On Week 6

Now we’re talking. After a month of having to take any decent matchups we could find, we’re finally to the point where we have to turn serious games away. Nebraska’s win over Missouri Thursday night didn’t make the list, and neither will a handful of other games worth checking in on. Boston College-Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech-Florida State in the ACC, Michigan-Iowa in the Big Ten and Oregon-UCLA in the Pac 10 all have conference implications, even if they’re not nationally big games. For nationally big games, look to the SEC.

#1 Florida at #4 LSU. If there’s one thing that proves this season is wide open, it’s that even two undefeated SEC heavyweights have flaws. LSU put together their most complete game of the season last week to beat Georgia, but they only put up six points in a dominant first half, surrendered the lead twice in the fourth quarter and got an assist from a phantom excessive celebration penalty to finish it out. Previously, they’d struggled with both Washington and Mississippi State. Florida has most of last year’s team, which means the Gators are proven, but this year they’ve only played one decent team, Tennessee, and the Vols defense gave them trouble.

That said, these are clearly two of the most talented teams in college football. Florida doesn’t play Alabama, Ole Miss or Auburn, so a win today practically guarantees them a spot in the SEC Championship game. Of course, the flip side of this is that LSU’s road to the title game is that much harder, because they’re the only West contender that can pick up a loss to Florida. If they beat the Gators, though, computer rankings and tiebreakers will smile upon them.

#3 Alabama at #20 Mississippi. Time to test out the value of home field advantage. Alabama has been awesome so far. Everybody knew their defense was for real, but they’ve also put up 40 points a game, including 498 yards and 37 minutes of possession against Virginia Tech. Ole Miss has been struggling, with a terrible offensive showing at South Carolina followed by three more interceptions in an unimpressive win at Vanderbilt.

But there are a few reasons this game could be closer than it looks. First, Mississippi’s struggles have been on the road. This is their first big home game of the year, and the fans have been waiting all season for it. Second, Alabama’s offense isn’t that experienced, and even in the Virginia Tech game, they scored eighteen of their points in the fourth quarter when VT was wearing down. Third, and most important, Houston Nutt’s teams show up for big SEC games. Last year, Ole Miss upset Florida, lost just 24-20 to Alabama and beat LSU 31-13—all on the road. In 2007, Nutt’s Arkansas team beat LSU in Baton Rouge, almost knocking the Tigers out of the national title game. How many coaches have ever beaten consecutive national champions?

Wisconsin at #9 Ohio State. Two of the three Big Ten teams without a conference loss meet in Columbus. For Wisconsin, it’s a chance to prove they’re a team to be taken seriously, a point that four close wins and blowing out Wofford hasn’t quite yet made. For Ohio State, on the fringes of the national championship race, it’s the best chance for a statement game until November, where Penn State, Iowa and Michigan are waiting.

On the field, it’s Big Ten football: all about the run game and the turnover battle. In last year’s game, the teams combined for about 400 yards rushing and 250 passing. And this year, both squads have played in turnover-heavy ballgames. Wisconsin has 15 takeaways in 5 games, but 10 giveaways. Ohio State is at 12 and 8. If there really are four or five more turnovers this week, it’ll be an interesting game.

Picks:

Florida (74/26). The other way to look at Florida’s struggles against Tennessee is that they don’t need Tebow-like production to win a game by 10. Even if his concussion keeps him out, Brantley—and more importantly, Urban Meyer—have had a bye week to prepare for this one. Giving Meyer a big game off a bye week is just unfair. On the defensive side of the ball, UF has been great, and the first three and a half quarters of the Georgia game don’t inspire confidence that LSU will move the ball too well.

Alabama (64/36). After all that arguing that Ole Miss is dangerous, which they are, I have to go with ‘Bama. The Ole Miss offense hasn’t been in sync at all, and there’s a decent chance the Tide defense wins it single-handedly. I know this is basically how the Rebels had been playing when they shocked Florida, but still. If there’s a 30% chance that Mississippi’s offense really is the one from the South Carolina/Vandy games, and otherwise the game’s a tossup, then the smart money is on Alabama.

Wisconsin (16/84). Yes, Ohio State is the better team, and in the Horseshoe. But at five to one (a -15.5 spread), you better have a team you trust, and that’s not the Buckeyes. So far, Ohio State has beaten Navy by a 2 point conversion play, lost to a USC team missing their best player and their starting QB, and then taken care of business against Toledo and the two last place teams in the Big Ten. Up against an undefeated team with a history of playing the Buckeyes tough, 84/16 is high.

