There are several good games this week. But they start tonight, so this is going to be relatively short.
#9 Oklahoma State at #2 Texas Tech. By now, you know all about the Big 12, so I'm just going to add a couple of thoughts from the Texas/Texas Tech game. First, Texas Tech outgained the Longhorns by 200 yards, including 25 more rushing yards on the same number of attempts. TTU outrushing anyone is crazy enough, but Texas? Second, after their touchdown with :01 left, what possible reason did Tech have for kicking the extra point? You'd rather be up six for sure instead of going for seven? How do you possibly justify that? What if Texas had somehow scored? Coupled with the fact that the students had already rushed the field twice, that might have been up there with the most painful losses ever. Why kick? Why?
#1 Alabama at #16 LSU. Both of the top two have difficult games this week (and Penn State at Iowa's no freebie, either). Alabama hasn't been overwhelming since the first half of the Georgia game, playing close games against Kentucky and Mississippi before beating up on reeling Tennessee and hapless Arkansas State. Still, even in their close games they ran out to early leads. Alabama hasn't had to keep their composure in a tight road game, and the fiercely anti-Saban LSU crowd is one that could cause problems. LSU has struggled, but SEC teams, particularly ones with this much raw talent, are always dangerous.
#12 TCU at #8 Utah. For the second time this year, TCU matches up with a team from the Beehive State who has a perfect record and the inside track for a BCS bid. Unlike Brigham Young, Utah knows how good TCU is. The Utes have a very balanced team, with a solid offense and defense, both passing and running. However, unlike the 2004 version, who went unchallenged through the whole season including the bowl, they aren't great at anything. This has shown through in that four of their nine wins have been by one score. Still, they do consistently find a way to win, and they have home field. TCU is more one-dimensional on offense, but unlike Utah, they are great at something. They're only giving up 11 points a game, even counting Oklahoma's 35. They've held seven of ten opponents to a single score.
Predictions: Don't expect a letdown from Texas Tech. If you remember this is the matchup that resulted in 1328 total yards last year. Also remember, Harrell threw for 646 of those yards, but TTU lost anyway on a last-second drop by Crabtree. Those two will remember. This feels like a tough game for Alabama, but that assumes LSU is actually good. Before the Georgia game I argued they weren't, and their 52-38 home loss didn't really change my mind. And when Jarrett Lee makes up for his three picks that game, one of which was returned for a TD, by going 8/20 for 99 yards against Tulane, well, that doesn't inspire confidence. To pick tonight's game, ask yourself one simple question. If TCU had scheduled Weber State and Utah had scheduled Oklahoma on September 27 instead of the reverse, would anyone actually think Utah is nearly as good as TCU? Of course not, because TCU would be undefeated and outscoring teams by like 40-8, whereas Utah would have been considered to have been exposed by the only good team they've played so far, and be lucky to have just one loss.
Picks: Texas Tech (60/40), Alabama (59/41), TCU (51/49)
LW: 131-0
Overall Adj. WPct: 812-356, .695
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