On Week 8, And An Alternate Postseason System

This week is a poor slate of games, and thanks in large part to Virginia Tech, I’ve had a poor run of picking, so this seems like a good week to look at the big picture.

The national championship race is pretty simple. The winner of the SEC Championship game, which will almost certainly be Alabama/Florida, will go. If Texas wins out, which they should, they’ll play the SEC winner. If not, we have a mess of undefeateds and one-loss teams with cases.

Now, what if my favored playoff system was in place? Instead of an eight or more team playoff, which seems excessive, or the current one, which is too restrictive, I favor a four team playoff. Since the BCS Championship game is already a week after the New Year’s Day bowls, it wouldn’t even extend the length of the season. Since all schools are off over New Year’s, there is basically no downside to this.

I would pick the four teams by the top four conference champions in the BCS standings (or independents). I think this is attractive because it allows for geographic diversity in the finals and turns conference championship games or big late season matchups into de facto playoff extensions. For instance, this year Florida and Alabama are clearly both in the top four, but that’s no reason to invite them both; if you’re not lose the SEC championship, why should you have a claim to play for the national one?

This retains the current dramatic nature and excitement of the regular season, which is one of college football’s best features, while making the postseason more inclusive, both to great major teams with an early loss as well as spectacular teams outside the big six conferences. For instance, 2004 Utah would have been in.

Let’s take a look at what the landscape would be like this year. As of right now, the SEC champion would be the one seed, Texas two, Boise State three and Cincinnati four. All are undefeated. In the current system, Boise and Cincy have almost no upward mobility; 12-0 probably won’t put either of them in the title game. But it might keep them in the top four.

Outside, teams as low as 15 in the BCS standings would feel they might break into the playoffs if they win out. Iowa and USC, currently sixth and seventh in the BCS, could pass Cincinnati on their own merits, with Ohio State and Oregon still to play (and #11 Oregon might make a similar case if they beat USC). TCU is unbeaten at #8, and still has two ranked opponents to impress voters against. #9 LSU is still in control of their own destiny; they would reach the SEC title game if they knock off Alabama, and then a win over Florida would put them through.

That’s the beauty of my system; suppose this did happen and Texas and Iowa both win out. Beating Alabama and splitting with Florida would be more impressive than sweeping the Big Ten or Big 12, but can you pick them over teams that haven’t lost and do have a couple marquee wins apiece? With an extension just to four, you never have to drop a team with a real claim on #1.

Lower teams need help, but they’re not out entirely. Cincinnati could drop the Pitt and/or West Virginia games. The USC/Oregon winner could take another loss somewhere. Ohio State, with two losses including one to Purdue, still controls their destiny in the Big Ten. Boise State and TCU could be upset. That opens doors. If any of the Miami/Georgia Tech/ Virginia Tech trio starts steamrolling teams like they should, they could benefit, especially the one-loss Canes. Penn State could climb back in, with some breaks. Even Oklahoma State has a shot, if they knock off Texas.

Unfortunately, that’s not the way it works. However, in either case, these things probably won’t be decided this week. There isn’t much going on—when I briefly consider Georgia Tech-UVa as a big game, you know the slate is bare. Here’s the sort-of games we have:

#8 TCU at #16 BYU. Boise State and TCU may not be competing for a spot in a national playoff, but they are competing for an automatic BCS bid. Boise State is ahead, but they’ve not nowhere to go but down. TCU has BYU and Utah to impress voters and get schedule points in the computers. BYU, who was harboring serious ambitions of their own before an ugly loss to Florida State, will want to return the favor. BYU has been scoring tons of points, but TCU has the best defense they’ve faced since Oklahoma, a game that ended 14-13. TCU has had a couple of close calls on the road already, against Clemson and Air Force.

#6 Iowa at Michigan State. Michigan State is unranked, but they’re Iowa’s second-toughest opponent left. The Hawkeyes have no business dropping Indiana, Northwestern, or Minnesota games at home. This game is thus the most important precursor to Iowa-Ohio State. There is a subtler reason, too: an Iowa win all but eliminates Penn State from the Big Ten title. If Iowa can really only take a loss at Ohio State, the Nittany Lions can only tie Iowa’s conference record. They would likely have won a three-way tie if Ohio State had beaten Iowa but they had been Ohio State, but now that would push the Buckeyes to two losses.

South Florida at #20 Pitt. See what I mean about this being a bad week? We’re stuck here with a sort of important Big East game. Pitt is playing well and will get Cincinnati at home to end the season. For the Big East’s purposes, I think they’d like Pitt and Cincy to win out until then. If Cincinnati wins, they might have a shot at the national title game if things break right. If Pitt wins, Cincinnati might get the Big East an at-large bid. However, if South Florida wins at starts the conference back toward chaos, business as usual. Cincy won’t have a shot at a signature win, even if they do keep playing well.

Picks:

BYU (45/55). I think these teams are about even; so far, they’ve had great games and a couple weak ones. The difference is TCU managed theirs against teams that had no shot at actually beating them, whereas BYU picked Jekyll-and-Hyde Florida State for their turn. I think for the second straight year, the home team ruins the other’s perfect season.

Iowa (46/54). The gap between these teams isn’t very big, but Iowa is better. And the Hawkeyes have had enough trouble in East Lansing to limit trap-game potential. Anytime you can take a 7-0 team as an underdog against a team with three losses to unranked teams, I think you take it.

South Florida (31/69). The Bulls had a few too many mistakes against Cincinnati, but they’ve had a long week to recover, and another loss is it for them. A desperate team with an athletic defense is a dangerous team. On the other side, Pitt has no marquee wins and a loss to NC State, who lost to Duke. That’s too few degrees of losing to Duke for football.

Last Week: 39-104

Year to Date: 369-570, .393

On Week 7

Now that everyone’s got two or three good games under their belts, the season has started to take shape. Florida and Alabama emphasized their supremacy in the SEC, and by extension everywhere. The winner of that game is almost certainly going to be playing for the national championship.

For now, the spotlight shifts elsewhere. This week’s three games will go a long way toward deciding three of the five other conferences. (The final two conferences are the Big Ten and Pac 10, which await Ohio State’s November schedule and the USC-Oregon game, respectively, to probably be decided). This is another strong week, whose matchups include Iowa-Wisconsin, Texas Tech-Nebraska, South Carolina-Alabama and even Boise State-Tulsa yesterday. USC-Notre Dame is the biggest game relegated to the undercard, omitted because each team needs a win just to stay in the game. Winners of the three games below will be on the inside track for a BCS bid.

#20 Oklahoma vs. #3 Texas. Two of the preseason top 3, and there’s not much evidence they didn’t deserve it. Oklahoma does have two losses, but they were by two total points, and Bradford wasn’t around to save either of them. And it’s safe to say he’s back, throwing for 389 yards and helping the Sooners rack up 34 first downs against a Baylor team that hasn’t been half bad. Texas is one of the few unknowns left in college football. They haven’t had a close call yet, but they haven’t had much of a chance. A ten point home win over Texas Tech wasn’t perfect, but they never were in danger. The Sooners are going to be dangerous.

#8 Cincinnati at #21 South Florida. Tonight’s game features the two undefeated teams in the Big East. Both are overachieving. While Cincinnati did win the Big East last year, the Bearcats had to replace ten of their eleven defensive starters. They’ve held up fine, though, and the offense has made up the difference, scoring 42 points a game and pushing QB Tony Pike into the Heisman race. South Florida is the opposite case. When star QB Matt Grothe went down, their offense was expected to sputter. But they’ve persevered, and the defense has picked up even more slack, holding Florida State to 7 points and then forcing seven Syracuse turnovers in the last two games. This is a fun matchup, pitting strength against strength.

#4 Virginia Tech at #19 Georgia Tech. USC-Notre Dame is sexier, but VT outranks the Trojans, GT outranks the Irish, and Virginia Tech can effectively clinch the ACC Coastal with a win, since they’ll have tiebreakers on Miami and Georgia Tech and have no ranked teams left on the schedule. A convincing win, and they’ll hang on to ambitions of a national title game appearance. A Georgia Tech win pushes the conference into chaos and also effectively takes the ACC off the national stage for the balance of the season.

Picks:

Texas (61/39). This should be a great game. Both teams are loaded with talent, Bradford’s back, and everyone on both sides has been looking forward to this all year. Also, Oklahoma’s two losses are out of conference. They’re out of the title picture, but if they win this game they should win the Big 12. However, the Longhorns have more experience, more motivation, and Colt has had longer to get in rhythm. I have to take Texas.