Last Week: 97-73

Year to Date: 268-450, .373

On Week 5

Last week, I picked very poorly, but I won’t take it personally. Lots of good teams had rough weeks too. It was already obvious that the national championship spots are Texas’ and the SEC champion’s to lose, but now that’s basically all we’ve got. I mean, Boise State is fifth right now. They’re nice, but top 5? Already?

In a season like this, the only thing to do is keep it simple. So the three games we’ll pick this week are the only three games between Top 25 teams.

#4 LSU at #18 Georgia. Not only is Boise State fifth right now, but LSU is fourth, which might be even worse. So far, the Tigers have been outgained by both Washington and Mississippi State. Not that those teams are awful—Washington beat USC, after all—but we should be able to find at least four more convincing teams than that. Georgia’s been in their share of entertaining games too, with the opener at Oklahoma State, two wins that came down to the wire and a third 52-41 over Arkansas. It’s hard to say which team needs this win more. Georgia has a loss already, but LSU has Florida next week and then the full West gauntlet, including Alabama and Ole Miss on the road. Wicked conference.

#7 USC at #24 California. This game looked a lot cooler before the 42-3 beatdown Oregon put on Cal last week, but it’s still one of the biggest games on the Pac 10 schedule. A Cal win would revive their season and possibly bury USC in the process—that would be two conference losses. USC has pressure to win and win impressively. If there’s going to be a one-loss team in the national title, the Trojans are always going to be in the discussion. The loss was early and came with the starting QB and All-American safety out, two factors that could give voters some sympathy. But they need to get some style points in their remaining chances, which mostly come down to this game, Notre Dame and Oregon, all on the road. Last year, USC crushed Cal with defense, holding them to 27 yards rushing and 165 overall, which is even rougher than the Golden Bears got last week in Oregon.

#8 Oklahoma at #17 Miami. Except for the conference implications, this game is sort of a clone of the last one. Oklahoma is the national title contender who lost a game without their QB, and is trying to get back in the national title discussion. Miami is the trendy team who got wrecked last week on the road, and is trying to salvage respectability. The differences favor Miami’s having a shot, though. Bradford still isn’t back for the Sooners, and Miami’s loss was more reasonable than California’s. Virginia Tech is good, and Miami’s pass attack was grounded in part by the fact that it was pouring in Blacksburg. Better conditions, and that game might have been different. That said, the Sooners are awfully good, winning their last two games 109-0, including one over a pretty decent Tulsa team.

Picks:

LSU (39/61). Neither team has been totally convincing, but Georgia’s been squeezing by less talented teams than the Tigers regularly. While their offense has been really good, it sputtered against Oklahoma State.

USC (64/36). Again, keep it simple. USC always beats Cal, USC would probably still be undefeated if Barkley could have played against Washington, and USC’s giving up ten points a game, while Cal put up three last week.

Oklahoma (73/27). Sure, Miami could keep it close, and the counter to how impressive Oklahoma’s looked is that they’ve only played one serious game so far this year, and they lost it. But, again, keep it simple. They’ve been preparing, they know they’ve used up their margin for error, they have Baylor between this and Texas, so it’s not a trap game. Miami’s rep came from beating a Jekyll-and-Hyde Florida State team, which now has been done twice by teams from southern Florida, and Georgia Tech, who is a smart team with limited talent. There’s nothing in there that says they can play with the Sooners.

Last Week: 0-175

Year to Date: 171-377, .312

On Week 4

This week is mostly devoid of big games. There’s only one pairing of ranked teams. For now, it’s mostly about giving highly rated teams a chance to prove they don’t belong after all. Ole Miss gave a clinic in this Thursday night.

Full conference play will come soon; these guys can’t duck big games forever. For now, though, all we’ve got is a trio of 3:30 kickoffs:

#9 Miami at #11 Virginia Tech. First of all, we should thank these teams. Unlike possibly every other good team in the nation, each of them is playing their third serious game in four weeks tomorrow. Miami outgunned Florida State and crushed a one-dimensional Georgia Tech. VT lost to Alabama—no shame there—and survived Nebraska on a miracle last drive. The Hokies have been inconsistent on offense, but their D is the best Miami’s seen yet, and Blacksburg is always a tough place to pick up a road win. The winner here will have the inside track to the ACC’s BCS berth.

