On This Particular NBA Draft (NBA)

OK, so I’m going to see if I can get through every single team here. I have no idea how long this post is going to be, but brace yourself, it will not be short.

The Nuggets, Cavs, Raptors and Pacers did nothing. They should be unaffected.

The Spurs drafted a couple more foreigners. They should also be unaffected.

The Wizards drafted a couple of guys from California, but I don’t know how great they’re going to be. The Mavericks drafted a guy from Nevada, who is probably going to be all right. Not much to change on a 67 win team, though. The ruling on both of these teams: dressed up a little, largely unaffected.

The Jazz drafted some guy who scored like half of Rice’s points. That’s actually someone they could maybe use. Still, unaffected.

OK, this is getting boring. Let’s try the Trail Blazers. Definitely affected. Oden was inevitable, but then Portland really got going. They bought two European guards at the end of the first round—yes, you can buy and sell draft picks in the NBA—and added Taurean Green and Demetris Nichols to the backcourt too, apparently just for the hell of it. They also managed to get Josh McRoberts in the second round, even though almost everyone thought he’d go in the first (and he would’ve been in the lottery last year).

Oh yeah, and they traded the current best player on their team, too. Zach Randolph may be what basketball insiders refer to as a “lunatic,” but he can average a 20-10 and be the dominant offensive post player to go with Oden’s dominant D. And they’re giving him away for Steve Francis and Channing Frye? What gives? Is it just the insanity factor?

Nope. Randolph has four years remaining on a huge contract, and Francis only has two years left on his. Also, I believe Raef LaFrentz and his absurd deal ends after 2008-09 as well. Since rookies are not eligible for mega-bucks contract extensions until their fifth year, this means that last year’s Blazer duo of #2 LaMarcus Aldridge and Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy will still be counted on their rookie contracts. I could be wrong, but does this put the Blazers under the cap? If so, they could add a premier free agent (and who wouldn’t want to come) to the lineup below. Bear in mind NBA players start to peak around their third or fourth season:

G Jack (5th year)
G Roy (4th)
F Webster (5th)
F Aldridge (4th)
C Oden (3rd)

Bench Frye (5th), Green/McRoberts/Foreign Guards (3rd)

Now that’s a team. They’ll both be cohesive for having played together for years (ask the Pistons and Spurs if that’s important), and then all peak at pretty much the same time. I can’t wait.

Oh, and the NBA uses a soft cap. So when all the extensions do kick in, the only upper bound on how much they can spend to re-sign their guys is how much money Paul Allen has. Which is a lot.

On the other side of the trade, the Knicks are apparently determined to stay in salary cap purgatory forever. Zach Randolph is a little better than Eddy Curry, although exactly the same type of player. And even more expensive. I think the best case for the Knicks is that Randolph leads them into the end of the East playoffs, thus depriving them of a lottery pick and forcing them into another expensive quick-fix. I love how the Knicks’ best and worst cases always seem to blend together.

Let’s see, I don’t think the Rockets or Magic did anything interesting…or, while we’re in Florida, the Heat. If Daequan Cook has an impact for Miami next year, it will probably be in the dunk contest. The Lakers drafted Javaris Crittenton, a project at PG. It’s a dare to Kobe, I think, to make a pick both at the same position they took last year and without a high probability of the new player stepping in and contributing immediately. Apparently they think he doesn’t want any help after all.

The Pistons and Suns both set themselves for one more run next year. Rodney Stuckey, by all accounts, is a great fit for Detroit, but since he was on Eastern Washington and I’ve never ever seen him before, I’ll just take Jay Bilas’ or somebody’s word for it. I think Afflalo is their type of player too. But the perfect fit to team is DJ Strawberry to Phoenix. He is as good as any two-guard in the draft on pure speed and athleticism, plays good defense and scores most of his points in transition. Marcus Banks, you can just give him your jersey now.

Now let’s go back through the lottery for a minute. My hypothesis that Al Horford is going to be the bust of the draft gained a lot of momentum the instant he put an Atlanta Hawks cap on, although Atlanta sadly took Acie Law IV instead of Crittenton. Law deserves better. The Grizzlies took Conley, which can’t make Kyle Lowry too happy. I did like the pick, though. Yi Jianlian wanted to play pretty much anywhere but Milwaukee, so (surprise!) the Bucks decided to go with the Asian player who didn’t want to come and who may be Danny Almonte-ing his birth certificate, instead of, say, anybody else. The Timberwolves very sensibly went with Corey Brewer, which ensured that Joakim Noah (both Florida guys would’ve been prime anybody else candidates, by the way) would go from probable top-3 overall last year to third picked from his own team. How dare he win a national championship again? The Bobcats must have pleased their fans by staying in-state to draft the best pure non-Oden/Durant talent in the draft, Brandon Wright out of UNC, so of course they promptly traded him (more on that later). After Noah finally went to Chicago, who is good for a reason, the Kings decided to take Spencer Hawes at #10, possibly because they couldn’t decide which of the five wing players who went 12-16 would help them the most. They are bad for a reason.

