On Dominant Teams, Sunshine, and How There's No Easy Way to Save Texas

Sometimes playoffs take care of themselves. Alabama-Florida, like Ohio State-Michigan two years ago, is and deserves to be a national semifinal. If only Oklahoma and Texas were in different halves of the Big 12, we'd have our other one.

This season is interesting in that my favored playoff system—the top four conference champions go—fails this year for the first time since I started keeping track of it. I leave out top four teams all the time, but usually they already lost a "quarterfinal," meaning they lost directly to a conference opponent ahead of them. This is the first time the system would have left out a team who won a quarterfinal. Poor Texas.

For what it's worth, this year this system would invite the Florida/Alabama winner, Oklahoma, USC and Utah. If Oklahoma and/or USC lose today, Penn State would be first in line and probably Boise State second for their spots. The unhappiest person in the country would probably be that Texas DB who dropped the game-sealing INT on Texas Tech's final drive. Actually, that might be true under any system.

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Florida. Alabama is the only major conference unbeaten, the near-unanimous number one team in the country, and are coming off a statement rivalry game where they shut out Auburn, 36-0. They are also double digit underdogs.

The scary thing is, that's completely fair. Remember when 2005 USC was getting all that best-team-ever press until they lost to Texas? Well, even that team played three relatively close games against the good teams on their schedule. Yes, Florida has a loss, but they are much better than that USC team, and not just because they have a returning Heisman QB too.

Except Mississippi, Florida has beaten everyone on their schedule by over 20 points. They have allowed anyone within four touchdowns since September. Throwing out The Citadel, they have won seven straight games, against the SEC and at Florida State, by an average score of 49-11. This season, even with a loss, is almost as dominant as Meyer's 2004 Utes, only against arguably the best conference in college football. Florida is awesome. In my opinion, Alabama doesn't stand a chance. And neither will Oklahoma.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #20 Missouri. Kerry Meier, who my old roommate and I call "Sunshine" due to his resemblance to the Remember the Titans character, was one of the best QB recruits in Kansas history. Despite his talent, he lost his job last year to headier and more accurate Todd Reesing. So he moved to wide receiver, and he's done a great job. At Arrowhead last week against Mizzou, he had the game of his life, catching 14 passes, including the game-winner with 27 seconds remaining. It was great.

My point is this. I like Sunshine, but he's still a converted QB who went to Kansas to play football. If Missouri can't cover him, can they really expect to get any stops against Oklahoma, a team with 58, 62, 66, 65 and 61 points in their last five games? Of course not.

#17 Boston College vs. #25 Virginia Tech. It's just like last year's ACC Championship Game, only without Matt Ryan or VT's 8 NFL draft picks. Like last year, BC won the regular season version, but Tech has improved more in the meantime.

Picks: Florida (74/26), Oklahoma (84/16), Virginia Tech (50/50)

LW: No picks

LLW: 31-44

Overall Adj. WPct: 951-547, .635

On The Heisman, the Rose Bowl, and the BCS Buster

Shortened post this week, as reporting is on-location from a not even close to top three Ohio State-Michigan game. The three games this week are pretty clear.

#2 Texas Tech at #5 Oklahoma. Definitely shaping up to be the biggest regular game all year. Texas Tech puts themselves in the Big 12 title game, and probably the national championship game, with a win. Oklahoma would create a three-way tie at the top of the Big 12 South, although it's anybody's guess whether they'd take the tiebreaker away from Texas. For losing last, Texas Tech would probably be out.

As a side bonus, it might help decide the Heisman. If Oklahoma wins convincingly, Sam Bradford probably takes the lead. If Texas Tech wins, Harrell gains—although his top receiver Michael Crabtree could make a run if he gets a signature play against both Texas and Oklahoma. Style-wise, we already know they're both all about passing.

#14 BYU at #7 Utah. This decides the minor conference representative to the BCS. Win and in for Utah; lose and in for Boise State. Also, I have no idea who would win the three way tie in the Mountain West. Hopefully TCU, who I still think is the best team.

#15 Michigan State at #8 Penn State. Rose Bowl trip on the line for Penn State, and possibly Michigan State too, if Michigan upsets Ohio State earlier in the day. The key, as always for Michigan State, will be whether they can pass well enough to open space up for Javon Ringer. The Iowa game is the only one, including Ohio State, in which Penn State has really had a problem defending the pass.