#6 California at Oregon. Cal is one of those teams that’s difficult to judge early on. Are their blowout wins because they haven’t played anybody, or are they actually that good? They have 15 starters back from a nine win team last year, and Jahvid Best is in his second year of putting up huge numbers, so maybe they are. If they are, they get their shot at USC next week.

On the other hand, Oregon is a team we know about. They were comprehensively outplayed by Boise State, but came back to beat Purdue and Utah, two solid teams. The Boise game was on the road, though. They’re at home tomorrow, where they're more dangerous.

#15 TCU at Clemson. I picked this one because after BYU’s own brush with the ACC, the Horned Frogs are one of the leading non-BCS teams left, and the MWC really needs some redemption. TCU hasn’t proven anything this year, with one win against a I-AA team and another against Virginia, which is even worse. Clemson is coming off a tough loss at Georgia Tech and a big win over Boston College, in which they held BC to four first downs. A win would push the Tigers back towards the Top 25 and co-favorite status, along with Florida State, in their half of the ACC (opposite the Miami-VT winner). A TCU win would establish them as the Mountain West favorite, and next in line for the BCS bid if Boise State falters.

Picks:

Miami (55/45). Yes, they’re on the road, but the Hurricanes are the better team. Miami tore up Georgia Tech, and the FSU win looks even better now that the Seminoles dismantled Brigham Young. For their part, the case against Virginia Tech only gets stronger every time I’ve made it: they were outclassed against Alabama and Nebraska’s Roy Helu, Jr. ran all over them. Also, Tyrod Taylor’s still not completing half of his passes, and he’s taken 11 sacks.

California (66/34). Cal beat Oregon last year and has more returning players, and in their opener the Ducks were just no match for Boise State. This would be a huge upset.

Clemson (54/46). This is another of those games, like Nebraska/VT last week, that I’d rather not pick. I can see both sides, and I’ve been going back and forth between them. But for the record here’s Clemson’s: their D has been deadly the last six quarters, against decent teams. TCU wasn’t that convincing against Virginia and allowed 21 non-garbage points against Texas State. TCU has one member of their front seven back from last year, and Clemson’s got a veteran O-line and CJ Spiller. Clemson has better recruits, more returning starters, is starting to get it together, and is at home. TCU’s case…well, hopefully for me you won’t see it for yourself tomorrow.

Last Week: 38-108

Year to Date: 171-202, .458

On Week 3

There are a number of decent games this week, but no huge ones. The best outside the top 3 are rivalry games that aren’t expected to be close: Tennessee-Florida and Texas Tech-Texas. Utah and Boise State, the two BCS busters of past seasons who are looking strong again, also have relatively tough opponents up next in Oregon and Fresno State. But the biggest three are these:

#14 Georgia Tech at #20 Miami. In Clemson and Florida State, these teams have one good conference win apiece already, and a second could put them into co-favorite status in the ACC Coastal with Virginia Tech—a game that will come next week for Miami. (Side note: how about Miami’s schedule? Their first four games are at FSU, GT, at VT, Oklahoma). Last year, the Jackets took this won with nearly 500 yards on the ground and fewer than 50 in the air. You know what they’re going to do.

#19 Nebraska at #13 Virginia Tech. Nebraska has lit up two Sun Belt teams so far, but that won’t impress fans in Lincoln. The Huskers haven’t been ranked above #14 or even beaten a top 20 team in a half-decade, and this is their chance to change that around. Nebraska will be favored in every other game they play until November. For their part, the Hokies still need to make up for the loss to Alabama and get right headed into ACC play, where they’ll also face a manageable schedule.

Florida State at #7 BYU. The difference between this and the Boise State and Utah games is that BYU is a legitimate national title contender. A win here, and they will have two against Cadillac programs, including preseason #3 Oklahoma, and have two more games, both at home, against ranked teams: TCU and Utah. That’s a stronger profile than the one that almost took 2007 West Virginia into the championship game. Suppose only one major conference team runs the table. Considering fellow Mountain West-er Utah has been hugely impressive in two BCS trips, wouldn’t BYU have a case to get in? If they win their big games in style, I say they would. And that makes this game count.

Picks:

Miami (62/38). Miami is better right now than Clemson, and GT barely weathered the Tigers at home. If they get down, they cannot pass their way back into a game.

Nebraska (35/65). I could make either case, but here’s Nebraska’s: They scored 34 points a game last year, even throwing out the weak out of conference schedule, and VT got tripled up in yardage by Alabama. Also, the Huskers have had two weak opponents and follow the Hokies with Louisiana (Lafayette) and a bye, so this is their only focus of the first five weeks of the season.