South Florida (46/54). I like the minor upset here. Oregon State and Fresno State both played Cincy tough. In fact, each had more first downs than the Bearcats in their games. South Florida’s D came up huge in their biggest game. Holding Florida State to 7 points is impressive; the Seminoles have been a disappointment, but they’ve also put up plenty of points. And remember. Cincinnati has 10 new defensive starters. On the road, big conference game, national TV, I’m not sure I trust them.

Virginia Tech (58/42). I’ve been picking against Virginia Tech all season, but not this time. Their D has been up and down, but when they’ve had trouble it’s been against teams who can stretch the field vertically (even Duke). And Georgia Tech can NOT do that. Georgia Tech can run, and they did damage on the ground last year against VT, but this year’s Hokie defense has shut down the run much better. They can’t count on that again. On the other side of the ball, Georgia Tech hasn’t played much D against decent teams. Why should they start now?

Last Week: 62-16

Year to Date: 330-466, .415

On Week 6

Now we’re talking. After a month of having to take any decent matchups we could find, we’re finally to the point where we have to turn serious games away. Nebraska’s win over Missouri Thursday night didn’t make the list, and neither will a handful of other games worth checking in on. Boston College-Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech-Florida State in the ACC, Michigan-Iowa in the Big Ten and Oregon-UCLA in the Pac 10 all have conference implications, even if they’re not nationally big games. For nationally big games, look to the SEC.

#1 Florida at #4 LSU. If there’s one thing that proves this season is wide open, it’s that even two undefeated SEC heavyweights have flaws. LSU put together their most complete game of the season last week to beat Georgia, but they only put up six points in a dominant first half, surrendered the lead twice in the fourth quarter and got an assist from a phantom excessive celebration penalty to finish it out. Previously, they’d struggled with both Washington and Mississippi State. Florida has most of last year’s team, which means the Gators are proven, but this year they’ve only played one decent team, Tennessee, and the Vols defense gave them trouble.

That said, these are clearly two of the most talented teams in college football. Florida doesn’t play Alabama, Ole Miss or Auburn, so a win today practically guarantees them a spot in the SEC Championship game. Of course, the flip side of this is that LSU’s road to the title game is that much harder, because they’re the only West contender that can pick up a loss to Florida. If they beat the Gators, though, computer rankings and tiebreakers will smile upon them.

#3 Alabama at #20 Mississippi. Time to test out the value of home field advantage. Alabama has been awesome so far. Everybody knew their defense was for real, but they’ve also put up 40 points a game, including 498 yards and 37 minutes of possession against Virginia Tech. Ole Miss has been struggling, with a terrible offensive showing at South Carolina followed by three more interceptions in an unimpressive win at Vanderbilt.

But there are a few reasons this game could be closer than it looks. First, Mississippi’s struggles have been on the road. This is their first big home game of the year, and the fans have been waiting all season for it. Second, Alabama’s offense isn’t that experienced, and even in the Virginia Tech game, they scored eighteen of their points in the fourth quarter when VT was wearing down. Third, and most important, Houston Nutt’s teams show up for big SEC games. Last year, Ole Miss upset Florida, lost just 24-20 to Alabama and beat LSU 31-13—all on the road. In 2007, Nutt’s Arkansas team beat LSU in Baton Rouge, almost knocking the Tigers out of the national title game. How many coaches have ever beaten consecutive national champions?

Wisconsin at #9 Ohio State. Two of the three Big Ten teams without a conference loss meet in Columbus. For Wisconsin, it’s a chance to prove they’re a team to be taken seriously, a point that four close wins and blowing out Wofford hasn’t quite yet made. For Ohio State, on the fringes of the national championship race, it’s the best chance for a statement game until November, where Penn State, Iowa and Michigan are waiting.

On the field, it’s Big Ten football: all about the run game and the turnover battle. In last year’s game, the teams combined for about 400 yards rushing and 250 passing. And this year, both squads have played in turnover-heavy ballgames. Wisconsin has 15 takeaways in 5 games, but 10 giveaways. Ohio State is at 12 and 8. If there really are four or five more turnovers this week, it’ll be an interesting game.

Picks:

Florida (74/26). The other way to look at Florida’s struggles against Tennessee is that they don’t need Tebow-like production to win a game by 10. Even if his concussion keeps him out, Brantley—and more importantly, Urban Meyer—have had a bye week to prepare for this one. Giving Meyer a big game off a bye week is just unfair. On the defensive side of the ball, UF has been great, and the first three and a half quarters of the Georgia game don’t inspire confidence that LSU will move the ball too well.

Alabama (64/36). After all that arguing that Ole Miss is dangerous, which they are, I have to go with ‘Bama. The Ole Miss offense hasn’t been in sync at all, and there’s a decent chance the Tide defense wins it single-handedly. I know this is basically how the Rebels had been playing when they shocked Florida, but still. If there’s a 30% chance that Mississippi’s offense really is the one from the South Carolina/Vandy games, and otherwise the game’s a tossup, then the smart money is on Alabama.

Wisconsin (16/84). Yes, Ohio State is the better team, and in the Horseshoe. But at five to one (a -15.5 spread), you better have a team you trust, and that’s not the Buckeyes. So far, Ohio State has beaten Navy by a 2 point conversion play, lost to a USC team missing their best player and their starting QB, and then taken care of business against Toledo and the two last place teams in the Big Ten. Up against an undefeated team with a history of playing the Buckeyes tough, 84/16 is high.

Last Week: 97-73

Year to Date: 268-450, .373

On Week 5

Last week, I picked very poorly, but I won’t take it personally. Lots of good teams had rough weeks too. It was already obvious that the national championship spots are Texas’ and the SEC champion’s to lose, but now that’s basically all we’ve got. I mean, Boise State is fifth right now. They’re nice, but top 5? Already?

In a season like this, the only thing to do is keep it simple. So the three games we’ll pick this week are the only three games between Top 25 teams.

#4 LSU at #18 Georgia. Not only is Boise State fifth right now, but LSU is fourth, which might be even worse. So far, the Tigers have been outgained by both Washington and Mississippi State. Not that those teams are awful—Washington beat USC, after all—but we should be able to find at least four more convincing teams than that. Georgia’s been in their share of entertaining games too, with the opener at Oklahoma State, two wins that came down to the wire and a third 52-41 over Arkansas. It’s hard to say which team needs this win more. Georgia has a loss already, but LSU has Florida next week and then the full West gauntlet, including Alabama and Ole Miss on the road. Wicked conference.

#7 USC at #24 California. This game looked a lot cooler before the 42-3 beatdown Oregon put on Cal last week, but it’s still one of the biggest games on the Pac 10 schedule. A Cal win would revive their season and possibly bury USC in the process—that would be two conference losses. USC has pressure to win and win impressively. If there’s going to be a one-loss team in the national title, the Trojans are always going to be in the discussion. The loss was early and came with the starting QB and All-American safety out, two factors that could give voters some sympathy. But they need to get some style points in their remaining chances, which mostly come down to this game, Notre Dame and Oregon, all on the road. Last year, USC crushed Cal with defense, holding them to 27 yards rushing and 165 overall, which is even rougher than the Golden Bears got last week in Oregon.

#8 Oklahoma at #17 Miami. Except for the conference implications, this game is sort of a clone of the last one. Oklahoma is the national title contender who lost a game without their QB, and is trying to get back in the national title discussion. Miami is the trendy team who got wrecked last week on the road, and is trying to salvage respectability. The differences favor Miami’s having a shot, though. Bradford still isn’t back for the Sooners, and Miami’s loss was more reasonable than California’s. Virginia Tech is good, and Miami’s pass attack was grounded in part by the fact that it was pouring in Blacksburg. Better conditions, and that game might have been different. That said, the Sooners are awfully good, winning their last two games 109-0, including one over a pretty decent Tulsa team.

Picks:

LSU (39/61). Neither team has been totally convincing, but Georgia’s been squeezing by less talented teams than the Tigers regularly. While their offense has been really good, it sputtered against Oklahoma State.

USC (64/36). Again, keep it simple. USC always beats Cal, USC would probably still be undefeated if Barkley could have played against Washington, and USC’s giving up ten points a game, while Cal put up three last week.