Predictions: BYU is a good example of ranking inertia. They have played more close games than either of the other Mountain West elite, haven't beaten anyone close to a good team, and lost by 27 to TCU, but they're a team with tradition and a preseason ranking, so they're still ranked 14^th. Utah has wins over TCU and Pac 10 leader Oregon State. I'm taking the Utes. The other two games are trickier. Oklahoma and Penn State are more talented and at home, so they should be favored, but I think both are bigger favorites than they ought to be. Go, upsets.

Picks: Texas Tech (30/70), Utah (69/31), Michigan State (14/86).

LW: 27-96

Overall Adj. WPct: 920-503, .647

On The Pitiful ACC, and Technicalities

The first sentence of my last post is shamefully unclear. When I wrote "I didn't mean to leave this till now, but I might as well have," what I meant was "I forgot I was going to write about the Thursday game until half an hour before kickoff, but that has to do with the fact that neither this Thursday game nor the Saturday games this week are very exciting." And they're not. Nobody plays anybody. Except kind of in the ACC, where there are enough mediocre teams that half the conference is still in it, so it's almost impossible not to match some of them against each other. When College GameDay is broadcasting from unranked Boston College at #19 Florida State, and you can't really blame them, you know it's a bad week.

#16 North Carolina at Maryland. This is big because of tiebreakers. In one half of the ACC, Maryland is tied with Florida State and Wake Forest with two ACC losses. In the other half, UNC and Miami have two losses. But Maryland has beaten Wake, and UNC has beaten Miami. So the winner of this game controls their fate.

Another quick point I'd like to make about the ACC. One of my friends, a Virginia fan, and I had a serious discussion about whether winning the ACC title is even a good thing. Would you rather be a 20 point underdog in the Orange Bowl or drop to one you might actually win? We were on the verge of deciding it might be best to lose the ACC Championship Game or something until he said something like, "Who am I kidding? We'd get crushed in a reasonable bowl anyway." So the ACC may end up sending a team that wouldn't like their chances against someone like the SEC #5. Thank God it's finally basketball season.

#11 Ohio State at Illinois. I could have put another game here, but there's no unequivocally better one, and this gives me a chance to talk about a fun BCS technicality. Conventional wisdom is that only one small conference team has a chance of making the BCS, because no matter how worthy a second team is, they'll never be a draw on par with a comparable major conference team. But the BCS at-large teams must come from the Top 14, and no conference can send more than two teams.

This is currently Alabama, Texas Tech, Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, USC, Utah, Penn State, Boise State, Georgia, Ohio State, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Ball State. Assuming two of the four at large will come from the SEC and Big 12, the other two must be filled by some combination of Ohio State and small conference teams. The next five offer no help. There's Michigan State, who will drop if they lose to Penn State, North Carolina and Florida State, who will either lose and drop or win the ACC and be in automatically, and BYU and TCU, who are in the Mountain West.

So if Ohio State loses to Illinois or Michigan, the BCS may be forced to take two small conference teams. On the flip side, if they win out, they are almost guaranteed an at-large bid. So if you are a Boise State, Ball State, or Cinderella fan, you should root against the Buckeyes.

Predictions: North Carolina has lost to Virginia Tech when their QB got injured and the backup turned the game over, and to Virginia in overtime after giving up the tying score in the final minute. Maryland has lost to Middle Tennessee State, 31-10 to Virginia, and after being almost doubled up in yardage to Virginia Tech. I know who I'm taking. Illinois is dangerous, as one of those teams who should be much better than they are. But after losing last year, Ohio State can't take them lightly. Coupled with the Buckeyes' dismantling of Michigan State and Northwestern recently, it's hard to pick the upset. Besides, Ohio State-Michigan needs a good plot, and can the Wolverines knock Ohio State out of the BCS is a good one.

Picks: North Carolina (57/43), Ohio State (73/27)

LW: 81-51

Overall AdjWPct: 893-407, .687

On the National Bye Week, Part I

I didn't mean to leave this till now, but I might as well have. VT/Miami is tonight, and both are 3-2 in the ACC Coastal. Embarrassingly, this makes it a huge game for ACC title implications. Since no top 24 teams play each other this week (25 South Carolina at 4 Florida is all we get), it's definitely top three. I'm not really excited about this week.

