The SEC has a couple big games this week, and we shouldn't doubt their quality. Along with the Big 12, they put some more distance between themselves and the other conferences last week. Those two conferences had nine teams in last week's top 12, and none of them were frauds. Five won easily, two won close games to lesser teams but in conference games, Kansas lost a heartbreaker to ranked South Florida on the road and Texas was postponed by a hurricane. Meanwhile out West, it's a good thing USC trounced Ohio State, because otherwise the Pac 10 would be back with the Big East and ACC. Cal lost to Maryland, Oregon squeezed past Purdue, and they went 0-4 against the Mountain West, with Arizona State losing a home game to UNLV and UCLA losing 59-0 at BYU. With such a strong performance by the MWC, we've got to imagine the BCS computers will like the BYU/Utah winner down the road.
This week's biggest matchups are in the Southeast, but the undercards are all over. Georgia goes cross-country to visit Arizona State, which would be a lot bigger if the Sun Devils hadn't choked last week. Still, Georgia's offense was shaky against South Carolina and they will be far from home. Virginia Tech-North Carolina is an intriguing early game in the ACC Coastal race, which is kind of sad. UNC is actually favored in that one. Most intriguing might be Boise State-Oregon. The Ducks' win over Purdue wasn't pretty, but it leaves them undefeated and USC's prime challenger. Boise hasn't played anyone good yet, but they've had two perfect regular seasons in the last four years, meaning that's a program which has talent and knows how to win.
#6 LSU at #10 Auburn. These are very similar teams, and it goes beyond that they're both Tigers. Both teams have dominating defenses and questionable pass offenses. LSU has put up 41 points twice, but against cupcakes and without a need for passing much. Auburn has played Southern Miss and at Mississippi State, winning the latter game 3-2. So they could have used a passing game, too. It's also worth pointing out the home team has won this game each time for several years, but it's almost always been close.
#18 Wake Forest at #24 Florida State. At 12-5 in conference, Wake Forest beats out BC, Clemson and, indeed, Florida State as the past two seasons' top team of the ACC Atlantic. This year, these two join North Carolina as the conference's only undefeateds through three weeks. Wake dominated Baylor and squeaked past Ole Miss; Florida State picked on two I-AA teams. Don't forget that last time Wake came to Tallahassee, they hung an embarrassing 30-0 on the Seminoles.
#3 Florida at Tennessee. Tennessee may have a loss, and Tebow may have a Heisman, but this is still a very dangerous game for UF. Tennessee blew the UCLA game but clearly outplayed the Bruins, and anyway rebounded with a convincing rout of UAB. On the other hand, Florida has had an extra week to prepare, their defense and special teams have scored nearly twice as many points as they've allowed and RB/WR Percy Harvin is apparently back to 100%. That's tough.
Predictions: Auburn-LSU should be a spiritual successor to two years ago's 7-3 game (in which, by the way, JaMarcus Russell played, fully healthy. Nice pick Oakland). I like Auburn's experience, early tests and home field to carry them. Wake has been playing over their heads and Florida State has great athletes, and may have finally found a QB. In the last matchup, it's impossible to pick against everything the Gators have going for them.
Picks: Auburn (45/55), Florida State (65/35), Florida (71/29)
LW: 65-41
Overall Adj WPct: 163-176, .481
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