Oklahoma (73/27). Sure, Miami could keep it close, and the counter to how impressive Oklahoma’s looked is that they’ve only played one serious game so far this year, and they lost it. But, again, keep it simple. They’ve been preparing, they know they’ve used up their margin for error, they have Baylor between this and Texas, so it’s not a trap game. Miami’s rep came from beating a Jekyll-and-Hyde Florida State team, which now has been done twice by teams from southern Florida, and Georgia Tech, who is a smart team with limited talent. There’s nothing in there that says they can play with the Sooners.

Last Week: 0-175

Year to Date: 171-377, .312

On Week 4

This week is mostly devoid of big games. There’s only one pairing of ranked teams. For now, it’s mostly about giving highly rated teams a chance to prove they don’t belong after all. Ole Miss gave a clinic in this Thursday night.

Full conference play will come soon; these guys can’t duck big games forever. For now, though, all we’ve got is a trio of 3:30 kickoffs:

#9 Miami at #11 Virginia Tech. First of all, we should thank these teams. Unlike possibly every other good team in the nation, each of them is playing their third serious game in four weeks tomorrow. Miami outgunned Florida State and crushed a one-dimensional Georgia Tech. VT lost to Alabama—no shame there—and survived Nebraska on a miracle last drive. The Hokies have been inconsistent on offense, but their D is the best Miami’s seen yet, and Blacksburg is always a tough place to pick up a road win. The winner here will have the inside track to the ACC’s BCS berth.

#6 California at Oregon. Cal is one of those teams that’s difficult to judge early on. Are their blowout wins because they haven’t played anybody, or are they actually that good? They have 15 starters back from a nine win team last year, and Jahvid Best is in his second year of putting up huge numbers, so maybe they are. If they are, they get their shot at USC next week.

On the other hand, Oregon is a team we know about. They were comprehensively outplayed by Boise State, but came back to beat Purdue and Utah, two solid teams. The Boise game was on the road, though. They’re at home tomorrow, where they're more dangerous.

#15 TCU at Clemson. I picked this one because after BYU’s own brush with the ACC, the Horned Frogs are one of the leading non-BCS teams left, and the MWC really needs some redemption. TCU hasn’t proven anything this year, with one win against a I-AA team and another against Virginia, which is even worse. Clemson is coming off a tough loss at Georgia Tech and a big win over Boston College, in which they held BC to four first downs. A win would push the Tigers back towards the Top 25 and co-favorite status, along with Florida State, in their half of the ACC (opposite the Miami-VT winner). A TCU win would establish them as the Mountain West favorite, and next in line for the BCS bid if Boise State falters.

Picks:

Miami (55/45). Yes, they’re on the road, but the Hurricanes are the better team. Miami tore up Georgia Tech, and the FSU win looks even better now that the Seminoles dismantled Brigham Young. For their part, the case against Virginia Tech only gets stronger every time I’ve made it: they were outclassed against Alabama and Nebraska’s Roy Helu, Jr. ran all over them. Also, Tyrod Taylor’s still not completing half of his passes, and he’s taken 11 sacks.

California (66/34). Cal beat Oregon last year and has more returning players, and in their opener the Ducks were just no match for Boise State. This would be a huge upset.

Clemson (54/46). This is another of those games, like Nebraska/VT last week, that I’d rather not pick. I can see both sides, and I’ve been going back and forth between them. But for the record here’s Clemson’s: their D has been deadly the last six quarters, against decent teams. TCU wasn’t that convincing against Virginia and allowed 21 non-garbage points against Texas State. TCU has one member of their front seven back from last year, and Clemson’s got a veteran O-line and CJ Spiller. Clemson has better recruits, more returning starters, is starting to get it together, and is at home. TCU’s case…well, hopefully for me you won’t see it for yourself tomorrow.

Last Week: 38-108

Year to Date: 171-202, .458

On Week 3

There are a number of decent games this week, but no huge ones. The best outside the top 3 are rivalry games that aren’t expected to be close: Tennessee-Florida and Texas Tech-Texas. Utah and Boise State, the two BCS busters of past seasons who are looking strong again, also have relatively tough opponents up next in Oregon and Fresno State. But the biggest three are these:

#14 Georgia Tech at #20 Miami. In Clemson and Florida State, these teams have one good conference win apiece already, and a second could put them into co-favorite status in the ACC Coastal with Virginia Tech—a game that will come next week for Miami. (Side note: how about Miami’s schedule? Their first four games are at FSU, GT, at VT, Oklahoma). Last year, the Jackets took this won with nearly 500 yards on the ground and fewer than 50 in the air. You know what they’re going to do.

#19 Nebraska at #13 Virginia Tech. Nebraska has lit up two Sun Belt teams so far, but that won’t impress fans in Lincoln. The Huskers haven’t been ranked above #14 or even beaten a top 20 team in a half-decade, and this is their chance to change that around. Nebraska will be favored in every other game they play until November. For their part, the Hokies still need to make up for the loss to Alabama and get right headed into ACC play, where they’ll also face a manageable schedule.

Florida State at #7 BYU. The difference between this and the Boise State and Utah games is that BYU is a legitimate national title contender. A win here, and they will have two against Cadillac programs, including preseason #3 Oklahoma, and have two more games, both at home, against ranked teams: TCU and Utah. That’s a stronger profile than the one that almost took 2007 West Virginia into the championship game. Suppose only one major conference team runs the table. Considering fellow Mountain West-er Utah has been hugely impressive in two BCS trips, wouldn’t BYU have a case to get in? If they win their big games in style, I say they would. And that makes this game count.

Picks:

Miami (62/38). Miami is better right now than Clemson, and GT barely weathered the Tigers at home. If they get down, they cannot pass their way back into a game.

Nebraska (35/65). I could make either case, but here’s Nebraska’s: They scored 34 points a game last year, even throwing out the weak out of conference schedule, and VT got tripled up in yardage by Alabama. Also, the Huskers have had two weak opponents and follow the Hokies with Louisiana (Lafayette) and a bye, so this is their only focus of the first five weeks of the season.

BYU (73/27). Because BYU’s good this year.

Last Week: 63-59

Year to Date: 133-94, .586

On Week 2

Like last year, the season started out with several good matchups, but teams mostly went back to cupcakes for their second game. There’s only one pairing of ranked teams this week, so we’ll start there.

#3 USC at #8 Ohio State. After last year’s beating, Ohio State looked like they might have been closing the gap. USC lost eight defensive starters and turned to a freshman QB, whereas Ohio State has a veteran D and an extra year of experience for Terrell Pryor. However, they were unconvincing against Navy last week, while USC’s game against San Jose State was too easy to be informative. Obviously, the winner of this game joins Florida and Texas at the forefront of the national title discussion.

Clemson at #15 Georgia Tech. As usual, the ACC is wide open, especially since the preseason division favorites, Virginia Tech and Florida State, lost their openers. These teams each have the talent and experience to push those teams, and Clemson in particular would be looking at a favorable schedule after this game, missing VT and hosting the Seminoles.

#18 Notre Dame at Michigan. Notre Dame is loaded with talent – their last four recruiting classes have been in the national top ten – and, in smoking Nevada, they looked like a team ready to show it. They’ve also put together an uncharacteristically soft schedule, with USC their only opponent in the current Top 25. Michigan is another talented team looking to produce more on the field this year, cruising to an easy opening win of their own. They added two highly rated freshman QBs to an otherwise complete set of returning offensive starters, and Rich Rodriguez’s dual threat offense looked much sharper than last year. A win here could propel them to making noise in the Big Ten, where they will host both Penn State and Ohio State.

Picks:

USC (71/29). The Trojans’ inexperience at key spots is enough to start me thinking about leaning Buckeyes, but then I remember last year was 35-3 and Ohio State struggled last week with a service academy. Sometimes it’s best not to overthink it.

Georgia Tech (66/34). Two to one is about right. Clemson has the ability, and their O-line and run game matches up well. But GT is at home, has more players back and isn’t starting a freshman QB off the baseball team. Clemson may well be better by the end of the year, but I don’t think they’re there yet.

Notre Dame (59/41). I’m not sure what the question is here. Notre Dame is more athletic, more prepared, and looked more impressive in their opener. Michigan seems a year away, like ND last year. This has all the makings of a statement game for the Irish, and I think it would be a much bigger upset than Clemson/GT if it goes the other way.

Last Week: 70-35, .667

Year to Date: 70-35, .667

On CFB 2009, and Week 1

This year, the preview will be combined with the Week 1 preview, for two reasons:

1. I’m bad at picking.
2. This year is pretty straightforward anyway.

Let’s go over what I mean in 2., conference by conference.