BYU (73/27). Because BYU’s good this year.

Last Week: 63-59

Year to Date: 133-94, .586

On Week 2

Like last year, the season started out with several good matchups, but teams mostly went back to cupcakes for their second game. There’s only one pairing of ranked teams this week, so we’ll start there.

#3 USC at #8 Ohio State. After last year’s beating, Ohio State looked like they might have been closing the gap. USC lost eight defensive starters and turned to a freshman QB, whereas Ohio State has a veteran D and an extra year of experience for Terrell Pryor. However, they were unconvincing against Navy last week, while USC’s game against San Jose State was too easy to be informative. Obviously, the winner of this game joins Florida and Texas at the forefront of the national title discussion.

Clemson at #15 Georgia Tech. As usual, the ACC is wide open, especially since the preseason division favorites, Virginia Tech and Florida State, lost their openers. These teams each have the talent and experience to push those teams, and Clemson in particular would be looking at a favorable schedule after this game, missing VT and hosting the Seminoles.

#18 Notre Dame at Michigan. Notre Dame is loaded with talent – their last four recruiting classes have been in the national top ten – and, in smoking Nevada, they looked like a team ready to show it. They’ve also put together an uncharacteristically soft schedule, with USC their only opponent in the current Top 25. Michigan is another talented team looking to produce more on the field this year, cruising to an easy opening win of their own. They added two highly rated freshman QBs to an otherwise complete set of returning offensive starters, and Rich Rodriguez’s dual threat offense looked much sharper than last year. A win here could propel them to making noise in the Big Ten, where they will host both Penn State and Ohio State.

Picks:

USC (71/29). The Trojans’ inexperience at key spots is enough to start me thinking about leaning Buckeyes, but then I remember last year was 35-3 and Ohio State struggled last week with a service academy. Sometimes it’s best not to overthink it.

Georgia Tech (66/34). Two to one is about right. Clemson has the ability, and their O-line and run game matches up well. But GT is at home, has more players back and isn’t starting a freshman QB off the baseball team. Clemson may well be better by the end of the year, but I don’t think they’re there yet.

Notre Dame (59/41). I’m not sure what the question is here. Notre Dame is more athletic, more prepared, and looked more impressive in their opener. Michigan seems a year away, like ND last year. This has all the makings of a statement game for the Irish, and I think it would be a much bigger upset than Clemson/GT if it goes the other way.

Last Week: 70-35, .667

Year to Date: 70-35, .667

On CFB 2009, and Week 1

This year, the preview will be combined with the Week 1 preview, for two reasons:

1. I’m bad at picking.
2. This year is pretty straightforward anyway.

Let’s go over what I mean in 2., conference by conference.

The SEC is by far the best, deepest league in the nation, and Florida is by far the best, deepest team in the SEC. Simple.

The Big 12 South has Texas and Oklahoma. Whoever wins that game really shouldn’t lose any other game on their schedule, except of course for Florida in the title game.

The Pac-10, Big Ten and ACC are pinning their hopes almost entirely on USC, Ohio State and Virginia Tech. If recent history is any indication, Ohio State will lose to USC and/or a Big Ten road game, USC will drop some conference game for which they forget to show up, and Tyrod Taylor will lose the Hokies at least one game.

The Big East and Big 12 North are filled with okay teams of approximately equal quality. Nothing to see here.

Boise State and the last one standing among Utah/TCU/BYU are the outsiders with a BCS shot. Also, Notre Dame has a shot at being pretty good.

See? Nothing new here.

Now, on to Week 1. As you may remember, the rules are to pick the three games with the greatest BCS implications, with a special eye to the championship game as a tiebreaker. This usually, but not always, coincides with the best matchups of the week.

Our Week 1 undercard includes #8 Mississippi at Memphis, to see how good the Rebels really are, Miami at #18 Florida State, to see if either of them is actually going to translate all that talent into ACC contention, and #20 Brigham Young at #3 Oklahoma, to see if Oklahoma looks like a national championship contender, and whether BYU might win the MWC and crash the BCS.

#5 Alabama v. #7 Virginia Tech. This is the biggest game on each of these team’s regular season schedule. The ACC lacks the star power for a convincing in-conference win, and Alabama misses Florida and Georgia this year. A big win could get the ball rolling to run the table, like Alabama’s win over Clemson in a similar game last year, and the loser will have a tough time regaining that respect, like VT after the LSU game two years ago.