I don't really know much about these teams, except that my friend the VT alum says the Hokies haven't thrown a TD pass to a wide receiver all year. They're due, right?

Pick: VT (39/61)

LW Results, Real Post: Forthcoming.

On Six Teams With Four Total Losses, Soon To Be Seven

There are several good games this week. But they start tonight, so this is going to be relatively short.

#9 Oklahoma State at #2 Texas Tech. By now, you know all about the Big 12, so I'm just going to add a couple of thoughts from the Texas/Texas Tech game. First, Texas Tech outgained the Longhorns by 200 yards, including 25 more rushing yards on the same number of attempts. TTU outrushing anyone is crazy enough, but Texas? Second, after their touchdown with :01 left, what possible reason did Tech have for kicking the extra point? You'd rather be up six for sure instead of going for seven? How do you possibly justify that? What if Texas had somehow scored? Coupled with the fact that the students had already rushed the field twice, that might have been up there with the most painful losses ever. Why kick? Why?

#1 Alabama at #16 LSU. Both of the top two have difficult games this week (and Penn State at Iowa's no freebie, either). Alabama hasn't been overwhelming since the first half of the Georgia game, playing close games against Kentucky and Mississippi before beating up on reeling Tennessee and hapless Arkansas State. Still, even in their close games they ran out to early leads. Alabama hasn't had to keep their composure in a tight road game, and the fiercely anti-Saban LSU crowd is one that could cause problems. LSU has struggled, but SEC teams, particularly ones with this much raw talent, are always dangerous.

#12 TCU at #8 Utah. For the second time this year, TCU matches up with a team from the Beehive State who has a perfect record and the inside track for a BCS bid. Unlike Brigham Young, Utah knows how good TCU is. The Utes have a very balanced team, with a solid offense and defense, both passing and running. However, unlike the 2004 version, who went unchallenged through the whole season including the bowl, they aren't great at anything. This has shown through in that four of their nine wins have been by one score. Still, they do consistently find a way to win, and they have home field. TCU is more one-dimensional on offense, but unlike Utah, they are great at something. They're only giving up 11 points a game, even counting Oklahoma's 35. They've held seven of ten opponents to a single score.

Predictions: Don't expect a letdown from Texas Tech. If you remember this is the matchup that resulted in 1328 total yards last year. Also remember, Harrell threw for 646 of those yards, but TTU lost anyway on a last-second drop by Crabtree. Those two will remember. This feels like a tough game for Alabama, but that assumes LSU is actually good. Before the Georgia game I argued they weren't, and their 52-38 home loss didn't really change my mind. And when Jarrett Lee makes up for his three picks that game, one of which was returned for a TD, by going 8/20 for 99 yards against Tulane, well, that doesn't inspire confidence. To pick tonight's game, ask yourself one simple question. If TCU had scheduled Weber State and Utah had scheduled Oklahoma on September 27 instead of the reverse, would anyone actually think Utah is nearly as good as TCU? Of course not, because TCU would be undefeated and outscoring teams by like 40-8, whereas Utah would have been considered to have been exposed by the only good team they've played so far, and be lucky to have just one loss.

Picks: Texas Tech (60/40), Alabama (59/41), TCU (51/49)

LW: 131-0

Overall Adj. WPct: 812-356, .695

On the BCS Picture, and Whether Texas Tech Can Do Anything About It

Regular readers (all four or five of you) should remember that the top three games discussed each week in this space are chosen with regard to BCS implications. Now that we're down to about a month of college football regular season, let's take a moment before starting to make a handy-dandy reference guide at how each team and conference's BCS prospects stack up. We'll start with the likely multi-bid leagues, who also include the top national title contenders, and work our way down.

Big 12: Almost certain for two bids. Texas is a title game lock if they win out, with whoever's standing from Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State looking strong for an at-large bid. If Texas Tech wins out, they might not pass Alabama and Penn State, but considering this would involve beating Texas and Oklahoma, they might. A three way tie at 7-1 in the Big 12 South would result in the highest coaches' poll team going, which would probably be Oklahoma. On the off chance the North champion wins the Big 12 title game, whoever of Oklahoma and Texas didn't play in that game will probably go.