The SEC is by far the best, deepest league in the nation, and Florida is by far the best, deepest team in the SEC. Simple.

The Big 12 South has Texas and Oklahoma. Whoever wins that game really shouldn’t lose any other game on their schedule, except of course for Florida in the title game.

The Pac-10, Big Ten and ACC are pinning their hopes almost entirely on USC, Ohio State and Virginia Tech. If recent history is any indication, Ohio State will lose to USC and/or a Big Ten road game, USC will drop some conference game for which they forget to show up, and Tyrod Taylor will lose the Hokies at least one game.

The Big East and Big 12 North are filled with okay teams of approximately equal quality. Nothing to see here.

Boise State and the last one standing among Utah/TCU/BYU are the outsiders with a BCS shot. Also, Notre Dame has a shot at being pretty good.

See? Nothing new here.

Now, on to Week 1. As you may remember, the rules are to pick the three games with the greatest BCS implications, with a special eye to the championship game as a tiebreaker. This usually, but not always, coincides with the best matchups of the week.

Our Week 1 undercard includes #8 Mississippi at Memphis, to see how good the Rebels really are, Miami at #18 Florida State, to see if either of them is actually going to translate all that talent into ACC contention, and #20 Brigham Young at #3 Oklahoma, to see if Oklahoma looks like a national championship contender, and whether BYU might win the MWC and crash the BCS.

#5 Alabama v. #7 Virginia Tech. This is the biggest game on each of these team’s regular season schedule. The ACC lacks the star power for a convincing in-conference win, and Alabama misses Florida and Georgia this year. A big win could get the ball rolling to run the table, like Alabama’s win over Clemson in a similar game last year, and the loser will have a tough time regaining that respect, like VT after the LSU game two years ago.

#16 Oregon at #14 Boise State. One of USC’s potential competitors opens tomorrow night against one of the most impressive BCS busters in recent years. Oregon, to their credit, isn’t playing a single gimme game all year. They follow this one with Purdue and Utah at home before entering Pac-10 play. BSU, on the other hand, hardly has anything but from here on out, playing Miami OH, Bowling Green, UC-Davis and the WAC. If they win, they’re in the early driver’s seat for the small conference BCS bid.

#13 Georgia at #9 Oklahoma State. This game is partially about bragging rights for the conferences. With Florida, Oklahoma and Texas in their divisions, both these teams are longshots for the BCS. This year, things aren’t easier. Georgia must replace a QB and RB taken in the first round of the NFL Draft, and Oklahoma State has difficulty recruiting against Oklahoma and Texas, and lost more players overall. Neither can really afford to start the season with a quality loss.

Picks:

Alabama (70/30). If I’m going to pick an ACC team to take down an SEC contender with that kind of defense, it won’t be one with Tyrod Taylor under center.

Boise State (60/40). There’s a reason most teams won’t schedule road games against good small conference teams, and the Ducks are about to be reminded what it is.

Georgia (35/65). This game could go either way, but Oklahoma Stat’s bowl loss against Oregon gives the image of a team that was overachieving, whereas Georgia seemed flaky but sometimes dominant. They’ll be back this year.

On Dominant Teams, Sunshine, and How There's No Easy Way to Save Texas

Sometimes playoffs take care of themselves. Alabama-Florida, like Ohio State-Michigan two years ago, is and deserves to be a national semifinal. If only Oklahoma and Texas were in different halves of the Big 12, we'd have our other one.

This season is interesting in that my favored playoff system—the top four conference champions go—fails this year for the first time since I started keeping track of it. I leave out top four teams all the time, but usually they already lost a "quarterfinal," meaning they lost directly to a conference opponent ahead of them. This is the first time the system would have left out a team who won a quarterfinal. Poor Texas.

For what it's worth, this year this system would invite the Florida/Alabama winner, Oklahoma, USC and Utah. If Oklahoma and/or USC lose today, Penn State would be first in line and probably Boise State second for their spots. The unhappiest person in the country would probably be that Texas DB who dropped the game-sealing INT on Texas Tech's final drive. Actually, that might be true under any system.

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Florida. Alabama is the only major conference unbeaten, the near-unanimous number one team in the country, and are coming off a statement rivalry game where they shut out Auburn, 36-0. They are also double digit underdogs.

The scary thing is, that's completely fair. Remember when 2005 USC was getting all that best-team-ever press until they lost to Texas? Well, even that team played three relatively close games against the good teams on their schedule. Yes, Florida has a loss, but they are much better than that USC team, and not just because they have a returning Heisman QB too.

Except Mississippi, Florida has beaten everyone on their schedule by over 20 points. They have allowed anyone within four touchdowns since September. Throwing out The Citadel, they have won seven straight games, against the SEC and at Florida State, by an average score of 49-11. This season, even with a loss, is almost as dominant as Meyer's 2004 Utes, only against arguably the best conference in college football. Florida is awesome. In my opinion, Alabama doesn't stand a chance. And neither will Oklahoma.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #20 Missouri. Kerry Meier, who my old roommate and I call "Sunshine" due to his resemblance to the Remember the Titans character, was one of the best QB recruits in Kansas history. Despite his talent, he lost his job last year to headier and more accurate Todd Reesing. So he moved to wide receiver, and he's done a great job. At Arrowhead last week against Mizzou, he had the game of his life, catching 14 passes, including the game-winner with 27 seconds remaining. It was great.

My point is this. I like Sunshine, but he's still a converted QB who went to Kansas to play football. If Missouri can't cover him, can they really expect to get any stops against Oklahoma, a team with 58, 62, 66, 65 and 61 points in their last five games? Of course not.

#17 Boston College vs. #25 Virginia Tech. It's just like last year's ACC Championship Game, only without Matt Ryan or VT's 8 NFL draft picks. Like last year, BC won the regular season version, but Tech has improved more in the meantime.

Picks: Florida (74/26), Oklahoma (84/16), Virginia Tech (50/50)

LW: No picks

LLW: 31-44

Overall Adj. WPct: 951-547, .635

On The Heisman, the Rose Bowl, and the BCS Buster

Shortened post this week, as reporting is on-location from a not even close to top three Ohio State-Michigan game. The three games this week are pretty clear.

#2 Texas Tech at #5 Oklahoma. Definitely shaping up to be the biggest regular game all year. Texas Tech puts themselves in the Big 12 title game, and probably the national championship game, with a win. Oklahoma would create a three-way tie at the top of the Big 12 South, although it's anybody's guess whether they'd take the tiebreaker away from Texas. For losing last, Texas Tech would probably be out.

As a side bonus, it might help decide the Heisman. If Oklahoma wins convincingly, Sam Bradford probably takes the lead. If Texas Tech wins, Harrell gains—although his top receiver Michael Crabtree could make a run if he gets a signature play against both Texas and Oklahoma. Style-wise, we already know they're both all about passing.

#14 BYU at #7 Utah. This decides the minor conference representative to the BCS. Win and in for Utah; lose and in for Boise State. Also, I have no idea who would win the three way tie in the Mountain West. Hopefully TCU, who I still think is the best team.

#15 Michigan State at #8 Penn State. Rose Bowl trip on the line for Penn State, and possibly Michigan State too, if Michigan upsets Ohio State earlier in the day. The key, as always for Michigan State, will be whether they can pass well enough to open space up for Javon Ringer. The Iowa game is the only one, including Ohio State, in which Penn State has really had a problem defending the pass.

Predictions: BYU is a good example of ranking inertia. They have played more close games than either of the other Mountain West elite, haven't beaten anyone close to a good team, and lost by 27 to TCU, but they're a team with tradition and a preseason ranking, so they're still ranked 14^th. Utah has wins over TCU and Pac 10 leader Oregon State. I'm taking the Utes. The other two games are trickier. Oklahoma and Penn State are more talented and at home, so they should be favored, but I think both are bigger favorites than they ought to be. Go, upsets.

Picks: Texas Tech (30/70), Utah (69/31), Michigan State (14/86).

LW: 27-96

Overall Adj. WPct: 920-503, .647

On The Pitiful ACC, and Technicalities

The first sentence of my last post is shamefully unclear. When I wrote "I didn't mean to leave this till now, but I might as well have," what I meant was "I forgot I was going to write about the Thursday game until half an hour before kickoff, but that has to do with the fact that neither this Thursday game nor the Saturday games this week are very exciting." And they're not. Nobody plays anybody. Except kind of in the ACC, where there are enough mediocre teams that half the conference is still in it, so it's almost impossible not to match some of them against each other. When College GameDay is broadcasting from unranked Boston College at #19 Florida State, and you can't really blame them, you know it's a bad week.