#16 Oregon at #14 Boise State. One of USC’s potential competitors opens tomorrow night against one of the most impressive BCS busters in recent years. Oregon, to their credit, isn’t playing a single gimme game all year. They follow this one with Purdue and Utah at home before entering Pac-10 play. BSU, on the other hand, hardly has anything but from here on out, playing Miami OH, Bowling Green, UC-Davis and the WAC. If they win, they’re in the early driver’s seat for the small conference BCS bid.

#13 Georgia at #9 Oklahoma State. This game is partially about bragging rights for the conferences. With Florida, Oklahoma and Texas in their divisions, both these teams are longshots for the BCS. This year, things aren’t easier. Georgia must replace a QB and RB taken in the first round of the NFL Draft, and Oklahoma State has difficulty recruiting against Oklahoma and Texas, and lost more players overall. Neither can really afford to start the season with a quality loss.

Picks:

Alabama (70/30). If I’m going to pick an ACC team to take down an SEC contender with that kind of defense, it won’t be one with Tyrod Taylor under center.

Boise State (60/40). There’s a reason most teams won’t schedule road games against good small conference teams, and the Ducks are about to be reminded what it is.

Georgia (35/65). This game could go either way, but Oklahoma Stat’s bowl loss against Oregon gives the image of a team that was overachieving, whereas Georgia seemed flaky but sometimes dominant. They’ll be back this year.

On Dominant Teams, Sunshine, and How There's No Easy Way to Save Texas

Sometimes playoffs take care of themselves. Alabama-Florida, like Ohio State-Michigan two years ago, is and deserves to be a national semifinal. If only Oklahoma and Texas were in different halves of the Big 12, we'd have our other one.

This season is interesting in that my favored playoff system—the top four conference champions go—fails this year for the first time since I started keeping track of it. I leave out top four teams all the time, but usually they already lost a "quarterfinal," meaning they lost directly to a conference opponent ahead of them. This is the first time the system would have left out a team who won a quarterfinal. Poor Texas.

For what it's worth, this year this system would invite the Florida/Alabama winner, Oklahoma, USC and Utah. If Oklahoma and/or USC lose today, Penn State would be first in line and probably Boise State second for their spots. The unhappiest person in the country would probably be that Texas DB who dropped the game-sealing INT on Texas Tech's final drive. Actually, that might be true under any system.

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Florida. Alabama is the only major conference unbeaten, the near-unanimous number one team in the country, and are coming off a statement rivalry game where they shut out Auburn, 36-0. They are also double digit underdogs.

The scary thing is, that's completely fair. Remember when 2005 USC was getting all that best-team-ever press until they lost to Texas? Well, even that team played three relatively close games against the good teams on their schedule. Yes, Florida has a loss, but they are much better than that USC team, and not just because they have a returning Heisman QB too.

Except Mississippi, Florida has beaten everyone on their schedule by over 20 points. They have allowed anyone within four touchdowns since September. Throwing out The Citadel, they have won seven straight games, against the SEC and at Florida State, by an average score of 49-11. This season, even with a loss, is almost as dominant as Meyer's 2004 Utes, only against arguably the best conference in college football. Florida is awesome. In my opinion, Alabama doesn't stand a chance. And neither will Oklahoma.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #20 Missouri. Kerry Meier, who my old roommate and I call "Sunshine" due to his resemblance to the Remember the Titans character, was one of the best QB recruits in Kansas history. Despite his talent, he lost his job last year to headier and more accurate Todd Reesing. So he moved to wide receiver, and he's done a great job. At Arrowhead last week against Mizzou, he had the game of his life, catching 14 passes, including the game-winner with 27 seconds remaining. It was great.

My point is this. I like Sunshine, but he's still a converted QB who went to Kansas to play football. If Missouri can't cover him, can they really expect to get any stops against Oklahoma, a team with 58, 62, 66, 65 and 61 points in their last five games? Of course not.

#17 Boston College vs. #25 Virginia Tech. It's just like last year's ACC Championship Game, only without Matt Ryan or VT's 8 NFL draft picks. Like last year, BC won the regular season version, but Tech has improved more in the meantime.

Picks: Florida (74/26), Oklahoma (84/16), Virginia Tech (50/50)

LW: No picks

LLW: 31-44

Overall Adj. WPct: 951-547, .635