SEC: Almost certain for two bids, also. This one's really simple. If Alabama goes undefeated, they'll go to the national championship. If they go undefeated until losing the SEC championship game but lose to the Florida/Georgia winner (hereafter FGW), they'll probably still get the at-large. If a one or two loss SEC West champ loses to FGW, then both FGW and FGL will go (unless FGL loses again in between). If the SEC West champ beats FGW, then FGL will probably jump them and go, which hardly seems fair. See? Simple.

Big Ten: Penn State needs to win their last three and get help, but I think as of right now they have a better chance of playing in the national title game than anyone. They only have to get past Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State to finish the regular season undefeated. If Texas or Alabama loses to any of Texas Tech/Big 12 Champ/LSU/Auburn/FGW/other, PSU is back in business. Also, Ohio State is probably win out and at-large. If they drop another game, the Big Ten might be out of luck.

Pac 10: USC is the clear conference favorite, and are probably second behind Oklahoma in the line of one loss teams. I don't think they should pass a potential one-loss Texas or Alabama, but they would. Oregon has an outside shot at an at-large birth, especially if USC were to sneak into the title game and the Rose Bowl wanted a Pac 10 replacement, but it's unlikely. This conference is really soft.

Big East/ACC: These conferences are disasters. There's not a BCS-worthy team in the bunch, which unfortunately won't keep them from sending two teams. The Big East is favoring West Virginia, Pitt and maybe Connecticut, with temporary favorite South Florida already 1-2 in conference. For the ACC, literally 10 of 12 teams are still in play for the conference title, with one of the other two being Clemson, who is the only team in the whole conference with BCS-level talent top to bottom. Terrible.

Others: There will almost certainly be someone from a minor conference involved in the title discussion. If the Utah/TCU winner wins out, they'll go. Boise State could go undefeated and miss out. Having beaten Oklahoma in the same situation two years ago, they'll complain, but maybe the WAC shouldn't suck so much. They could be bailed out if Utah beats TCU but drops the BYU finale. If all three stumble, Tulsa or, somehow, Ball State will sneak in. They're both way better than anyone they play, and could keep bubbling up the rankings if they keep winning.

If the season ended today, here's how the major bowls would most likely look:

BCS: Texas-Alabama

Rose: USC-Penn State

Sugar: Georgia-West Virginia

Fiesta: Oklahoma-Utah

Orange: Florida State-Ohio State

But it doesn't. So let's go to the games that can change it.

#1 Texas at #7 Texas Tech. We know all about Texas. They score points. Lots. Against everybody. And recently, they've always scored a lot of points against Texas Tech in particular, averaging 48 points in their last five matchups. The Red Raiders score in bunches too, most spectacularly recording touchdowns on eight straight drives (except one halted by halftime) to open the Kansas game last week. While Colt has been unstoppable, his last three opposite numbers have combined for 72% completions and 8 TDs against the Horns themselves, and Graham Harrell is more efficient then any of them. As usual, don't expect a lot of stops.

#6 Georgia vs. #8 Florida at Jacksonville. Two more teams I've said a lot about already. Since halftime of the Alabama game, the Bulldogs have been very good, holding down Tennessee and Vanderbilt with defense and putting up a whopping 52 points at LSU. For their own part, Florida has beaten Arkansas, LSU and Kentucky by 119 combined points since the Ole Miss loss. These teams also have a traditional rivalry beefed up by Georgia's full-team celebration early in a big win last year. Thanks to the talent and the emotion, this game, while featuring one-loss teams instead of undefeateds, will almost certainly be played at a higher level than Texas-Texas Tech.

West Virginia at #25 Connecticut. Yep, one of these games. Someone has to win the Big East, and this game's winner will be the new favorite. Both of these teams have been amazingly up and down. WVU was outgained by Syracuse in a 17-6 win; Connecticut both managed to beat Louisville while being nearly doubled up in yards and outgain North Carolina but lose 38-12. And that was in consecutive weeks. Bottom line: who knows which version of either of these teams will show up? And even if one brings their A-game, it might just lose it for them.

Predictions: Sorry, Colt. Texas Tech has the ability to execute on offense, the Longhorns are both mentally exhausted and have to feel like they're mostly out of the woods by now, and you know Mike Leach's team has saved every wrinkle they've ever practiced on both sides of the ball for just this occasion. It's time. In the SEC, you don't give up 500 yards and 38 points to LSU and expect to stop a rested, prepared and extremely motivated Florida the next week. It's that simple. For West Virginia, Noel Devine's Steve Slaton impression has been getting better by the week. They have no business losing to UConn.