#16 North Carolina at Maryland. This is big because of tiebreakers. In one half of the ACC, Maryland is tied with Florida State and Wake Forest with two ACC losses. In the other half, UNC and Miami have two losses. But Maryland has beaten Wake, and UNC has beaten Miami. So the winner of this game controls their fate.

Another quick point I'd like to make about the ACC. One of my friends, a Virginia fan, and I had a serious discussion about whether winning the ACC title is even a good thing. Would you rather be a 20 point underdog in the Orange Bowl or drop to one you might actually win? We were on the verge of deciding it might be best to lose the ACC Championship Game or something until he said something like, "Who am I kidding? We'd get crushed in a reasonable bowl anyway." So the ACC may end up sending a team that wouldn't like their chances against someone like the SEC #5. Thank God it's finally basketball season.

#11 Ohio State at Illinois. I could have put another game here, but there's no unequivocally better one, and this gives me a chance to talk about a fun BCS technicality. Conventional wisdom is that only one small conference team has a chance of making the BCS, because no matter how worthy a second team is, they'll never be a draw on par with a comparable major conference team. But the BCS at-large teams must come from the Top 14, and no conference can send more than two teams.

This is currently Alabama, Texas Tech, Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, USC, Utah, Penn State, Boise State, Georgia, Ohio State, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Ball State. Assuming two of the four at large will come from the SEC and Big 12, the other two must be filled by some combination of Ohio State and small conference teams. The next five offer no help. There's Michigan State, who will drop if they lose to Penn State, North Carolina and Florida State, who will either lose and drop or win the ACC and be in automatically, and BYU and TCU, who are in the Mountain West.

So if Ohio State loses to Illinois or Michigan, the BCS may be forced to take two small conference teams. On the flip side, if they win out, they are almost guaranteed an at-large bid. So if you are a Boise State, Ball State, or Cinderella fan, you should root against the Buckeyes.

Predictions: North Carolina has lost to Virginia Tech when their QB got injured and the backup turned the game over, and to Virginia in overtime after giving up the tying score in the final minute. Maryland has lost to Middle Tennessee State, 31-10 to Virginia, and after being almost doubled up in yardage to Virginia Tech. I know who I'm taking. Illinois is dangerous, as one of those teams who should be much better than they are. But after losing last year, Ohio State can't take them lightly. Coupled with the Buckeyes' dismantling of Michigan State and Northwestern recently, it's hard to pick the upset. Besides, Ohio State-Michigan needs a good plot, and can the Wolverines knock Ohio State out of the BCS is a good one.

Picks: North Carolina (57/43), Ohio State (73/27)

LW: 81-51

Overall AdjWPct: 893-407, .687

On the National Bye Week, Part I

I didn't mean to leave this till now, but I might as well have. VT/Miami is tonight, and both are 3-2 in the ACC Coastal. Embarrassingly, this makes it a huge game for ACC title implications. Since no top 24 teams play each other this week (25 South Carolina at 4 Florida is all we get), it's definitely top three. I'm not really excited about this week.

I don't really know much about these teams, except that my friend the VT alum says the Hokies haven't thrown a TD pass to a wide receiver all year. They're due, right?

Pick: VT (39/61)

LW Results, Real Post: Forthcoming.

On Six Teams With Four Total Losses, Soon To Be Seven

There are several good games this week. But they start tonight, so this is going to be relatively short.

#9 Oklahoma State at #2 Texas Tech. By now, you know all about the Big 12, so I'm just going to add a couple of thoughts from the Texas/Texas Tech game. First, Texas Tech outgained the Longhorns by 200 yards, including 25 more rushing yards on the same number of attempts. TTU outrushing anyone is crazy enough, but Texas? Second, after their touchdown with :01 left, what possible reason did Tech have for kicking the extra point? You'd rather be up six for sure instead of going for seven? How do you possibly justify that? What if Texas had somehow scored? Coupled with the fact that the students had already rushed the field twice, that might have been up there with the most painful losses ever. Why kick? Why?

#1 Alabama at #16 LSU. Both of the top two have difficult games this week (and Penn State at Iowa's no freebie, either). Alabama hasn't been overwhelming since the first half of the Georgia game, playing close games against Kentucky and Mississippi before beating up on reeling Tennessee and hapless Arkansas State. Still, even in their close games they ran out to early leads. Alabama hasn't had to keep their composure in a tight road game, and the fiercely anti-Saban LSU crowd is one that could cause problems. LSU has struggled, but SEC teams, particularly ones with this much raw talent, are always dangerous.

#12 TCU at #8 Utah. For the second time this year, TCU matches up with a team from the Beehive State who has a perfect record and the inside track for a BCS bid. Unlike Brigham Young, Utah knows how good TCU is. The Utes have a very balanced team, with a solid offense and defense, both passing and running. However, unlike the 2004 version, who went unchallenged through the whole season including the bowl, they aren't great at anything. This has shown through in that four of their nine wins have been by one score. Still, they do consistently find a way to win, and they have home field. TCU is more one-dimensional on offense, but unlike Utah, they are great at something. They're only giving up 11 points a game, even counting Oklahoma's 35. They've held seven of ten opponents to a single score.

Predictions: Don't expect a letdown from Texas Tech. If you remember this is the matchup that resulted in 1328 total yards last year. Also remember, Harrell threw for 646 of those yards, but TTU lost anyway on a last-second drop by Crabtree. Those two will remember. This feels like a tough game for Alabama, but that assumes LSU is actually good. Before the Georgia game I argued they weren't, and their 52-38 home loss didn't really change my mind. And when Jarrett Lee makes up for his three picks that game, one of which was returned for a TD, by going 8/20 for 99 yards against Tulane, well, that doesn't inspire confidence. To pick tonight's game, ask yourself one simple question. If TCU had scheduled Weber State and Utah had scheduled Oklahoma on September 27 instead of the reverse, would anyone actually think Utah is nearly as good as TCU? Of course not, because TCU would be undefeated and outscoring teams by like 40-8, whereas Utah would have been considered to have been exposed by the only good team they've played so far, and be lucky to have just one loss.

Picks: Texas Tech (60/40), Alabama (59/41), TCU (51/49)

LW: 131-0

Overall Adj. WPct: 812-356, .695

On the BCS Picture, and Whether Texas Tech Can Do Anything About It

Regular readers (all four or five of you) should remember that the top three games discussed each week in this space are chosen with regard to BCS implications. Now that we're down to about a month of college football regular season, let's take a moment before starting to make a handy-dandy reference guide at how each team and conference's BCS prospects stack up. We'll start with the likely multi-bid leagues, who also include the top national title contenders, and work our way down.

Big 12: Almost certain for two bids. Texas is a title game lock if they win out, with whoever's standing from Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State looking strong for an at-large bid. If Texas Tech wins out, they might not pass Alabama and Penn State, but considering this would involve beating Texas and Oklahoma, they might. A three way tie at 7-1 in the Big 12 South would result in the highest coaches' poll team going, which would probably be Oklahoma. On the off chance the North champion wins the Big 12 title game, whoever of Oklahoma and Texas didn't play in that game will probably go.

SEC: Almost certain for two bids, also. This one's really simple. If Alabama goes undefeated, they'll go to the national championship. If they go undefeated until losing the SEC championship game but lose to the Florida/Georgia winner (hereafter FGW), they'll probably still get the at-large. If a one or two loss SEC West champ loses to FGW, then both FGW and FGL will go (unless FGL loses again in between). If the SEC West champ beats FGW, then FGL will probably jump them and go, which hardly seems fair. See? Simple.

Big Ten: Penn State needs to win their last three and get help, but I think as of right now they have a better chance of playing in the national title game than anyone. They only have to get past Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State to finish the regular season undefeated. If Texas or Alabama loses to any of Texas Tech/Big 12 Champ/LSU/Auburn/FGW/other, PSU is back in business. Also, Ohio State is probably win out and at-large. If they drop another game, the Big Ten might be out of luck.

