

Predictions: I do think Spurrier will outcoach Les Miles, but I don’t think it will be able to make up for the Tigers’ talent level. If Chad Henne were completely healthy, I would consider taking Michigan, but I don’t think they can afford to have him at less than 100%. If Mallett plays, I doubt the game will be close. Fifteen passes and ninety yards will cut it against Notre Dame this year, but more balance is needed against as high-caliber a defense as Penn State’s. In the nightcap, I think Alabama has the edge. Since I mentioned GameDay, I was going to make a joke here about channeling my inner Corso and putting on a mascot head for this one, but after I saw the commercial where he keeps the heads in his hotel bed with him, I was too creeped out.

Picks: LSU, Penn State, Alabama.

PS In case you have never received a classical education, the last part of the title of this article is a Simpsons' reference.

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