Of those five wings players, Julian Wright landed in the best situation. The Hornets’ lineup is a really effective team. In the post, Tyson Chandler provides rebounding and defense, while David West takes care of the scoring and helps on the glass. Julian Wright is a great passer and good defender, but doesn’t have a consistent jump shot. But that’s okay, because on the other wing, Peja Stojakovic can’t do much besides shoot. And Chris Paul can score and distribute with the best of them. In the unlikely event of a healthy season, New Orleans will be very good.

The other wings not mentioned already are the Clippers’ Al Thornton, who is already about as good as he’s ever going to be, and the Sixers’ Thaddeus Young, who is not even close to as good as he’s going to be. Not coincidentally, the Clippers are the one expecting to decent this year. Philadelphia is building for the future with Andre Iguodala, Young, and other draft picks such as Jason Smith. Like Stuckey, I have never seen Smith play; he is supposedly a skilled and athletic 7-footer, but considering Colorado State was a poor team in the Mountain West, I have trouble believing it.

In Noah, the Bulls added another asset. Last year, they were reluctant to pull the trigger on any deal for a superstar that required them to give up rookie Tyrus Thomas, but Noah’s presence makes that more possible. Alternatively, Ben Wallace could be packaged with Luol Deng or Ben Gordon, in order to match salaries with a super-duper star like Kobe or KG. If the Bulls stand pat, Noah and Wallace will give team an unmatched one-two punch in shotblocking and post defense. And hair.

Also, in an underrated move, the Bulls took Oklahoma State’s JamesOn Curry. Having apparently improved his decision-making since he had a scholarship offer from North Carolina revoked for selling marijuana, Curry didn’t hire an agent. That way, if he had gone undrafted, he could have returned to college, a la Randolph Morris last season. But since he was selected in the second (non-guaranteed contract) round, Curry will get an early start on what I’m sure will be a long and fulfilling career in Europe. Especially if he lands with a team in Holland.

On a related note, the Nets’ only pick, Sean Williams, was kicked out of Boston College for drug-related reasons. Last year’s Williams, Marcus, had his problems with stealing laptops. And their old Williams, Jayson, had gun issues. So it looks like New Jersey is headed in the right direction.

OK, two more trades and we’re there. As discussed before, the Warriors acquired Brandon Wright for Jason Richardson and a pick (which became Jermareo Davidson, which may or may not ever matter). This is both eerily similar to last year’s Shane Battier/Rudy Gay trade, and completely different. This time, the playoff team gave up the veteran for the young guy with long arms, great potential, and a distressingly indifferent attitude toward the game. Last year, the Rockets got a glue guy who helped them win 50 games and get the #4 seed, and the Grizzlies got a raw but high-potential guy who helped them lose 60 games and get the #4 pick. Everyone’s happy. Now the Bobcats are paying $12 million for Richardson, who might get them into the edge of the playoffs, but probably not quite, and the Warriors are giving up Richardson, without whom, especially considering Portland, Seattle and New Orleans promise to be improved, they might stay at the edge of the playoffs, but probably not quite. Everyone’s going to be sad.

Last, but certainly not least, the Sonics decided to build around Durant the same way Portland built around Oden—by trading their current star. Boston, foiled in their efforts to make a panic trade for Garnett or Jermaine O’Neal, decided to make one for Ray Allen (and a second-rounder). Now, for Seattle, this trade does make some sense. It’s a classic sell-high, as Allen as at the end of his peak. Delonte West replaces a lot of Allen’s shooting and can play point if needed, and Wally Szczerbiak can also score, and his contract is quicker than Allen’s to expire. Also, getting the #5 pick is always good, even if I’m not totally sold on taking Jeff Green ahead of Brewer/Noah/Wright/Wright.

On the other hand, beyond the obvious benefit of uniting Allan Ray and Ray Allen at a single position, which is awesome, what do the Celtics get out of this? For this answer, I turned to my statistical ratings. I assumed everyone stays healthy, which is generous, since Allen’s lower body has been mostly reconstructed. I also used conservative estimates for how good Jeff Green is going to be, frankly because I wanted to give the C’s every benefit of the doubt. According to my ratings, this trade will make Boston about—drumroll, please—two games better in 2007-08. Two. Please note the Celtics were 24-58 last year. Now, I’m not saying that we can pencil in 26-56. Jefferson and Rondo will continue to improve, and Pierce probably won’t miss 35 games again. But, at the risk of belaboring the obvious, that would have been true whether they made a trade or not. And within two years, when Green and West will be better than they are now and Allen will be worse, the Celtics’ gain should be around zero. Unless Big Baby Davis, who Boston took with the Sonics’ pick, turns into a monster. Or if Allan Ray will be able to step into Ray Allen’s shoes. Then all bets are off.