Pac 10: USC is the clear conference favorite, and are probably second behind Oklahoma in the line of one loss teams. I don't think they should pass a potential one-loss Texas or Alabama, but they would. Oregon has an outside shot at an at-large birth, especially if USC were to sneak into the title game and the Rose Bowl wanted a Pac 10 replacement, but it's unlikely. This conference is really soft.

Big East/ACC: These conferences are disasters. There's not a BCS-worthy team in the bunch, which unfortunately won't keep them from sending two teams. The Big East is favoring West Virginia, Pitt and maybe Connecticut, with temporary favorite South Florida already 1-2 in conference. For the ACC, literally 10 of 12 teams are still in play for the conference title, with one of the other two being Clemson, who is the only team in the whole conference with BCS-level talent top to bottom. Terrible.

Others: There will almost certainly be someone from a minor conference involved in the title discussion. If the Utah/TCU winner wins out, they'll go. Boise State could go undefeated and miss out. Having beaten Oklahoma in the same situation two years ago, they'll complain, but maybe the WAC shouldn't suck so much. They could be bailed out if Utah beats TCU but drops the BYU finale. If all three stumble, Tulsa or, somehow, Ball State will sneak in. They're both way better than anyone they play, and could keep bubbling up the rankings if they keep winning.

If the season ended today, here's how the major bowls would most likely look:

BCS: Texas-Alabama

Rose: USC-Penn State

Sugar: Georgia-West Virginia

Fiesta: Oklahoma-Utah

Orange: Florida State-Ohio State

But it doesn't. So let's go to the games that can change it.

#1 Texas at #7 Texas Tech. We know all about Texas. They score points. Lots. Against everybody. And recently, they've always scored a lot of points against Texas Tech in particular, averaging 48 points in their last five matchups. The Red Raiders score in bunches too, most spectacularly recording touchdowns on eight straight drives (except one halted by halftime) to open the Kansas game last week. While Colt has been unstoppable, his last three opposite numbers have combined for 72% completions and 8 TDs against the Horns themselves, and Graham Harrell is more efficient then any of them. As usual, don't expect a lot of stops.

#6 Georgia vs. #8 Florida at Jacksonville. Two more teams I've said a lot about already. Since halftime of the Alabama game, the Bulldogs have been very good, holding down Tennessee and Vanderbilt with defense and putting up a whopping 52 points at LSU. For their own part, Florida has beaten Arkansas, LSU and Kentucky by 119 combined points since the Ole Miss loss. These teams also have a traditional rivalry beefed up by Georgia's full-team celebration early in a big win last year. Thanks to the talent and the emotion, this game, while featuring one-loss teams instead of undefeateds, will almost certainly be played at a higher level than Texas-Texas Tech.

West Virginia at #25 Connecticut. Yep, one of these games. Someone has to win the Big East, and this game's winner will be the new favorite. Both of these teams have been amazingly up and down. WVU was outgained by Syracuse in a 17-6 win; Connecticut both managed to beat Louisville while being nearly doubled up in yards and outgain North Carolina but lose 38-12. And that was in consecutive weeks. Bottom line: who knows which version of either of these teams will show up? And even if one brings their A-game, it might just lose it for them.

Predictions: Sorry, Colt. Texas Tech has the ability to execute on offense, the Longhorns are both mentally exhausted and have to feel like they're mostly out of the woods by now, and you know Mike Leach's team has saved every wrinkle they've ever practiced on both sides of the ball for just this occasion. It's time. In the SEC, you don't give up 500 yards and 38 points to LSU and expect to stop a rested, prepared and extremely motivated Florida the next week. It's that simple. For West Virginia, Noel Devine's Steve Slaton impression has been getting better by the week. They have no business losing to UConn.

Picks: Texas Tech (40/60), Florida (69/31), West Virginia (60/40)

LW: 121-0

Overall Adj. WPct: 681-356, .657

I didn't want to give away my picks on TT and Florida ahead of time, but here's my likeliest end of season scenario:

BCS: Penn State-Oklahoma

Rose: USC-Alabama

Sugar: Florida-West Virginia

Fiesta: Texas-TCU

Orange: Florida State-Ohio State

On the Top Games From the Top Conferences, and Fun with the BCS Rules

Here we go again. It seems like we've always got a Big 12 undefeated in a big game, either Ohio State or Penn State, and another pair of ranked Big 12 teams (this week, #8 Texas Tech-#23 Kansas) shunted off to the side. Got to love a season where a big SEC game barely makes the list, though.

Oh, before I start, a quick word about rankings. Originally, I was using the AP rankings because they're the ones quoted on ESPN. Then recently, I switched to the Coaches' Poll because it's in the BCS and the AP isn't. Starting this week, I will quote the BCS Top 25.

#6 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas. The Longhorns are up to their third of four consecutive games against top 12 teams (if Texas Tech wins this week), and they've looked awfully good twice so far. Against Oklahoma and Missouri, Texas has put up over 1000 yards, converted 64% of third downs, and committed no turnovers. Also, Colt completed 85% of his passes. Oklahoma State features a terrific offense themselves. Their best player is probably WR Dez Bryant, who has caught 45 of Oklahoma State's 97 completed passes and 11 of 14 passing touchdowns, but more importantly they average 283 yards rushing. That will be interesting, since Texas has held every opponent except UTEP under 50 yards rushing. Not that most of them have tried.

Not that it has anything to do with this game per se, but there's one more thing I just found out about. Suppose all the national title contenders except Texas take a loss between now and the end of the season, bringing Oklahoma back up to #2. Then suppose Texas loses a heartbreaker to multi-loss Missouri (or Kansas) in the Big 12 title game. They might not drop that far in the polls, and certainly with their brutal Big 12 South plus Kansas and Missouri plus the better one again schedule, the computers will still love them. If the final BCS puts Oklahoma 1^st and Texas 2^nd, that's the first priority. The Big 12 Champion would be barred from the BCS entirely. This won't happen, but it could.

#3 Penn State at #9 Ohio State. Both teams look pretty darn impressive now. Penn State has been good in every dimension. With only 2 INTs and 5 sacks, QB Daryll Clark has been taking care of the ball, and the balanced offense and D have done the rest. The run D has had some trouble against the mobility of Illinois and Michigan, which is a good sign for Ohio State: they have to be able to run. Pryor has still never had to throw 20 passes in a game.

#7 Georgia at #13 LSU. Both teams look to recover into the conference and national title races in the first of a pair of major games. Next week Georgia plays Florida, while the week after LSU hosts Alabama. These are balanced but not overwhelming squads, getting through the SEC efficiently but unspectacularly, except for tripping up against the other's big remaining hurdle.

It's also worth pointing out that while this is a national championship elimination game for both, Georgia but not LSU would still retain control of their own conference destiny with a loss. LSU would drop two games behind Alabama, whereas Georgia would only be one down to Florida, with a chance to win the head-to-head and get the tiebreaker.

Predictions: Texas has too much more talent than Oklahoma State to lose at home. Also, the Cowboys' defense hasn't shown a lot of evidence they're up to slowing Colt & Co. down. Penn State-Ohio State should be a great game, but I like PSU due to their demonstrated ability to make adjustments quickly. OSU is more limited in that regard simply due to personnel (i.e. Pryor). I also think Georgia will beat LSU, simply because LSU isn't that good. The Tigers haven't had a really convincing performance yet. Here's their resume: they've crushed a I-AA team and North Texas, both of which Sun Belt teams regularly do, beat 2-5 Mississippi State by 10, a team Georgia Tech and Tennessee both beat by 30, eked past Auburn and South Carolina, who are each 2-3 in SEC play, and got crushed by Florida. What's top 13 about that?

Picks: Texas (77/23), Penn State (54/46), Georgia (48/52)

LW: 119-0

Overall Adj. WPct: 560-356, .611

On Missouri, Michigan State and the Mountain West

Halfway through the season, we have ten teams left with a zero in the loss column. These break down nicely into three groups: five BCS busters (BYU, Utah, Boise State, Tulsa, Ball State), a pair of Cadillac programs (Alabama, Penn State), and half the Big 12 South (Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State). The fact that there's only five teams in the latter two groups has to give hope to the former, at least as far as finishing top 12 is concerned. Whether they can think bigger we'll get to in a little bit.

Meanwhile, this week's meaningful but "other" games, as usual, come in two types. There are battles of okay teams in the barely okay ACC, Wake-Maryland and VT-BC, and of better teams in much better conferences, Vanderbilt-Georgia and Kansas-Oklahoma.

