On Hawaii, Conference Almost-Championship Games, and the SEC Again

Often, conference championship games are unofficial. At this point in the season, a number of conferences come down to one game. Alternatively, conferences with championship games often play de facto conference semifinals, as two division rivals play for the right to make the championship game.

This year, we are looking at several such games. Unfortunately, none of them are this week. This makes today a waiting action, a chance to look around and wait for the battles of the next two weeks—or a major upset that will change the landscape.

Basically, here’s where we stand now. Each conference/division—except one—has either the favorite who has already survived its main rivals, or else the decisive game to be played:

Pac-10: Oregon
Big 12 S: Oklahoma
Big 12 N: Kansas-Missouri
Big 10: Ohio State-Michigan
Big East: WV-Connecticut
ACC A: BC-Clemson
ACC C: Virginia-Virginia Tech
SEC W: LSU
SEC E: ???

Not surprisingly, we’ll take two of our three games today from the SEC East.

#18 Auburn at #10 Georgia. For proof of the SEC’s depth, look at these two teams. Both were left for dead early. Auburn lost to South Florida before that was understandable and followed up by a loss to Mississippi State that still isn’t understandable. Since then, they’ve beaten Florida in the Swamp, almost beaten LSU in Death Valley, and cruised otherwise. Georgia lost an early game to Spurrier’s Gamecocks, rebounded with three wins that included the thriller over Alabama, then promptly got blown out of Neyland Stadium by Jekyll-and-Hyde Tennessee. Georgia then salvaged the season by taking out Florida, lifting them to their current place in the top 10 and tied for the SEC East lead. However, because they lost to UT, they lose the tiebreaker, despite the fact that they beat the teams (Florida and Alabama) that themselves beat the Volunteers by a combined 63 points. By the way, neither Georgia nor Tennessee has played Kentucky yet.

#15 Florida at South Carolina. Even though Tennessee is technically in the driver’s seat right now, and they also play a tough opponent this week in Arkansas, there’s a reason Georgia and Florida’s games are more important. If LSU were to win all the way into the national championship game, which is the likeliest scenario, Tennessee would almost surely not be ranked high enough after a loss to the Tigers to make a BCS bowl. But if Georgia wins the division instead and then loses a close game to LSU, they might earn a Sugar Bowl invite. Most interestingly, if Florida beats SC and Florida State, they could finish behind Georgia or Tennessee, miss the conference title game, but still be the second-highest rated team in the conference after an LSU win, backing into a BCS bid. Most fun of all, if all three said teams lose today, the six-way tie at 4-4 is still a possibility.

Fresno State at #16 Hawaii. Hawaii needs to break the top 12 of the BCS standings to earn an invitation, and so far their schedule hasn’t done them any favors. This is the first of their four toughest games, which should be enough to lift them there, provided of course none of these teams beat them. Fresno is a reasonable start, a tough team whose losses have come at Texas A&M and Oregon and at home to Boise State. If this game was on the mainland I’d like the upset. But at home, Hawaii is deadly. They have to be, because to climb the rankings, style points count.

Predictions: In the SEC, sometimes you just have to go with who has more left in the tank. Georgia’s last two weeks have been a big, emotional win over Florida and a surprisingly difficult test against Troy. Auburn has rolled over Tennessee Tech. Also, we know Auburn fears no road game. Florida drew Vandy after the Georgia matchup, while South Carolina dropped a heartbreaker to Tennessee and got steamrolled by Arkansas’ McFadden/Jones one-two punch. On Oahu, Boise or Washington might be able to pull one out, but I think Fresno doesn’t quite have enough.

Picks: Auburn, Florida, Hawaii