Picks: Texas Tech (40/60), Florida (69/31), West Virginia (60/40)

LW: 121-0

Overall Adj. WPct: 681-356, .657

I didn't want to give away my picks on TT and Florida ahead of time, but here's my likeliest end of season scenario:

BCS: Penn State-Oklahoma

Rose: USC-Alabama

Sugar: Florida-West Virginia

Fiesta: Texas-TCU

Orange: Florida State-Ohio State

On the Top Games From the Top Conferences, and Fun with the BCS Rules

Here we go again. It seems like we've always got a Big 12 undefeated in a big game, either Ohio State or Penn State, and another pair of ranked Big 12 teams (this week, #8 Texas Tech-#23 Kansas) shunted off to the side. Got to love a season where a big SEC game barely makes the list, though.

Oh, before I start, a quick word about rankings. Originally, I was using the AP rankings because they're the ones quoted on ESPN. Then recently, I switched to the Coaches' Poll because it's in the BCS and the AP isn't. Starting this week, I will quote the BCS Top 25.

#6 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas. The Longhorns are up to their third of four consecutive games against top 12 teams (if Texas Tech wins this week), and they've looked awfully good twice so far. Against Oklahoma and Missouri, Texas has put up over 1000 yards, converted 64% of third downs, and committed no turnovers. Also, Colt completed 85% of his passes. Oklahoma State features a terrific offense themselves. Their best player is probably WR Dez Bryant, who has caught 45 of Oklahoma State's 97 completed passes and 11 of 14 passing touchdowns, but more importantly they average 283 yards rushing. That will be interesting, since Texas has held every opponent except UTEP under 50 yards rushing. Not that most of them have tried.

Not that it has anything to do with this game per se, but there's one more thing I just found out about. Suppose all the national title contenders except Texas take a loss between now and the end of the season, bringing Oklahoma back up to #2. Then suppose Texas loses a heartbreaker to multi-loss Missouri (or Kansas) in the Big 12 title game. They might not drop that far in the polls, and certainly with their brutal Big 12 South plus Kansas and Missouri plus the better one again schedule, the computers will still love them. If the final BCS puts Oklahoma 1^st and Texas 2^nd, that's the first priority. The Big 12 Champion would be barred from the BCS entirely. This won't happen, but it could.

#3 Penn State at #9 Ohio State. Both teams look pretty darn impressive now. Penn State has been good in every dimension. With only 2 INTs and 5 sacks, QB Daryll Clark has been taking care of the ball, and the balanced offense and D have done the rest. The run D has had some trouble against the mobility of Illinois and Michigan, which is a good sign for Ohio State: they have to be able to run. Pryor has still never had to throw 20 passes in a game.

#7 Georgia at #13 LSU. Both teams look to recover into the conference and national title races in the first of a pair of major games. Next week Georgia plays Florida, while the week after LSU hosts Alabama. These are balanced but not overwhelming squads, getting through the SEC efficiently but unspectacularly, except for tripping up against the other's big remaining hurdle.

It's also worth pointing out that while this is a national championship elimination game for both, Georgia but not LSU would still retain control of their own conference destiny with a loss. LSU would drop two games behind Alabama, whereas Georgia would only be one down to Florida, with a chance to win the head-to-head and get the tiebreaker.

Predictions: Texas has too much more talent than Oklahoma State to lose at home. Also, the Cowboys' defense hasn't shown a lot of evidence they're up to slowing Colt & Co. down. Penn State-Ohio State should be a great game, but I like PSU due to their demonstrated ability to make adjustments quickly. OSU is more limited in that regard simply due to personnel (i.e. Pryor). I also think Georgia will beat LSU, simply because LSU isn't that good. The Tigers haven't had a really convincing performance yet. Here's their resume: they've crushed a I-AA team and North Texas, both of which Sun Belt teams regularly do, beat 2-5 Mississippi State by 10, a team Georgia Tech and Tennessee both beat by 30, eked past Auburn and South Carolina, who are each 2-3 in SEC play, and got crushed by Florida. What's top 13 about that?

Picks: Texas (77/23), Penn State (54/46), Georgia (48/52)

LW: 119-0

Overall Adj. WPct: 560-356, .611