#12 Missouri at #1 Texas. This is this week's game with the biggest national title implications by far. Texas is playing the second of an absurdly difficult four week stretch that ends with Oklahoma State and at Texas Tech. Even if they go 2-1 in these next three, three extra wins to close the season and a win in the Big 12 title game could still land them in the national championship game, as long as the loss doesn't keep them from winning the division. If they win all three, Colt will win the Heisman, and people will start anointing them as among the best ever. (Just so we're clear, this would be ridiculously premature. I'm just saying, people would). Missouri doesn't play Oklahoma or Texas Tech, so after the meltdown against Oklahoma State, this is their last regular season chance to prove themselves to voters. Knock off Texas, and Chase Daniel and the Tigers are back in the national picture. A second straight loss, and their hold on the Big 12 North gets shaky.

This is a tough matchup for Texas. The Longhorns are really good at stopping the run, which doesn't help all that much against Mizzou. Bradford and Oklahoma had 387 yards and 5 TDs last week, and Daniel, with targets Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman, is almost equally dangerous. However, if Illinois and Oklahoma State are any indication, Missouri isn't much for getting stops themselves.

#11 Ohio State at #17 Michigan State. Besides PSU, these are the only two teams without a Big Ten loss. Since the USC disaster, Ohio State has gotten back on track, if not usually very prettily. QB Terrelle Pryor may be a future star, but for now the Buckeyes can't count on their passing game at all. Michigan State has been getting along similarly, recovering from an early Pac 10 loss (Cal) with a win streak keyed by defense and a star RB, with Javon Ringer playing the Beanie Wells role. Or maybe it's Wells playing the Ringer role, since the Michigan State senior already has over 1100 yards. Unbelievably, he's averaging over 35 carries a game. He's already over last season's total carries.

#8 BYU at #24 TCU. Brigham Young actually has an outside shot at reaching the national title game this year. Like Utah four years ago, they've reached the top 10 by midseason, but unlike those Utes, BYU has two conference games against ranked teams to prove themselves. Utah went 13-0 and got Alex Smith picked #1 without playing a team that got within two touchdowns of them, but none of their opponents really should've. With this game and the season finale against Utah, BYU has two worthy opponents to push them past one-loss BCS teams.

Of course, they have to win first. And what do we really know about BYU? They were an overzealous official's call away from overtime with 0-5 Washington. They made their reputation by dominating shutouts against UCLA and Wyoming in consecutive weeks, but in retrospect, so what? I know their strength is in the passing attack, but with the big leads they've gotten, you'd expect they might have outrushed Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Utah State or New Mexico. Nope. Still, they are outscoring opponents 37-10.

We know quite a bit about TCU. They're good, but not that good, as demonstrated by six easy wins over bad to mediocre teams and one big loss to Oklahoma. Offensively, they're about as run-heavy as BYU is the opposite. Still, they're outscoring opponents 34-11.

Predictions: Missouri-Texas is going to have a lot of points. Both this year and last, Missouri hasn't shown the defensive ability to stop good teams, which means Chase is going to have to be back to perfect. In Austin, that's a lot to ask. Ringer is going to have to run out of steam at some point, and Ohio State has the defense to make it soon. And tonight, I think BYU is going to be exposed. I'm not alone. The Horned Frogs are favored.

Picks: Texas (66/34), Ohio State (61/39), TCU (54/46)

LW: 133-0

Overall Adj. WPct: 441-356, .553

On the Red River Shootout, and Everything Else

This week has a bunch of matchups that looked better on paper in the preseason than they do now, and one gem that has turned out to be even bigger.

It would have been reasonable to believe Arizona State-USC, Tennessee-Georgia, Purdue-Ohio State, UCLA-Oregon, Nebraska-Texas Tech or even the so far boring Clemson-Wake Forest game going on right now to feature two good teams instead of one. But they don't. On the other side, a recovering Notre Dame and suddenly decent North Carolina play probably the biggest game all season between two teams that combined for seven wins last year. Another of the lesser games that has grown even more in stature is the Saturday night game between Oklahoma State and Missouri. Overshadowed by the four Big 12 undefeateds in the top 8, the 5-0 Cowboys have posted 56, 57, 55 and 56 points in their last four games. Like the SEC matchups last week, this game could be one of the top three in quality. It just doesn't make the cut because as good as they are, does Okie State really have a shot at the Big 12 South? Along with Texas Tech, they'd have to get past:

#1 Oklahoma vs. #5 Texas. What's to say? This is the kind of matchup that make sports fun. A neutral site game between traditional rivals, both of whom are in the Top 5, outscore opponents by 36 points a game and have Heisman candidate quarterbacks with absurd numbers. Both teams even have the same potential weakness: rush offense. The Longhorns' leading rusher by far is QB Colt McCoy, which is fine for UTEP but not so much Oklahoma, and the Sooners were themselves held under two yards a carry in their one tough matchup against TCU.

#4 LSU at #11 Florida. The Red River Shootout must be big to overshadow this game, you know, the one where the national champs visit the Heisman winner? Both teams are ridiculously good, but neither has been quite as overwhelming as they'd like. Florida gave away the Mississippi game with three turnovers, 1-11 third down conversions, an 86 yard TD allowed in the fourth quarter, a big fourth down decision gone wrong and a blocked extra point. LSU survived Auburn on the road and struggled to put away Mississippi State last week. Both of those conference games saw the Tigers allow over twenty points. It won't be easier in the Swamp.

#6 Penn State at Wisconsin. This game gets the nod in this spot because it feels more urgent. Oklahoma State has three big chances at redemption if they lose this week, but with two straight conference losses in winnable games already, this could pretty much be Wisconsin's season. And while a Missouri loss would still leave them in the Big 12 North driver's seat, a loss here and Penn State would be facing a must-must-win situation two weeks from now in the Horseshoe. To win, the one-dimensional Badgers have to be able to run. Penn State has only faced one team so far with a shot at establishing a run game, and Illinois did. But they still shut down the Illini after the first quarter, and haven't had any problems except then. PSU has also been explosive on offense and special teams.

Predictions: Oklahoma-Texas should be a great game, but I like the Longhorns. That TCU game raised a couple of red flags. Oklahoma had 56 yards rushing, took 4 sacks and was only 19/34. They coasted through anyway with big gains and turnovers, but with Texas' athletes and ball protection, they can't count on that this time. And besides, like I was ever going to pick against Colt. Despite their records, Florida is better than LSU. They had more than their share of mistakes and bad luck in their loss, while LSU has been struggling for the simpler reason that something like seven of last year's starters are in the NFL now. Wisconsin seems like a natural choice here: they're always good at home (in fact Penn State has scored three points in each of their last two visits), they're by far the best defense Penn State has seen this year, and a desperate team is a dangerous team. Of course, the other relevant piece of history is that both teams are very similar to the ones that played Penn State's 38-7 win last year.

Picks: Texas (32/68), Florida (68/32), Penn State (67/33)

LW: 89-0

Overall Adj. WPct: 308-356, .464

On A Week With a Lot of Okay Games

To this point in the season, most of the focus has been on which conferences are stronger than others. Now, five weeks in, teams have most of their byes and non-conference games out of the way, and we start really sorting teams within their conferences. An early loss still leaves you the chance to win your conference and get back up the rankings, but we're starting to get to the point where teams can knock themselves out of the BCS for good.

In my mind, there are nine really meaningful games this Saturday, and none of them are in the ACC or Big East. (The Big East's game was Pitt over South Florida Thursday night, which pretty much confirmed the four at-larges are indeed coming from the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten and non-BCS highest ranked). Also, none of them are real headliners.

The six undercards come in three natural pairs. The first pair, Arizona State-Cal and Illinois-Michigan, are between talented and underachieving teams that can climb back into contention with a win. These teams, all with high hopes, are a combined 9-7 right now, but only one of those seven losses came in conference. And no one at the high end of these two conferences has looked invincible. The second pair, Penn State-Purdue and Texas Tech-Kansas State, put relatively untested teams with perfect records in their first real test on the road, against a team they should beat but is dangerous. The third pair, Auburn-Vanderbilt and Kentucky-Alabama, are games that would easily go in the top three if we were willing to believe Vandy and Kentucky, both undefeated, actually had a chance to finish ahead of Florida or Georgia. Also, since Auburn has a direct loss to LSU and visits Alabama in the season finale, every game for them is now do-or-die.

