Mike, On Predicting the Playoffs (NFL)

The past four columns have previewed each of the eight divisions, and now it’s time to look at how the playoffs will shake out. First, a recap of my division picks.

AFC

North: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland

South: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston

East: New England, New York, Buffalo, Miami

West: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland

NFC

North: Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota

South: New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta

East: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, New York

West: Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Saint Louis

AFC Playoffs

I think Denver and Cincinnati will join the four division winners in the postseason. The critical game will be October 21, as I wrote in the East preview, as the Jets travel to Cincinnati, a game I think the Bengals will ultimately win and allow them the tiebraker over the Jets. Denver should cruise to somewhere between 10-12 wins, easily enough for the 5 seed. The playoffs will then shake out as follows:

5) Denver over 4) Baltimore

3) Indianapolis over 6) Cincinnati

1) New England over Denver

2) San Diego over Indianapolis

New England over San Diego

Face it, the Pats don’t lose at home in January. It simply doesn’t happen, and since I see them as a 14-2 team who will win in Week 2 over San Diego, they will have the tiebraker and home field throughout the playoffs. The Chargers will dethrone the former champs because the Colts D won’t be able to stop Tomlinson, but San Diego won’t have enough to go into Foxboro and escape with a win.

NFC Playoffs

The five givens for the playoffs are the four division winners and the second place team in the east. If either Dallas or Philadelphia misses the playoffs, I’ll be shocked. The final team is a sheer toss up. Green Bay, San Francisco, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and even Detroit could all make a push for that 6 seed. My heart says to go with Brett Favre, but my head says one of the South teams. Expect three or four teams to have a shot at the playoffs in the final week, but for me, I just can’t pick against the greatest franchise in football. Thus, the January results:

4) New Orleans over 5) Philadelphia

3) Dallas over 6) Green Bay

1) Seattle over New Orleans

2) Chicago over Dallas

Seattle over Chicago

So I’m uncreative and picked no upsets here. So what? Home field is crucial for football, especially since all six of these teams have very good home crowds and play well at home. Similarly to New England, I don’t think anyone can win on the road against either the Seahawks or Bears, and since Rex Grossman is prominently involved in this debate, Seattle gets the 1 seed and wins the NFC Championship at home.

Super Bowl

The nice part about my preview is that you don’t have two weeks worth of media coverage before the actual game. I just bring it to you straight up.

Seahawks 23, Patriots 21

Adam Vinatieri’s in Indianapolis. Patrick will finally have some company in his sorrow of “wide right” – NE’s last second field goal sails just outside the left goalpost, and the Seahawks win the first NFL title for the city of Seattle. And the best part about the whole thing – Bill Belichick’s cameraman will have the whole thing on tape from the Patriots sideline to replay over and over the entire offseason.