#23 Oregon at #9 USC. Thanks to Boise State and Oregon State, this probably isn't the best game of the week, but it's still the most important, for one simple reason: who can keep the winner out of the Rose Bowl? A second conference loss would (probably) finish USC, but since the Trojans would probably still beat everyone else, Oregon would have that much more of a cushion. On the other hand, if USC can win convincingly, it's the first step back into the national title game—Arizona State, California and Notre Dame are all at home as well, and the SEC and Big 12 have a ridiculous number of games between their top teams.

#14 Ohio State at #18 Wisconsin. Wisconsin had a masterpiece of failure last week, giving up 27 straight second half points to Michigan to lose in spite of forcing five turnovers and outgaining the Wolverines by almost 50%. They should be ready to make amends. Ohio State, though, thanks to promoting Pryor and getting Beanie Wells back, have a whole new offensive backfield than the one that got nowhere against USC. With a win, both teams would be able to set their sights on a home date with Penn State for the conference.

#4 Missouri at Nebraska. An upgraded version of the Texas Tech and Penn State games, this road trip is Missouri's biggest hurdle to winning the Big 12 North. Kansas is better than Nebraska, true, but the Jayhawks struggle running the ball and also have to play Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. It's almost impossible to believe they can overcome that schedule. Nebraska may have trouble keeping up, but how much do we really know about the Tigers? Their only dangerous opponent so far, Illinois, put up over 500 yards. Bo Pelini, the Huskers' coach, came from the DC spot at LSU, and Nebraska hasn't lost to Mizzou in Lincoln in over 30 years.

Predictions: This could be a letdown for USC, except they just had one. They've got to be prepared; no way does USC get swept by the state of Oregon. Ohio State has to be worried that they're bringing a true freshman QB into Camp Randall Stadium, but fortunately Wisconsin hasn't shown a consistently two-dimensional offense either. Ohio State loves traditional football, and with a power RB and shaky dropback QB, Wisconsin fits the bill. Despite their shaky D, Missouri has Chase Daniel. Until Nebraska plays consistent defense against a good opponent, I'm going to remember that last year, Daniel and Kansas' Todd Reesing put up 71% completions, 765 passing yards and 117 points against the Cornhuskers last year.

Picks: USC (83/17), Ohio State (52/48), Missouri (76/24)

LW: 27-70

Overall Adj. WPct: 219-356, .381

A Note on How Bad My Picks Have Been, For John Six: One thing I have been doing that hurts me is picking the games before looking up the actual odds. The idea is that I didn't want to bias myself, but I also create an artifical correlation between favorites winning and how I look. Since picking all underdogs has been a winning strategy so far this year, it has pushed my winning percentage down. The way I've been picking, I don't think I should be making things harder on myself. From now on, I'm looking at the percentages before I pick. This week, I'm sticking with the favorites anyway, although the 83/17 made me at least look twice at Oregon.

Still, I don't want to give the impression that's my only problem. Looking back over it, there's only twice I would have switched to the underdog based on percentages: I thought Georgia would beat Alabama, but I would have taken Alabama at 70/30, and, as you can tell from what I wrote at the time, I thought the Ohio State-USC game was a lot closer than 80/20. If I'd picked the Tide and the Buckeyes, I would trade in a -70 and +20 for the reverse, which would leave me at 269-306. And .468, while not as bad, is still bad. I'll try to do better.

On the Opening at #1

Since I'm writing this one Saturday, we already know what one of this week's biggest three games was. USC losing.

This makes the race pretty clear cut. If you win out in one of the two good leagues, you're definitely in. Next up would be an undefeated Big Ten champion, then (assuming no 12-0 from USF or Wake Forest) one-loss USC, then a one-loss SEC or Big 12 team. Then whoever.

So, the big games this week are SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten undefeated favorites playing ranked opponents.

#8 Alabama at #3 Georgia. Both of these teams have shown some vulnerabilities on offense. Georgia struggled to score at South Carolina, and Alabama didn't score an offensive TD against Tulane. However, both have played amazing defense, especially against the run. This is particularly troubling for Alabama, since QB John Parker Wilson hasn't proved he's able to beat someone on his own. But this would be a great place to start.

#22 Illinois at #12 Penn State. Illinois is one of those weird teams that hangs with Missouri then can barely put away Louisiana-Lafayette. Who knows what they're going to do week by week. Penn State is one of those teams that looks great but still hasn't played anybody yet. Well, I guess we have to count Oregon State as somebody now.

#24 TCU at #2 Oklahoma. Oklahoma better watch out. Like USC, they have often looked unstoppable right up to the point they lose a game they really shouldn't. For now, Sam Bradford doesn't look like he's going to let that happen. But TCU and their whole conference are red-hot. If the Horned Frogs win this, forget about whether the Mountain West champ can crash the BCS; it's whether their runner-up can grab an at-large.

Predictions: Oklahoma has the athletes to handle TCU's run game, and the Sooners have been playing against decent talent, so they're ready for a good D. Illinois hasn't shown they can put a full game together, so Penn State has to be favored. The SEC showdown is the most interesting. Wilson is capable of pulling it out, but it would have to be perfect. You can't count on perfect.

Picks: Georgia(70/30), Oklahoma(88/12), Penn State(85/15)

LY: 29-110

Overall Adj. WPct: 192-286

On the Real Opening Weekend for the SEC

The SEC has a couple big games this week, and we shouldn't doubt their quality. Along with the Big 12, they put some more distance between themselves and the other conferences last week. Those two conferences had nine teams in last week's top 12, and none of them were frauds. Five won easily, two won close games to lesser teams but in conference games, Kansas lost a heartbreaker to ranked South Florida on the road and Texas was postponed by a hurricane. Meanwhile out West, it's a good thing USC trounced Ohio State, because otherwise the Pac 10 would be back with the Big East and ACC. Cal lost to Maryland, Oregon squeezed past Purdue, and they went 0-4 against the Mountain West, with Arizona State losing a home game to UNLV and UCLA losing 59-0 at BYU. With such a strong performance by the MWC, we've got to imagine the BCS computers will like the BYU/Utah winner down the road.

This week's biggest matchups are in the Southeast, but the undercards are all over. Georgia goes cross-country to visit Arizona State, which would be a lot bigger if the Sun Devils hadn't choked last week. Still, Georgia's offense was shaky against South Carolina and they will be far from home. Virginia Tech-North Carolina is an intriguing early game in the ACC Coastal race, which is kind of sad. UNC is actually favored in that one. Most intriguing might be Boise State-Oregon. The Ducks' win over Purdue wasn't pretty, but it leaves them undefeated and USC's prime challenger. Boise hasn't played anyone good yet, but they've had two perfect regular seasons in the last four years, meaning that's a program which has talent and knows how to win.

#6 LSU at #10 Auburn. These are very similar teams, and it goes beyond that they're both Tigers. Both teams have dominating defenses and questionable pass offenses. LSU has put up 41 points twice, but against cupcakes and without a need for passing much. Auburn has played Southern Miss and at Mississippi State, winning the latter game 3-2. So they could have used a passing game, too. It's also worth pointing out the home team has won this game each time for several years, but it's almost always been close.

#18 Wake Forest at #24 Florida State. At 12-5 in conference, Wake Forest beats out BC, Clemson and, indeed, Florida State as the past two seasons' top team of the ACC Atlantic. This year, these two join North Carolina as the conference's only undefeateds through three weeks. Wake dominated Baylor and squeaked past Ole Miss; Florida State picked on two I-AA teams. Don't forget that last time Wake came to Tallahassee, they hung an embarrassing 30-0 on the Seminoles.

#3 Florida at Tennessee. Tennessee may have a loss, and Tebow may have a Heisman, but this is still a very dangerous game for UF. Tennessee blew the UCLA game but clearly outplayed the Bruins, and anyway rebounded with a convincing rout of UAB. On the other hand, Florida has had an extra week to prepare, their defense and special teams have scored nearly twice as many points as they've allowed and RB/WR Percy Harvin is apparently back to 100%. That's tough.

Predictions: Auburn-LSU should be a spiritual successor to two years ago's 7-3 game (in which, by the way, JaMarcus Russell played, fully healthy. Nice pick Oakland). I like Auburn's experience, early tests and home field to carry them. Wake has been playing over their heads and Florida State has great athletes, and may have finally found a QB. In the last matchup, it's impossible to pick against everything the Gators have going for them.

Picks: Auburn (45/55), Florida State (65/35), Florida (71/29)

LW: 65-41

Overall Adj WPct: 163-176, .481